[Epoch Times, October 17, 2022](Reported by Epoch Times reporters Ning Haizhong and Luo Ya) Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping said in his speech to the 20th National Congress yesterday (16th) that he would solve the Taiwan issue and would “never promise to give up the use of Force” was again written into the report, but the report also referred to “do our best to strive for peaceful reunification”. In addition, the report also emphasizes the CCP’s own “national security” issues. Some experts have different interpretations of the statement.
What is the calculation of the CCP not to give up force after 20 years?
According to the transcript of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China officially released by Xi Jinping, there are many Taiwan-related issues, including “anti-secession and anti-interference”, “solving the Taiwan issue is the responsibility of the Chinese people”, and “complete reunification must be achieved”, etc. And stressed that “do our best to strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification, but never promise to give up the use of force”.
This is the first time in 20 years that the phrase “never promise to give up the use of force” has been written into the report of the Party Congress again. The reports of the 15th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1997 and the 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2002 both stated that “we will never promise to renounce the use of force”, but several subsequent Party congresses did not mention the use of “force”.
In a report published by Ming Pao on October 17, Yang Kaihuang, director of the Cross-Strait Research Center of Ming Chuan University in Taiwan, was quoted as saying that Xi’s “never promise to renounce the use of force and reserve all necessary measures” was discussed in the first and second half of the statement. Used by Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin, but combined use is rare. He believes that the first half is actually aimed at the West, which can be seen from the military exercise in August; the second half points to the so-called “Taiwan independence”, or does not rule out the use of political, national security or even legal means to exert pressure at that time.
Su Ziyun, director of the Institute of National Defense Strategy and Resources of the National Defense Academy of Taiwan, told The Epoch Times on October 17 that Xi Jinping’s remarks at the opening ceremony of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China are, first, strategic flexibility, and second, tactical toughness.
Su Ziyun said that Xi reiterated that he would not give up force for the domestic audience; he emphasized that the priority of peaceful reunification was for the United States, because he knew that the United States and other democratic countries all value the security and stability of the Taiwan Strait. Moreover, the consensus reached in the “Sino-US Shanghai Communiqué” was that the issues on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be resolved by peaceful means, so Xi Jinping took into account the needs of both external and internal propaganda.
“The most important thing is that the tough part of tactics is the so-called new normal now (the CCP), military planes and warships have been harassing Taiwan, creating a paramilitary pressure, so under this background, he has already decided for his next term. Adjusted. It may be based on military pressure, but it will not start a war.” Su Ziyun said.
Does Xi have a “unified” timetable?
Although the outside world has no way of knowing when Xi will initiate the so-called reunification, Yang Kaihuang, director of the Center for Cross-Strait Research at Ming Chuan University in Taiwan, told Ming Pao that “it should happen within his next term of office.” It has been equivalent to “he forced himself” to implement it as soon as possible. What Xi has to do now is to improve all the preparations for war, and “the time will come when the time is right.”
Zhao Chunshan, honorary professor of the Mainland China Institute of Tamkang University, told Radio Free Asia on the 16th that the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China did not have much new ideas on the Taiwan issue, and all the words of the claims were found in the “third historical resolution”. “, the “Taiwan Question and China’s Unification in the New Era” white paper, the communiqué of the Seventh Plenary Session of the Central Committee and other documents.
He believes that in the future, the CCP will still have “soft and hard hands” against Taiwan. However, he believes that “unification” has a sense of urgency but no timetable for the CCP. “He only mentioned the overall strategy for Taiwan, and he did not specifically propose a timetable for the reunification.”
Su Ziyun said that in the next five years, if the CCP regards economic issues as higher than the so-called Taiwan issue, they will concentrate on dealing with economic challenges. If it is not handled well, it may use the issue of Taiwan to divert the internal focus. But in the next five years, the CCP will not be able to take Taiwan, and the possibility of failure is very high.
He said that Xi Jinping’s re-election should be a sure thing, but only after the positioning of high-level personnel can we further analyze whether the Taiwan Strait will move towards peace or armed conflict in the next five years. If the CCP’s prime minister is the type that focuses on economics, he probably knows that he will focus on economics; if it is other, he may have other ideas. However, the CCP itself now faces great internal challenges.
“The probability of a real war (Taiwan Strait) in the next five years is very low. Only when it (the CCP) transfers internal pressure from the outside can it be possible to start a war. So in any case, Taiwan is preparing for war, in order to maintain peace and prepare for war. Stop the war.” Su Ziyun said.
In addition, Su Ziyun said that once a war begins in the Taiwan Strait, the US intervention is basically clear, “I define it as constructive clarity, which is to oppose the use of force to change the status quo. The statement of a series of US policymakers is equivalent to the fact that the US military will intervene in Taiwan. has been determined.
He also listed other countries, such as Japan, based on its recognition of Taiwan and its own national security interests, it has been determined to assist the US military in defending Taiwan; Australia has a security treaty with the United States, and historically has sent troops to assist the United States in combat; the new British During her tenure as foreign minister, Prime Minister Trus publicly called on NATO to help defend Taiwan; Italy’s new female prime minister pointed out for the first time the threat of the CCP’s “Belt and Road” initiative and talked about the importance of Taiwan Strait security.
Why does Xi Jinping mention so much “security”?
In his report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Xi Jinping emphasized the maintenance of the CCP’s national security, including regime security, institutional security, ideological security, and the security of important industries and industrial chains.
Regarding Xi’s emphasis on “national security”, Reuters quoted Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, as saying that Xi Jinping’s main concern is obviously security. Because China (Communist) faces many dangers, the country seems to be in a state of war. Xi hopes that with this discourse, people will rally around him.
Ja Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said, “The outside world is unstable and dangerous as Xi Jinping said, and he wants to use stability to describe China and his leadership.” Much more than five years ago.”
Su Ziyun said that whatever slogan the CCP shouts, there is a problem there. Xi Jinping mentioned so many security concepts, saying that he is also aware that the current system of the CCP is being challenged.
He said that before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the United States quickly cut off the source of the Chinese Communist Party’s access to advanced technology. Xi should have noticed that the democratic countries are increasingly encircling the Chinese Communist Party. He knows that the next five-year term will face more challenges.
Expert: Xi says Xi’s Taiwan follows the road of undivided sovereignty and democracy
In the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it was also mentioned that the policy of “peaceful reunification and one country, two systems” is the best way to realize cross-strait reunification.
The Taiwan Presidential Palace said yesterday (October 16). Taiwan’s mainstream public opinion firmly rejects “one country, two systems”. The Mainland Affairs Council emphasized that “the people of Taiwan will never accept the ‘1992 Consensus’ set by the CCP and the ‘one country, two systems’ and other finalities, and only the 23 million people in Taiwan have the right to decide the future.”
According to the results of a regular poll released by the Mainland Affairs Council on August 18, more than 80% oppose the “one China principle” called by the mainland’s white paper, and even more oppose the “one country, two systems” that treats Taiwan as a local government and a special zone (84.7%). The vast majority of the people advocated “maintaining the status quo in a broad sense” (86.1%).
Su Ziyun said that Xi Jinping said what he said at the 20th National Congress, but Taiwan will follow its own path and insist that sovereignty is inseparable from democracy.
“The sovereignty of Hong Kong belongs to China, but the democratic system under the two systems basically does not exist. Therefore, Taiwanese people will not have illusions about the CCP’s statement. Taiwan prioritizes strengthening its own military strength, and only when its military strength is sufficient can it be intimidated. prevent war.”
He believes that Taiwan has entered into a civil society, and the CCP is still talking about reunification and independence, but in Taiwan it is the competition between democracy and authoritarianism.
“In the context of giving priority to democracy, ensuring the sovereignty of the Republic of China and a democratic way of life, and using force to strengthen the defense force, the four-word description is armed democracy, which is beneficial to the survival of Taiwan, to the peace of regional security, and to China. The people of the mainland also benefit, because the democratic system of a Chinese society is here, and it can be compared with the CCP.”
Su Ziyun said that the protest slogans that appeared on the Sitong Bridge in Beijing before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China were equivalent to proclaiming the public opinion in the mainland that communism was not feasible, and indirectly praising Taiwan’s democratic system. Therefore, the existence of Taiwan is to give hope to the people of mainland China.
Responsible editor: Fang Ming#