(Essential questions) Li Shaoxian: Does the reappearance of the “Saigon Moment” in the United States usher in new opportunities in Afghanistan?
China News Service, Yinchuan, August 21st. Title: Li Shaoxian: Will the reappearance of the “Saigon Moment” in the United States usher in new opportunities for Afghanistan?
China News Agency reporter Li Peishan
Li Shaoxian.Photo courtesy of me
On August 15th local time in Afghanistan, the Taliban entered Kabul and then occupied the Afghan Presidential Palace. After the rapid occupation of the capital Kabul, the Taliban has begun to seize the time to form a government and announced on the 19th that the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” will be established, which will rule the country in accordance with Islamic law.
The war in Afghanistan launched by the United States after the “September 11” terrorist attacks has lasted for 20 years. As the longest war in the history of the United States, why did the Afghan government forces be quickly defeated by the Taliban in a short period of time? What impact will the Taliban have on the world after they regain power? Li Shaoxian, Dean of the Arab College of Ningxia University and Dean of the Chinese Academy of Arab Countries, recently accepted an exclusive interview with China News Agency on “East and West Questions” to make an in-depth analysis of relevant issues.
On August 16, local time, at Kabul International Airport in Afghanistan, satellite photos showed a dense crowd on the airport apron. The Afghan Taliban entered the capital Kabul on the same day and declared that “the war is over.” Diplomats from the United States and other Western countries, as well as a large number of Afghan people, flocked to Kabul Airport to prepare for evacuation, causing chaos at the airport.
The summary of the interview record is as follows:
China News Agency reporter: After more than 20 years, the international situation has undergone great changes. Especially since this year, it only took less than half a year for the Afghan war to be reversed. Why did the Afghan government completely collapse in a short time?
Li Shaoxian:The speed at which the Taliban in Afghanistan has gained power has exceeded expectations, and it can be said that it has surprised the world. Including from the response of the US Central Intelligence Agency, they predicted the downfall of the Afghan government, but they did not expect it to be so rapid.
From the time when the Taliban took the first provincial capital city on August 6 to when they entered Kabul to take over power on the 15th, it took only 10 days for the situation to change drastically. This is also an unprecedented challenge for the Taliban. The top priority of the Taliban can be summarized in eight words: to consolidate the regime and win recognition.
The Taliban seem to be constantly learning lessons from history. When the Taliban entered Kabul, they continued to release signals to stabilize the people, stabilize the situation, and consolidate the regime, and introduced a series of policies. Including the pardon of all civil servants during the period of the Afghan government, so that they can return to work and go to work normally. At the same time, the Taliban also called on women representatives to “join the government.”
At the Taliban’s first press conference after the Taliban’s entry into the Afghan capital of Kabul on the 15th held by Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid, he also made it clear that he would not harm foreign personnel in Afghanistan and would also protect foreign institutions and non-governmental organizations in Afghanistan. Government organizations, etc. These are all friendly signals released by the Taliban to stabilize the regime.
Judging from the situation in Afghanistan for more than 20 years, the assistance of the international community has become the main source of livelihood development in Afghanistan. For the Taliban, forming a government that wins external recognition and internal public trust is a top priority.
In the past two months or so, the Taliban diplomatic missions have gone to Iran, Russia and other countries to carry out diplomatic activities. They have also continued to conduct multilateral talks in Doha, the capital of Qatar. The core is to release goodwill and establish a moderate image of the Taliban regime. This move has also played a role. Positive effect.
At the same time, the domestic situation in Afghanistan is also very beneficial to the Taliban. The government forces have basically no resistance, and there are no other large resistance forces.
On August 16, local time, the Afghan Taliban patrolled the streets in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan.
China News Service: With the entry of Taliban troops into Kabul, has the US’s twenty-year “imperial management” in Afghanistan come to an end?
Li Shaoxian:The US helicopter hoisted up in Kabul in embarrassment, repeating the “Saigon Moment” of 1975. The two almost identical photos allowed the world to witness the U.S. retreat again, marking the complete failure of the U.S. war in Afghanistan for more than 20 years.
As far as the United States is concerned, the war in Afghanistan has severely damaged the country’s image and its international reputation has also been hit hard. In the words of U.S. President Biden, the U.S. government has spent more than two trillion U.S. dollars in Afghanistan for more than 20 years, mainly for the formation of the Afghan government army. At a critical moment, Afghan President Ghani chose to withdraw.
More than a month ago, the United States just withdrew more than 2,000 US troops, and then sent back more than 6,000 US troops. The troops sent this time were actually for the emergency evacuation of overseas Chinese. These amazing moves have greatly reduced the United States‘ international reputation.
It can be seen that since May this year, NATO allies have launched a “retreat competition” in Afghanistan. In those days, because of the so-called common interests, it entered Afghanistan with the United States. Now it has become a “flight of each other in a catastrophe.”
In 2001, the U.S. army arrived in Afghanistan; in 2003, the U.S. army arrived in Iraq; in 2011, the U.S. army arrived in Libya; in 2014, the U.S. army arrived in Syria. Looking at the status quo of these four countries, you can sum it up in one sentence: wherever the US military goes, it will bring disasters wherever they go, and they will bring disasters to the people wherever they go.
The US government is still vigorously defending. On August 16th, local time in the United States, Biden defended himself in a national television speech and also told the truth. Biden said that the US military is not in Afghanistan to build this country.
On August 16, local time, the Afghan Taliban patrolled the streets in Kabul, the capital of Afghanistan.
China News Agency reporter: It only took less than half a year for the Afghan war to be reversed. Why did the Afghan government completely collapse in a short time?
Li Shaoxian:Generally speaking, it can be summarized into three aspects.
One is the abandonment of the Afghan government by the United States, which is the fundamental reason. The downfall of the Afghan government was accompanied by the withdrawal of American troops. Because the Taliban insisted that the Afghan government is a puppet of the United States and refused to negotiate with the Afghan government, the U.S., eager to withdraw its troops, unilaterally reached an agreement with the Taliban. Therefore, the day the U.S. withdraws becomes the time when the Taliban attacked the Afghan government forces.
The second is the internal reasons of the Afghan government and the country. In fact, the Afghan government is completely obedient to the United States. President Ghani is a dual citizen of the United States and Afghanistan. Many people believe that Ghani is a puppet of the US government.
At the same time, of the 38 million population of Afghanistan, Pashtuns account for 40%, Tajiks account for 25%, and more than 20 ethnic groups including Hazara, Uzbek, and Turkmen. As the basic identity unit of Afghan society, tribes have existed for a long time. The concept and actions of tribes are projected to public power to form tribal politics. The contradictions between the tribes reflect the contradictions between the central and local governments.
In recent years, corruption has also made the Afghan government as vulnerable as tofu.
The third is the changes in the Taliban. Perhaps the world‘s public’s impression of the Taliban is still 20 years ago, and the Taliban who appeared at the press conference allowed everyone to see its changes. On behalf of the Taliban, Mujahid assured the international community, including the United States, that he would not use Afghanistan’s territory to attack any country. It can be seen that the Taliban are already doing their best to win trust with promises. But if it is to win more trust, the government formed by the Taliban needs to get rid of extreme Islamism and become a more open and tolerant government.
On August 17, 2021 local time, Kabul, Afghanistan, after the Afghan Taliban entered Kabul, people were walking on the streets.Image source: Surging Images
China News Service: After the Taliban enter Kabul, what direction will the future political situation develop? What changes will the West have regarding the situation in Afghanistan in the future?
Li Shaoxian:It can be judged that the government established by the Taliban is no longer a transitional government or a Taliban government.
On August 19, local time, Mujahid issued a statement on social networking sites and announced the establishment of the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.” This also confirms our judgment that the future national system of Afghanistan under the leadership of the Taliban government will be based on Islam and Sharia law.
According to the current situation, the government to be formed by the Afghan Taliban may include well-known Afghan personalities such as former Afghan President Karzai and former Afghan Prime Minister Hikmatyar. It may also accept women representatives to reflect its inclusiveness as much as possible. .
Although no country has yet to recognize the Taliban, Western countries have set out prerequisites and negotiation requirements for recognizing its legitimacy, sending a favorable signal.
Afghanistan used to be a gathering place for terrorist and extremist forces in the world. In order to dispel public doubts, the Taliban have always promised that they will not let Afghanistan fall back to where it once was. It will take time to test whether the Taliban’s promises work.
When Western countries evacuated their personnel safely and returned to their country, they might use another face to talk to the Taliban. In future negotiations with the Taliban, Western countries headed by the United States will still exert pressure and even impose sanctions. In the words of the Americans, continue to implement their policies and protect their interests.
China News Agency reporter: What impact will the new situation in Afghanistan have on neighboring countries?
Li Shaoxian:The return of the Taliban to power presents both opportunities and challenges for neighboring countries.
Since the U.S. military withdrew from Afghanistan and the Taliban attacked the Afghan government forces, neighboring countries have sent forces to the border. Countries including Russia and Uzbekistan have also begun military exercises.
In the past few decades, the war in Afghanistan has produced 6 to 7 million refugees, which has brought a huge burden to countries such as Iran and Pakistan. While worrying about the influx of more refugees, many people worry that Afghanistan will once again become a gathering place for religious extremist forces and international terrorist forces. Historically, the Taliban were closely related to terrorist organizations such as the “Al Qaeda” and the “Eastern Iraqi Movement”. If the Taliban were in power and continued to intensify terrorist activities, it would have a great impact on neighboring countries including China. At the same time, the investment projects of various countries in Afghanistan will also be greatly affected.
At the same time, the regime that the Taliban will establish is an “Islamic government.” Fergana, located at the border of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, is a “fertile ground” for religious extremism. Will the Taliban’s victory affect religious extremism? The stimulus generated by the forces, which in turn leads to more problems, should not be taken lightly by neighboring countries.
If the Taliban quickly stabilize their regime and govern moderately, opportunities also exist.
Afghanistan is close to Iran and Pakistan and is a country along the “Belt and Road”. China has always actively supported the process of peace, reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan. At the same time, it has never intervened in the internal disputes in Afghanistan, did not interfere in the internal affairs of Afghanistan, and has not sent a single soldier into Afghanistan, which has won the appreciation of various political forces in Afghanistan. In the future, Afghanistan is expected to use the “One Belt, One Road” initiative to develop the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and achieve good-neighborly friendship and economic development on the basis of ensuring national security.
China News Agency reporter: The current situation in Afghanistan once again proves that mechanically applying foreign models to countries with completely different history, culture and national conditions will lead to inadequacy and ultimately difficulty in gaining a foothold. Will this also affect the orientation of the government that the Taliban needs to establish?
Li Shaoxian:Afghanistan has been said to be an “imperial cemetery” since ancient times. In the past two centuries, the once British Empire was defeated by Afghanistan twice. More than 40 years ago, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan and finally fled in embarrassment. Two years after its withdrawal, it declared its disintegration. Today, the end of the United States is equally embarrassing.
The same history once again confirms that any system naturally evolves and grows in the soil of its own country, so that it can be long-lasting. Any attempt to impose on other countries with any external force is untenable.
It can be seen that the main expectations of the Afghan people are a clean government, social stability, and an orderly life. The establishment of the new Afghan regime requires Afghan national characteristics. This requires the new ruler to embrace the long-formed tribal society on the basis of Islam, and try his best to embark on an Afghan path that is in line with Afghanistan’s own development. (End)
Li Shaoxian, a native of Taiyuan, Shanxi, is a well-known Chinese expert on Middle East issues, researcher, doctoral tutor, and winner of the National May 1st Labor Medal. He enjoys a special allowance from the State Council. Former vice-president of China Institute of Modern International Relations. Since 2014, he has served as the dean of the Arab College of Ningxia University and the dean of the Chinese Academy of Arab States. He is currently the vice president of the Chinese Middle East Society, a director of the Chinese People’s Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, a distinguished professor of the National School of Administration, and a member of the National and Regional Research Expert Committee of the Ministry of Education.
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