In India, the numbers of infections and deaths due to Covid-19 could be much higher than those officially communicated by New Delhi which, to date, speak of just under 27 million cases and over 307 thousand deaths. The New York Times, making use of a team of over 12 experts, has in fact analyzed the effects of the pandemic in the country, along the entire time span, extrapolating data and trends.
The analysis allowed us to imagine four different scenarios, from the most prudent to the most catastrophic, to estimate the impact of the coronavirus in a country of over 1.3 billion inhabitants. The more cautious scenario estimates, as regards infections, numbers 15 times higher than those recorded with 404 million infections. The death rate would be 0.15% which would result in the deaths of around 600,000 people. The scenario considered more plausible, on the other hand, estimates a number of infections equal to 539 million, 20 times greater than the current one. In this case the mortality rate would be 0.30% which would translate into 1.6 million deaths.
Finally, the worst-case scenario records over 700 million infections, an estimate 26 times higher than the current one, and 4.2 million deaths, with a mortality rate of 0.60%. The American newspaper recalled that the underestimation of data relating to the pandemic is a widespread trend around the world. A report by the World Health Organization has in fact recently hypothesized that the death rate of Covid, globally, could be two or three times higher than that reported by official counts. In India the problem worsens for logistical and cultural reasons as well as for the effects of the variant and the latest wave of infections that has hit the country. Overwhelmed hospitals and the many deaths in rural areas, in many cases omitted, are just some of the factors that lead us to believe that the data of the Indian health system does not correspond to reality. Added to these is the shortage of tests and swabs and some studies that report that about four out of five deaths have not been investigated to understand the cause.