Few certainties and many question marks after yesterday’s parliamentary elections in Bulgaria. As expected, the conservative Gerb party of outgoing premier Boyko Borissov, according to the exit polls released at the closing of the polls, has collected the highest number of votes, 25%, but is weakened compared to the 2017 elections, losing almost 8%. The latter effect, undoubtedly linked to the protests in the street which lasted for several months in 2020 and in which Borissov, together with the Attorney General Ivan Gheshev, was openly accused of favoring the interests of the oligarchs and the mafia and not those of the citizens his way of governing, with appointments, with bribes and with his complicity.
In the new parliament, which came out very fragmented with the presence of seven different political groups, it will certainly be difficult, if not impossible, for Borissov to form a majority and a solid governing coalition. The protest vote against Gerb led to the great success of the newly formed populist party ‘There is a people like this’ by the television showman Slavi Trifonov, which, according to the data available so far, ranks as the second political force with 17.1% of consents. The punitive vote against the government has also spread to several other small parties that have not, however, exceeded the threshold of 4% to enter parliament. And the socialist party BSP suffered a real blow on its part, collecting just 16.7% of the votes, a result that represents an all-time low for the socialists.
Ultimately, the President of Bulgaria, Rumen Radev, a great opponent of Prime Minister Borissov’s political line, who had sided with anti-government demonstrators in recent months, emerged strengthened from the vote. It will be very difficult to form a new coalition government in Sofia without a great willingness to compromise on the part of the political forces. A broad coalition on the German model and the government of Angela Merkel is to be excluded. Several analysts predict persistent political instability that could lead to new elections within a year, a year and a half.