[Crossroads]Will the CCP send troops to seize Taiwan in the heat of the Russian-Ukrainian war? | Russia | Taiwan | Ukraine

[NTDTV, Beijing time, February 26, 2022]Hello everyone, I’m Tang Hao, how are you today?

Today’s focus: Russia and Ukraine are fighting fiercely, and the CCP takes advantage of the chaos to invade Taiwan? What are the eight major concerns Xi Jinping has in sending troops to attack Taiwan in an all-round way? To test the determination of the United States to protect Taiwan, does Beijing have other plans?

The war between Russia and Ukraine has officially started. Despite various sanctions imposed by many countries, Russia still launched a fierce offensive, and Ukraine also announced that it has officially severed diplomatic relations with Russia. However, the war between Russia and Ukraine has aroused global attention on the other side of the earth, that is, will the Taiwan Strait also ignite the war? After all, will the CCP take advantage of the Russian-Ukrainian war to distract Western countries and send troops to attack Taiwan? What major concerns does Xi Jinping have to consider? How will the CCP intimidate Taiwan and test the United States? Discuss with you in this episode.

As we all know, Russia has already used force against Ukraine, which has plunged the world into the most tense geopolitical crisis since the Cold War. In particular, will the CCP also take advantage of the opportunity and chaos to send troops to Taiwan? This topic has become a hot spot for Chinese and the international community around the world. Many Taiwanese friends have been asking me what I think of this situation for the past two days, so today we are here to chat with you.

However, because I am still out of town, I do not have the right conditions to make video recordings, so today is still the same, I will share my observations with you first through audio recordings.

First of all, friends who have watched the last episode of the show should remember that I analyzed in the show that the military conflict between Ukraine and Russia should be difficult to avoid, but it will not evolve into a large-scale destructive war. There may be a “small fight” or a few games. In the end, everyone will sit down to negotiate, draw territory, and use diplomatic means to end the game.

The words were just finished, and by coincidence, Russia immediately announced a military operation against Ukraine. It launched an encircling march against Ukraine from the north, east and south at the same time, and also launched air strikes against Ukraine, and Ukraine, not to be outdone, launched a counterattack. , and announced a formal severance of diplomatic relations with Russia.

Negotiating with war

However, less than a day after the war started, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has close ties to Russia, gave a speech. He proposed that Russia and Ukraine should hold talks in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, to resolve the crisis. Lukashenko also made a condition that Ukraine must accept “defeat” and make concessions to Russia’s demands.

As we all know, Belarus is, to put it bluntly, Russia’s agent and foreign spokesperson. Lukashenko’s authoritarian government has only been able to be dictatorial for 28 consecutive years with the backing of Russia. In other words, Belarus now seems to be acting as a third party to mediate the war, but in fact what they say is what Russia wants to say, and the conditions they offer to Ukraine are the conditions Russia wants.

So what does this represent? This means that the war has just started, and Russia has simultaneously released a signal that it wants to end the war through diplomatic negotiations; on the other hand, this war is that Russia will use military force to “force surrender” and “peace war” against Ukraine. use together”, requiring Ukraine to take the initiative to make sovereignty and territorial concessions to achieve Russia’s goals.

From this point of view, the current development of this war just confirms our prediction in the last episode of the show, right? How long will this war last? It is still unknown, but it depends on the exchange of fire between the two sides, and how many specific actions European and American countries will take to support Ukraine in addition to sanctions against Russia. We will continue to observe this together.

Russia and Ukraine exchange fire and Taiwan is in a hurry?

However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine immediately caused the international community to pay attention to the other side of the world, that is, will the CCP also send troops to Taiwan to take advantage of the chaos? This topic has sparked heated discussions on the Internet, and the keyword “Taiwan” has reached the second most popular search on social networking site Twitter.

Coincidentally, former U.S. President Trump also publicly warned that after Russia sent troops to Ukraine, the CCP would attack Taiwan next. The CCP has also dispatched a large number of military aircraft to harass Taiwan’s southwestern airspace in the past two days, which has made the outside world quite worried. Will the air forces on both sides of the strait misfire and detonate military conflicts? Tsai Ing-wen also ordered the military to be on full alert to strengthen monitoring and defense of the enemy.

Seeing this, I believe that many Taiwanese friends and Chinese friends from all over the world will be quite nervous. Will the two sides of the strait follow suit? Well, now I want to say my observation. As I said before, the probability of the CCP’s full-scale invasion of Taiwan at this time is not high, and it can even be said to be quite low. Because the CCP currently has too many internal and external problems to deal with, and the risk of using force against Taiwan is far higher than the chance of winning Taiwan. how to say? Because Beijing has several major concerns:

Concern 1: Intensive struggle in the South China Sea in the battle for the defense of the 20 major regimes

At the end of this year, the CCP will hold the power transfer meeting of the “Twenty National Congress”. Xi Jinping wants to break the convention and be re-elected as the general secretary for the third term. The most intense and hottest year ever.

For Xi Jinping, the most pressing priority is “Anne,” that is, how to suppress the counterattack of anti-Xi factions and ensure that his regime can be re-elected. Therefore, once Beijing uses all-out force against Taiwan at this time, there will be pressure to “win”. Otherwise, if the fight is lost or tied, Xi will not only lose face and authority, but will also cause opposition within the party. The Xi faction will also find the most powerful excuse to force him to step down.

Moreover, a full-scale attack on Taiwan is likely to allow the anti-Xi factions in the military to take advantage of the mobilization of military forces they can control and turn around to launch a military coup and assassination operations against Beijing. Therefore, sending troops to Taiwan at this time, for Xi, will not only make himself passive, but may also send troops and weapons to the anti-Xi faction. For him, it is a life-and-death gamble with risks far higher than profits. Not worth it.

Concern 2: China’s economic pessimism is full of ailments

At the end of last year, when Xi Jinping presided over the Central Economic Work Conference, he revealed that China’s economic situation was very bad. He said that China’s economy was facing three major pressures, including “demand contraction”, “supply shock” and “weakening expectations”. There is the challenge of “more complex, severe and uncertain external environment”.

Moreover, the press release of this meeting also used 25 words for “steady” in one breath, which means that China’s economy is very unstable, so the CCP has to shout “steady” desperately. At that time, we also did an episode of analysis and said that the Chinese economy will face at least seven major challenges this year, so the Chinese economy will be very pessimistic. These challenges include:

Challenge 1: Enterprises are generally laying off staff and reducing wages, and unemployment is on the rise.
Challenge 2: The supply chain is tight, prices are soaring, and the operating costs of enterprises are greatly increased.
Challenge 3: Soaring prices, declining income, many people reduce consumption.
Challenge 4: Many local governments are heavily indebted, have difficulty in paying salaries, and have no money to expand investment.
Challenge 5: The CCP upgrades supervision and promotes common prosperity, which increases the risk of business operations.
Challenge 6: China lacks electricity, labor, chips, and core technologies.
Challenge 7: The CCP’s economic data reports good news but not bad news, and the risk of officials’ misjudgment increases.

To put it simply, China’s economy this year is very pessimistic, and it is full of diseases. Even the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently lowered its economic forecast for China, predicting that China’s economic growth rate this year may only be 4.8%.

Of course, I think this figure is still optimistic. After all, the war in Europe now will definitely have an impact on the global economy, so the economic data of various countries will be more pessimistic. If Beijing were to send troops to invade Taiwan at this time, it would only lead to a complete collapse of China’s economy, skyrocketing prices, unemployment, and people’s hardship. At that time, Xi Jinping’s political defense war would be even hotter and harder to guarantee.

Concern 3: China’s food security is unstable, and the war between Russia and Ukraine is not good for Beijing

Throughout last year, the CCP desperately searched for food all over the world and hoarded it. China’s food reserves not only accounted for more than half of the global inventory, but also caused global food prices to soar across the board. It stands to reason that China has hoarded so much food, it should be enough food.

But the strange thing is that on February 22, the CCP released the “Central No. 1 Document”, which emphasized the need to adhere to “two bottom lines”, including “guaranteeing national food security” and “no large-scale return to poverty”. In other words, the CCP has hoarded so much food, but there are still hidden dangers to food security. This shows that the truth about the CCP’s grain scheduling and storage should be very problematic.

As you all know, Ukraine and Russia are both the world‘s most important grain exporters and China’s main source of grain imports. 30% of China’s corn comes from Ukraine. Now, the war between Russia and Ukraine will not only affect food production, but the military will also consume a large amount of food, which will then cause global food prices to continue to soar, which will also affect the CCP’s food import costs and food security.

Concern 4: The continued spread of the epidemic increases the hidden danger of using troops

Since the end of last year, a new round of epidemics has been reported all over China, including major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong and Wuhan, with new local cases, and the data is still rising; coupled with the outbreak in Hong Kong in recent years The largest epidemic has caused many Hong Kong people to enter mainland China to avoid it, but instead it has further spread the epidemic in China.

Therefore, the spread of the epidemic has also put serious pressure on the Beijing authorities, because the epidemic will not only affect the economy and people’s livelihood, but also if the virus invades the military units, it will easily spread rapidly in the closed environment of the military, causing military strength to suffer. Create. Therefore, this epidemic is also a hidden danger for Beijing to send troops to Taiwan.

Concern 5: Insufficient military readiness to win Taiwan in one go

If the CCP wants to invade Taiwan, the biggest opponent and scruples are the military intervention and assistance of the United States and Japan. However, the CCP’s current military power has no way to compete with the United States, so the United States also assesses that the CCP will not be able to do so in the short term or within two years. Very likely to invade Taiwan.

In particular, the CCP’s current amphibious landing vehicles are not enough to project a large number of troops to Taiwan to fight for the beach at one time. Therefore, some experts even estimate that the CCP may not have the ability to fully attack Taiwan in the next 10 years.

And, there is an interesting corroboration. Jin Canrong, a hawkish scholar of the Chinese Communist Party, has only publicly announced that the Chinese Communist Party will use force against Taiwan in 2027, and it will take a week to take Taiwan. This sentence is very tough. It sounds like a new round of military intimidation by the CCP, but in fact, behind this statement, it is very likely to help the CCP to step down, so that Beijing does not have to deal with Taiwan this year. Send troops to help Beijing delay time.

Why procrastinate? It is because the CCP has not yet had sufficient military preparations, and Xi Jinping’s biggest and most severe challenge this year is actually a civil war within the CCP, so Taiwan must let it go first.

Concern 6: Politicians from many countries warn that the Taiwan Strait should not be an enemy of many countries

As I just said, Trump has issued a warning that the CCP is likely to follow Russia to invade Ukraine and use force against Taiwan. Not only that, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also warned in advance that if Ukraine is in danger, the shock will reverberate in places like East Asia and Taiwan.

The Australian Prime Minister also warned a few days ago that the CCP is observing the situation in Ukraine and considering issues related to the use of force against Taiwan; while Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party also stated that “Today’s Ukraine must not become tomorrow’s Taiwan.”

To put it simply, many countries have publicly warned that the CCP may invade Taiwan while taking advantage of the chaos. This is like a lot of people standing at the door of the bank, shouting that the robbers are going to rob the bank. If the robbers still don’t have a long eye to rob the bank at this time, the result will definitely not be much better.

Concern 7: Pompeo’s visit to Taiwan, the United States and both parties support Taiwan

Former U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will visit Taiwan next week. This time is very important, because Pompeo’s visit will not only make Taiwan attract the attention and attention of the international community again, but also Pompeo is a Republican, so he visited in person Taiwan also shows that both parties in the United States are highly supportive of Taiwan.

If the CCP attacks Taiwan at this time, it will openly struggle with the U.S. government and opposition parties. Then the CCP will not only face countermeasures from the U.S. military, but will also invite the U.S. to impose various sanctions and export controls, which will make China pessimistic enough The economy of China will be even worse, and it will also be very unfavorable for Xi Jinping’s re-election.

Concern 8: There is a fundamental conflict of interest between China and Russia

Although the CCP and Russia seem to have been closely cooperating, they are actually estranged from each other. The two sides are allied on the surface for mutual benefit, but they actually do not trust each other in their bones.

In particular, the CCP’s “One Belt, One Road” expansion plan goes through Central Asia, the Middle East, and directly to Eastern and Western Europe. The CCP hopes to use the “Belt and Road” to lead developing countries in these regions, move closer to the CCP, serve the CCP, Follow the orders of the CCP. However, many of these Central Asian countries and Eastern European countries are Russia’s sphere of influence, including Kazakhstan, Ukraine and so on. So the CCP is vying for territory with Russia, so of course Russia will raise its vigilance.

In particular, the “community with a shared future for mankind” that the Beijing authorities have been advocating is actually the imperialist roadmap for the CCP to dominate the world and dominate the world; while Russia does not want to dominate the world, but it also wants to restore the territory and glory of the past as a great power. It means that there will be conflicts of power and interests between China and Russia.

If the CCP sends troops to the Taiwan Strait at this time, it will help Russia to disperse pressure and increase its leverage, and it will give Russia a better chance to control Ukraine and other European countries. In this way, it does not mean that the CCP has castrated itself to infiltrate and deploy sites in Europe. ? Wouldn’t that reduce the CCP’s influence and control in Europe? Therefore, although the CCP and Russia seem to be brothers, they are separated from each other in appearance, and each has a different vision.

Low probability of cross-strait war does not rule out small-scale friction

Therefore, to sum up what I just said, I think that although Russia has invaded Ukraine, the probability of the CCP taking the opportunity to send troops to Taiwan should not be high, or even very low. However, we would like to stress that it cannot be ruled out that the CCP will take advantage of the chaos to create small-scale military frictions in the Taiwan Strait.

This is because small-scale military frictions will help Beijing instigate national sentiment on the issue of cross-strait reunification and expand internal propaganda, which will help Xi Jinping to “add points” in his re-election; at the same time, small-scale military frictions will further intimidate the people of Taiwan , so that Taiwan feels the pressure of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, coupled with the internal and external cooperation of Taiwan’s pro-Communist parties, it can create more internal chaos in Taiwan.

Moreover, the small-scale military frictions also just happened to be used by Beijing to test whether the United States has the determination to send troops to defend Taiwan. After all, the U.S. withdrawal of troops in Afghanistan is absurd. Now that the war broke out in Ukraine, and European and American countries have not yet sent troops to intervene, these signs will make the CCP judge that the U.S. is “talking but not practicing”, which will prompt the CCP to want to pass small Military friction is used to test the U.S. side to see if the U.S. side will also “release” Taiwan. Therefore, Taiwan must not be taken lightly.

Well, finally, let’s say it again. It is unlikely that the CCP will take advantage of the exchange of fire between Russia and Ukraine to send troops to invade Taiwan in an all-round way. The main reason is that the CCP has eight major concerns:
Concern 1: Intensive struggle in the South China Sea in the battle for the defense of the 20 major regimes
Concern 2: China’s economic pessimism is full of ailments
Concern 3: China’s food security is unstable, and the war between Russia and Ukraine is not good for Beijing
Concern 4: The continued spread of the epidemic increases the hidden danger of using troops
Concern 5: Insufficient military readiness to win Taiwan in one go
Concern 6: Politicians from many countries warn that the Taiwan Strait should not be an enemy of many countries
Concern 7: Pompeo’s visit to Taiwan, the United States and both parties support Taiwan
Concern 8: There is a fundamental conflict of interest between China and Russia

Okay, that’s all for today, thank you for watching, we’ll see you next time.

—
No chaos in war

Smoke and smoke in the sky
Good and evil battle Jiuxiaoduan
Red bandits hide their tricks
Don’t worry about looking at the eyes

Tang Hao

(Editor in charge: Li Hong)

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