Home » Europe to the test of gas: drought and hydroelectric plants are the weakest links in Italy and France

Europe to the test of gas: drought and hydroelectric plants are the weakest links in Italy and France

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Europe to the test of gas: drought and hydroelectric plants are the weakest links in Italy and France

Bruxelles. Europe to the test of gas, and Italy even more. The European Commission is starting to do the calculations, and fears that the twelve-star reserves may be empty next winter, and for this reason it is calling for an automatic and immediate extension of the plan for quotas and reductions in consumption. A plan that could work, with all the conditionalities of the case. The drought that is affecting some regions of Europe, including the Italian ones, sets off the alarm bells especially in France and Italy. French nuclear power plants, like Italian hydroelectric ones, are affected by water stress and this could lead to an increase in gas consumption against a decrease in alternative production capacity.

In the report to the Member States on the results produced by the political agreement of early July for a voluntary 15% reduction in gas demand, as a response to weaken the Russian war machine and weaken the offensive in Ukraine, it is said in black and white that the strategy is working. «Thanks to voluntary contributions, gas demand across the EU decreased by more than 19.2% between August and January 2023, exceeding the 15% target and saving Europe around 42 billion cubic meters of gas » compared to 32.5 billion cubic meters forecast. The strategy essentially works and for the Community executive it would be appropriate to repeat it.

On with the strategy for another year

Under the circumstances, the Commission comes to the conclusion that continuing with the 15% reduction in consumption starting from 1 April and until 31 March 2024 is the best way forward “to achieve the 90% gas depot filling rate”. % by 1 November» and in this way «ensuring the absence of problems for the security of gas supply for the whole of next winter».

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The proposal will be brought to the attention of energy ministers at their meeting scheduled in Brussels on 28 March. It will be in that forum that it will be possible to draw conclusions and understand up to what point the EU will be able to continue as it has done so far.

Crazy climate, risk for storage and prices

Alongside the good news, however, there is the less happy one. In a paragraph of another document addressed to the twenty-seven EU countries, the communication for the extension of the voluntary reduction agreement in consumption, the Commission notes «a development of drought in some areas, particularly in the northern region of the country, due to low rainfall and snowfall during the winter of 2022/23″. Result: “water levels in Italy are at 2022 levels, which indicates an equally low hydroelectric production”. This affects the country’s ability to make up for the source of which Russia is rich. If the situation persists, “this could affect the filling of the underground storage facilities needed for the winter of 2023-2024”. Italy therefore runs the risk of remaining in the cold. Also because, if in the course of 2022, even if only a little, Gazprom was bought, this cannot be the case for the current year. “In contrast to the previous filling season, the 2023 storage filling cannot rely on the 60 billion cubic meters of gas from the Russian pipeline that was still imported into the EU in 2022.”

Weather and climatic phenomena therefore remain one of the risk factors, even for those who, like France, need water to cool their nuclear reactors. Here too, as for Italy, a passage is dedicated to underline the reduced production capacity. “Uncertainties also remain about river levels and temperatures, which affect the generation capacity of river-cooled nuclear power plants.” Therefore, any predictions of increased availability of nuclear power capacity should be viewed with caution.

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But there’s more. If France and Italy fail to guarantee the production of their energy from atoms and water, this would have repercussions on the energy markets, influencing gas price levels and the volatility of these prices. The specter of a new high bill therefore hovers in the background.

Italy, so far great reduction effort

The political agreement on a voluntary reduction in consumption and therefore in the demand for gas provides for a general threshold of 15% but which takes into account the different situations in the country. In the case of Italy, the threshold is set at 7%, but according to data released by the European Commission, between August 2022 and January 2023 Italy did much more, cutting by 18.6%, even more than the general objective .

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