It is head to head between the Macronians and the left alliance. Nupes, the group that formed around Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, who finished third in the first round of the presidential elections, would have won – according to the third Ifop-Fiducial projections of 20 – 25.9% of the votes, the same Ensemble level! Third was the Rassemblement Nationale of Marine Le Pen, with 19%, fourth the Républicains, neo-Gaullists, with 11.4%.
The other projections are not very different: Ipsos-Sopra Steria gives Ensemble! and Nupes 25.2%, while Rn would have obtained 18.9%. Elabe, on the other hand, gives the left 26.2% and the Macronians 25.8%. Rn third with 19.1%, Républicaines fourth with 11.1%.
The first actual results, relating to 75% of the ballots scrutinized, show Nupes at 22.89%, Ensemble at 24.80%, Rn at 21.20%, and Républicains at 10.74%. These figures take into account the small towns very much, while the big cities are still lacking: among others, all the votes of Paris, Marseille, Lyon are missing.
In terms of seats, Ifop projections indicate that Macronians could get between 275 and 310 seats in the second round, while the left could gain between 180 and 210. The Républicains would stop between 40 and 60 deputies, the Rassemblement national between 5 and 25. Elabe screenings, on the other hand, credit Ensemble! between 260 and 300 seats, and in Nupes between 170 and 220 deputies. The neo-Gaullists would have between 43 and 63 seats, with Rn between 15 and 30 seats. The absolute majority is equal to 289 seats.
President Macron allegedly invoked “humility” to his supporters. Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, who is leading in her constituency of Calvados, appealed to those who did not vote in the first round. Abstention is estimated at 51.5%, a record level although not far from 51.3% in the first round of the 2017 legislative elections. “We are the only political force that can hold the majority,” she said. “Faced with the world situation, and the war on the doorstep of Europe, we cannot take the risk of instability and approximation”, referring to the “unprecedented confusion” between the radical forces. “National sovereignty – she concluded – is not a break with Europe, a fascination with authoritarian regimes and alignment with Russia, but a strong nation at the center of a more independent Europe.