- BBC fact-checking team
- (Reality Check)
The number of confirmed cases of the new crown in the UK has been increasing all the way, and the medical service department has called for the re-implementation of epidemic prevention measures before winter enters.
Due to the vaccination, the chance of severe hospitalization for confirmed cases is much less, but the number of confirmed cases is increasing, higher than that in some European countries, and it is still worth worrying about.
If there are more and more confirmed cases, the greater the chance of the new coronavirus breaking through the protection of the vaccine, and the more people who are sick will also put more pressure on the medical service department.
What do statistics tell us?
In recent days, the number of daily diagnoses in the UK has continued to rise, with 52009 cases newly added in a single day on October 21.
Official figures also show that a total of 327,537 cases were diagnosed within 7 days from October 15 to October 21.
The number of confirmed diagnoses in the past three months is comparable to the number of confirmed diagnoses in the three months of last winter. We can compare these two time periods.
From July to October this year, there were more than 3 million confirmed cases in the UK, of which only 79,000 needed to be hospitalized.
Between October last year and January this year, there were more than 2.7 million confirmed cases in the UK, but as many as 185,000 people needed to be admitted to the hospital. At that time, unlike now, there was no available new crown vaccine.
According to the latest data from the Public Health England (Public Health England), people over 18 years of age who have not been vaccinated are at least three times more likely to be hospitalized after diagnosis.
In addition, even though the number of confirmed diagnoses is about the same as last winter, the number of deaths is much lower than it was then.
However, why are the number of confirmed cases of the new crown in the UK high?
Don’t wear a mask?
Compared with European countries such as Germany, France, Spain or Italy, the British have a more relaxed and free attitude towards wearing masks, and more people in the UK do not wear masks.
Compared with the above-mentioned European countries, the UK has the highest number of confirmed cases of new crown, but it cannot be directly concluded that not wearing a mask is the reason behind it.
There are constant studies showing that wearing a mask can prevent the spread of the virus from person to person, but it is difficult to scientifically determine to what extent wearing a mask reduces the outbreak of infection.
This is because there are many other variable factors in the spread of new crown disease, such as the number of contacts, time, and degree of interaction between people. It is impossible to examine the single factor of wearing a mask independently.
According to a survey conducted by Imperial College London, people in Sweden and the Netherlands are more likely to not wear masks than the British, but the number of confirmed cases in these two countries is lower than that in the UK.
Across the UK, only Scotland still recommends wearing masks indoors, and Scots are more likely to wear masks, but the number of people admitted to hospitals in Scotland has suddenly increased in recent weeks.
Restrictions are relaxed and people have more contact with people?
Compared with most other Western European countries, the United Kingdom has lifted various anti-epidemic measures earlier. From the summer on, people from all over the United Kingdom can go to nightclubs and participate in rallies with unlimited numbers, while other countries have not unblocked it so quickly.
A survey conducted by Imperial College London also showed that British people are more likely to take public transport and avoid going out less often than the nearest European neighbors.
The latest survey in the United Kingdom found that the contact between people has not changed much in recent weeks, and the contact between children is the same as when the school just started.
The number of people who go to the office to work in person is gradually increasing, but still very few. Only about half of the employees go to the office to work.
decrease in immunity?
The United Kingdom is considered to be the world leader in administering vaccines. The vaccine has indeed avoided many severely ill patients with new coronary disease. However, the first to administer the vaccine also explains why the number of diagnoses in the UK is now increasing.
A study based on the results of vaccinated patients’ new crown tests found that the protection of the vaccine against infection with the new crown virus began to decline significantly after five to six months of vaccination.
Israel used to be the country with the most vaccinated population in the world at the beginning. After analyzing the data, local scientists found that the failure of vaccine protection was the reason for the sudden increase in infection rate, and the number of confirmed cases began to be flat after the elderly population was vaccinated with booster.
The United Kingdom is now also beginning to add booster doses to the elderly population. In mid-October, 3.7 million people in England received the third booster dose.
However, although the protection against infection is reduced six months after vaccination, the vaccine can still avoid the emergence of severe illness.
Is vaccination slowing down?
The United Kingdom has started to administer the vaccine very early, but the popularity of the vaccine has slowed down in recent months. In countries with a population of more than 1 million, the proportion of people who have received two full doses of the vaccine has fallen outside the top 10.
In the first two weeks of October, the proportion of people over the age of 12 who had received at least one dose of the vaccine in the UK barely increased.
The British government reiterated that “the new crown vaccine has significantly weakened the link between confirmed diagnosis and hospitalization and death, and therefore will continue to be the first line of defense against the new crown disease.”
“We encourage those who are eligible for additional booster doses to administer the third dose as soon as possible to ensure that they gain important enhanced protection before entering winter.”
The United Kingdom has also been inadequate in its child population vaccination. The United Kingdom began to administer one dose of vaccine to children aged 12 to 15 on September 20, but so far, only 15% of children aged 12 to 15 have been vaccinated. one dose.
In contrast, more than half of children of the above-mentioned ages in Israel have received a dose of the vaccine, while France has been vaccinating children over 12 years of age since July, and most European countries have now begun to do so.