Comments on Import and Export Data in March: Export Resilience Continued in March, but Beware of the Impact of the Epidemic and Logistics in April

Summary of the report:

China’s March exports (in U.S. dollars) increased by 14.7% year-on-year, higher than market expectations of 13.1%, a slight decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still at a relatively high level in history, and its resilience is still strong. Although the epidemic broke out in many places in China in March, the freight logistics index declined to a certain extent, especially in the second half of the year, the national freight flow index fell by 11%. However, since the logistics deterioration mainly occurred in the second half of March, and the port may have a certain supply of goods reserves before, so The impact on exports in March appears to be limited. In April, with the severity of the epidemic, the freight flow index further deteriorated, down 31% year-on-year.Although the State Council’s joint prevention and control mechanism emphasized on April 11 that expressway service areas, ports, railway stations andaviation airport. However, from the perspective of the national logistics situation, as of April 12, there has been no sign of improvement, which is expected to be a drag on exports in April. Throughout the year, with the gradual deepening of the Fed’s interest rate hike process, the tightening of overseas liquidity will gradually inhibit the growth of total demand, and the year-on-year growth rate of total global exports will slow down, which is also the proportion of China’s exports in 2022. main challenge. But at the same time, it can be seen that the proportion of China’s exports in the total global trade is still at a historically high level, which also shows that in the context of repeated epidemics, the global supply chain problems remain, China’s export dividends are still there, and the logic of production substitution has not been damaged. An important force supporting China’s export resilience in 2022.

In terms of export by region, among the growth rates of China’s exports to the three major regions of the United States, the European Union and ASEAN in March, the growth rate of exports to the United States rose sharply, while the growth rate of exports to the European Union and ASEAN declined slightly, but continued to maintain. High, showing strong resilience, and due to the impact of the epidemic, exports to Hong Kong have experienced a significant decline, causing a large drag on total exports. Looking ahead, the growth rate of China’s exports to the EU and ASEAN has a downward trend, but in the context of repeated epidemics, it has strong resilience, while exports to the United States have not yet shown signs of obvious weakening. In addition, in Hong Kong, the sharp decline in export growth was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in February and March, and the current epidemic in Hong Kong has gradually subsided. It is expected that the growth rate of exports to Hong Kong will rebound in the next two months. In terms of commodities, firstly, the export of production-related capital goods and intermediate products maintained a high growth rate; secondly, the growth rate of overseas real estate-related commodity exports increased; thirdly, the export of residential economy still maintained a good growth rate. Fourth, travel-related exports maintained high growth.

China’s imports in March were -0.1% year-on-year, far below market expectations of 8.2%, and a sharp decrease of 10.5 percentage points from the previous month. From a year-on-year perspective, the characteristics of imports in March are as follows: First, the decline in the year-on-year growth rate of mechanical and electrical products led to a year-on-year decline in imports to the EU. two is,agricultural productsEnergy was affected by the rise in commodity prices caused by the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the relevant import volume decreased.non-ferrous metalsAlthough imports increased slightly, prices rose significantly. Third, the year-on-year growth rate of imports of iron ore and concentrates has dropped sharply, which may be related to the current domestic epidemic.However, the strong base is also an important reason for the sharp drop in the import data in March.contractratio is still rising.

Risk warning: The epidemic has repeatedly exceeded expectations, the fiscal force has exceeded expectations, and the geopolitical situation has exceeded expectations.

(Article Source:Northeast Securities）

Article source: Northeast Securities

Responsible editor: 43

Original title: Comments on import and export data in March: Export resilience continued in March but need to be alert to the impact of the epidemic and logistics in April