Home » East-West Questions | Zhu Yongbiao: After the United States withdraws, what is the prospect of Afghanistan’s political situation? _China News Service

East-West Questions | Zhu Yongbiao: After the United States withdraws, what is the prospect of Afghanistan’s political situation? _China News Service

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Original title: Questions about things | Zhu Yongbiao: After the United States withdraws, what is the prospect of Afghanistan’s political situation?

China News Service, Lanzhou, August 25th, title:After the United States withdraws, what is the prospect of Afghanistan’s political situation? ——Interview with Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Afghanistan Research Center of Lanzhou University

In just 10 days, the situation in Afghanistan, known as the “crossroads of Asia and Europe,” changed dramatically, and the Taliban regained power after 20 years. Wars, refugees, foreign troops, terrorist organizations, etc. shrouded the sky over Afghanistan like a dark cloud, with internal and external troubles intertwined.

Historically, what caused the situation in Afghanistan today? How did the Taliban rise in Afghanistan? What is the future prospect of Afghanistan’s political situation? Zhu Yongbiao, director of the Afghanistan Research Center of Lanzhou University, recently accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency “Question of East and West” for an in-depth interpretation.

Reporter from China News Service: What adjustment and layout of Afghanistan policy are hidden behind the accelerated withdrawal of the United States? Will it cause a political crisis in the United States?

Zhu Yongbiao: First of all, the accelerated withdrawal of the United States has a lot to do with its overall international strategic adjustments. From public documents such as the US “National Security Strategy Report”, it can be seen that the United States believes that Afghanistan is no longer important to national security, and that China and Russia have become its own. main competitor. This is also an important reason why the administration from Obama to Trump to the Biden administration has repeatedly wanted to withdraw troops from Afghanistan.

The second reason is that the United States feels “war fatigue”. In the war that has lasted for nearly 20 years, the United States has become bored with this war no matter whether it is financial investment, personal injury, or public opinion attention at home and abroad.

On August 16, local time, the crowd waiting for the evacuation gathered at the Afghan airport.

In fact, there are still many different opinions in the United States on the Afghan issue, and there has never been a particularly unified basis for public opinion. Whether it is from the White House to the two houses of Congress, the military, the intelligence community, and even think tank scholars, they have all been on this issue. There are disagreements and even tears. Some people advocate that the U.S. get away quickly, but others believe that this may harm U.S. interests.

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The U.S. withdrawal has greatly affected its international strategic prestige and the trust and confidence of its allies in the United States. Although many people now say that Afghanistan is not an ally of the United States, according to US laws and public statements, Afghanistan is indeed its ally. Now that the United States has basically handed over its allies, the trust of other “teammates” in the United States will obviously be compromised in the future.

The Taliban are so powerful that there are hidden secrets behind them

China News Agency reporter: Behind the Taliban’s smashing offensive, is it because of its own strength? Or is there another secret?

Zhu Yongbiao: From the very beginning, the United States’ cognition of Afghanistan’s history and national conditions, both the intelligence community and think tank scholars, wears colored glasses, and has not used an objective, true, and impartial attitude to perceive Afghanistan. This has led the United States to deal with many things entirely in American ways when dealing with Afghanistan.

There are actually many reasons for the Taliban’s failure. First, the U.S. hastily withdraws its troops, including the rapid withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Bagram Air Force Base before, and even the secret escape, which has greatly frustrated the morale of the Afghan government forces and made them think they are no longer affected. The United States trusts them, and this has dealt a huge blow to them.

On August 16, local time, the crowd waiting for the evacuation gathered at the Afghan airport.

On the other hand, after 2018, the United States has been in peace talks with the Taliban for a long time and forced the Afghan government to speed up the strategy of domestic peace and reconciliation. There are also many loopholes in specific measures, or it is eager to achieve success or even unscrupulous. For example, it has repeatedly pressured the Afghan government to ask the Taliban to make various concessions. At the same time, during the Trump era, the Afghan government was completely left aside during the negotiations between the United States and the Taliban and basically did not participate.

The Taliban also asked for direct talks with the United States, not with the Afghan government supported by the United States. The United States was basically led by the Taliban, and even asked the Afghan government and the Taliban to share power and establish a coalition government with the Taliban as the main body, without considering the reasonable demands of the Afghan government. In the process, the Afghan government forces also lost their combat goals and fighting spirit.

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In addition, for a long time, the Afghan government forces have been fighting with the “accompaniment” of the US or NATO troops. Now that the US and NATO troops have withdrawn, the Afghan government forces have lost their “main backbone”, which eventually led to a debacle across the board.

On August 16, local time, in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban patrolled the streets

Taliban re-rule faces multiple challenges

China News Agency reporter: In terms of stabilizing the domestic situation and diplomacy in Afghanistan, what challenges will the re-ruling Taliban face? What impact will this have on the surrounding political and ecological security?

Zhu Yongbiao: Compared to 20 years ago, the Taliban who have returned to power seem to be much more moderate. At present, the main reason is that the internal structure of the Taliban is very complicated. Some of them do have the idea of ​​mild change, but the other group may be more of a strategic expedient. This may be an objective existence of intertwining. . But at the same time, there is another question, that is, how long and how long the moderate policy of the Taliban can last.

The difficulties faced by the Taliban in the future are only a lot more than the collapse of the Afghan government. There are old problems such as conflicts between the central and local governments, developing the national economy, and safeguarding people’s livelihood. There are also new problems such as the Taliban’s promise to protect women’s rights and cut off ties with terrorist organizations such as “bases”. Whether these commitments can be fulfilled in exchange for international recognition and international assistance is a great challenge.

The international community also has another concern about the Taliban: Will they reinterpret or amend the pledge? For example, the Taliban promised to allow women to enjoy the right to education and work under the framework of Islamic teachings, but there is still a lot of room to explain how the “doctrine” should be understood here.

In addition, the Taliban central government may have such a policy, but under the influence of the strong public opinion base of the middle and lower levels, will it return to the extreme ideology of the past? At present, it is not good to pack tickets.

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In fact, the Taliban are made up of many tribes. When the original government supported by the United States was in power, they had a unified goal. When this goal falls, the future may be more complicated. That is to say, it is actually relatively easy to reunify when “strike the country”, but when the country needs to govern the country, the decentralization of power and other issues have become a major challenge for the Taliban.

Compared with before 2001, Afghanistan has undergone great changes. At that time, the Taliban’s management was relatively pure and single, and most of them were relatively backward rural populations. But now the urban population has expanded, the number of educated groups has increased rapidly, and contact with the outside world has become smoother. Great changes have taken place in the governance environment and the past. This is also an important challenge for the Taliban.

In addition to internal worries, there are external worries. The Taliban also faces the possibility of potential sanctions, blockades, and even military strikes from Western countries headed by the United States. There is also how to deal with the relationship with some foreign extremist terrorist forces such as the “Al Qaeda” organization. Whether it was a cooperative or competitive relationship before, if it is to win the recognition of the international community, it is still “cannot have both.” (over)

About the Author:

Zhu Yongbiao, a native of Linying, Henan, is a professor and doctoral supervisor at the School of Politics and International Relations of Lanzhou University. He is currently the executive director of the Belt and Road Research Center of Lanzhou University and the director of the National and Regional Research Center of the Ministry of Education-the Afghanistan Research Center of Lanzhou University. From 2008 to 2018, he served as assistant to the director of the Institute of Central Asia of Lanzhou University. He is also a member of the China Council of BRICS Think Tank Cooperation, a senior researcher of the Hainan China Golden Eagle Peace and Development Foundation, and a researcher of the Chahar Society.

Photo courtesy of Zhu Yongbiao Return to Sohu to see more

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