Home » Experts analyze the reasons for the defeat of the Russian army after the Russian-Ukrainian war began for more than four weeks | Russia | Ukraine | Putin

Experts analyze the reasons for the defeat of the Russian army after the Russian-Ukrainian war began for more than four weeks | Russia | Ukraine | Putin

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Experts analyze the reasons for the defeat of the Russian army after the Russian-Ukrainian war began for more than four weeks | Russia | Ukraine | Putin

[The Epoch Times, March 26, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Zhong Yuan reported in Taipei) The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for more than four weeks. For Russia, which was originally the second military power in the world, why did it encounter the brave resistance of the small country Ukraine and was repeatedly defeated? Military experts, etc. In-depth analysis of the reasons.

Military expert, 2021 National Defense General Review Advisory Committee Member Qi Leyi, political commentator Professor Zhang Zhengxiu were interviewed, and Luo Zhengfang, a drone expert who used to work at NASA and chairman of Taiwan’s Jingwei Aerospace, posted on Facebook, analysing Russia and Ukraine Views of the future situation after the war has reached a stalemate.

Russia’s blitzkrieg against Ukraine failed

Qi Leyi pointed out that Russia’s overall military strength is much better than Ukraine’s, but why is the Russian army deadlocked? Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy is to quickly occupy Kyiv and capture Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which can bring down the Ukrainian government. Immediately build a pro-Russian regime, just as the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, but the Blitz has failed.

Qi Leyi, military expert and advisory committee member of the 2021 National Defense General Review of the Republic of China, file photo. (Wu Minzhou / The Epoch Times)

Zhang Zhengxiu compared the military strength of Russia and Ukraine, respectively, the total strength is 850,000: 200,000; the annual military expenditure is about 58.2 billion US dollars: 5.5 billion US dollars. He pointed out that although the Russian side did not admit it, the Russian army suffered heavy losses due to the serious resistance of the Ukrainian army, and the forces that the Russian army wanted to occupy Ukraine and maintain stable control in Ukraine were not strong enough.

Qi Leyi said that the Russian and Ukrainian forces must be compared with the forces that Russia has put into Ukraine. It is impossible for the Russian army to invest all its forces in the Ukrainian battlefield, because Russia has a large territory, and they have to defend in the Baltic Sea, the Caucasus, and the Far East. What can be mobilized is the strength of the Eastern Military Region. The Russian army invested about 190,000 people in attacking Ukraine, which is equivalent to the strength of Ukraine.

At dawn on February 24, Russian forces began to attack Ukraine. Qi Leyi said that Russia claimed to have destroyed several military airfields in Ukraine on the first day of the invasion, but there have been air battles since then, which shows that these airfields have not been completely destroyed. The destruction of the Ukrainian airport also made it impossible for the subsequent large-scale Russian airborne troops to enter the Ukraine in time.

He said that another important reason is that the Ukrainian army quickly disintegrated into pieces. Although Russia hopes to find the main force of Ukraine and annihilate it at once, the problem is that it has not yet captured the main force of the other party.

Qi Leyi said that on March 21, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the number of tanks and armored vehicles destroyed in Ukraine was 1,506, accounting for only 10.9% of the total number of Ukraine; less than 3 percent.

Ukraine’s Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger portable missiles have made contributions

He estimated that there were about 120 Ukrainian fighters, and Russia announced on March 16 that it had destroyed 111 fighters, which means that it has destroyed more than 90%; in addition, it destroyed 68 helicopters, about 50%, but it did not fully grasp Ukraine’s air supremacy.

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The picture shows the needle missile. (DOD/Getty Images)

“The Ukrainian air defense missile system still has a certain combat capability.” He pointed out that the Ukrainian army has always destroyed Russian aircraft, including SU-34 bombers, which means that the Russian army is not enough precision-guided weapons. In particular, in addition to its own SA-18 air defense missiles, the Ukrainian army has been providing a lot of stinger portable missiles from the West, so the Russian army’s helicopters were beaten badly by the Ukrainian army.

Qi Leyi pointed out that the Ukrainian army has a very good grasp of the Javelin anti-tank missiles and stinger portable missiles aided by the West and played a great role in this war. It seems that the quality of the Ukrainian army is quite high.

Musk Starlink assists Ukrainian drones to attack the Russian army to win

He also pointed out that the Ukrainian-made UAV PD-1 and the TB-2 “integrated attack” UAV bought from Turkey played an important role in this operation.

The world‘s richest man Elon Musk’s Starlink assisted the Ukrainian army to win the battle of drones. This advanced low-orbit satellite service allows the Ukrainian army to contact each other even in the event of a power outage, and helps the Ukrainian army to locate Russian tanks and positions. And snipe the invading enemy army. The picture shows 60 Starlink satellites stacked together. (Official SpaceX Photos Wikipedia)

“Musk’s Starlink assists UAVs to play a great role in intelligence reconnaissance and surveillance, while TB-2 can carry 2-4 ground-strike missiles, which can attack Russian military vehicles and positions.” Qi Leyi said that there is no one in Ukraine. The aircraft made the ground troops unfold smoothly, and basically mastered the advancement and deployment of the Russian ground troops, which put a lot of pressure on the Russian army. Therefore, the Russian army has greatly increased the attack on the UAV of the Ukrainian army since the 16th.

Luo Zhengfang posted on Facebook that the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces posted on Facebook on February 27 a video of the Ukrainian TB2 drone attacking the Russian military convoy in Kherson. Another video is the destruction of the Russian Buk anti-aircraft missile vehicle in Zhytomyr TB2, which shows that as long as the asymmetrical combat surprise attack is fully utilized, it can effectively suppress the combat power and the large number of the Russian army.

U.S. President Biden will announce an additional $800 million (about NT$22.8 billion) in military aid to Ukraine. The picture shows that on February 13, the US-made stinger missile arrived at the airport near Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine. (Sergei SUPINSKY/AFP)

The number of Russian generals killed by sniping is high, and the Ukrainian military intelligence should come from the United States and NATO support

The U.S. Department of Defense previously estimated that at least 7,000 Russian troops were killed, and the Russian military’s combat effectiveness fell below 90%. NATO’s assessment is even higher, putting 7,000 to 15,000 Russian soldiers killed, for a total casualty toll of 30,000 to 40,000.

“Five generals in Russia were killed by sniping”, Qi Leyi said, this number is too high, “The Ukrainian army can even grasp the commander of the Russian army. Where can the Russian troops go?” But the Ukrainian army wants to snipe the Russian generals, and the acquisition of this delicate and sophisticated intelligence should come from the support of the United States and NATO.

Luo Zhengfang said that the Russian fighter jets continued to be shot down, which shows that the Russian military aircraft are still being effectively monitored and targeted. This shows that in addition to the Ukrainian army still retaining a considerable degree of ground mobility and air defense energy, allied forces including the United States and NATO also assist in the surveillance of air targets in the periphery, and even the powerful space combat power of the US military also provides intelligence and search, and assists in airspace. monitor.

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As part of the U.S. military’s large-scale space strategy, the U.S. Space Development Agency plans to build a swarm system with hundreds of satellites in the “transmission layer” above the earth as a hub for space communications by 2024. This is a schematic diagram of the transport layer. (US Space Development Agency)

Luo Zhengfang pointed out that the U.S. military’s space department, including various military satellites detected from communications and remote sensing, and even satellite-borne synthetic aperture radar, is an active reconnaissance system that is not affected by weather and can be used day and night. The peripheral monitoring of various high-altitude reconnaissance and early warning aircraft has actually wrapped the entire airspace of Ukraine without leakage.

“Although the U.S. military and NATO claim not to directly intervene in the Ukrainian battlefield, or disagree with the establishment of a no-fly airspace,” he said, as long as the Russian army’s targets and the trajectories of aircraft and missiles are immediately reported to the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian army can Use the ground air defense capabilities that are still preserved to intercept and kill.

In modern warfare, the two spaces of space and information network are critical and important

Luo Zhengfang pointed out that the Russian army has not produced many advanced guided weapons. The so-called mighty polar bear, and many seemingly various weapons, weapons that rely on accurate navigation of satellite systems have suffered many failures and crashes at the beginning of the war. Or the dilemma of bombing the target, it can be seen that the Russian navigation and positioning satellite system GLONASS is actually quite fragile in anti-interference.

“It’s not that Russia doesn’t have drones or missiles, but it still needs to ask China for help,” he said. The key is to look forward to the Beidou satellite navigation system on which China’s equipment relies. However, the U.S. military has also been developing countermeasures for many years to interfere with the CCP’s Beidou satellites by electronic warfare and counteract the satellite-based guided weapons of China and Russia. The CCP is afraid of assisting Russia. Accelerate verification of countermeasures.

He emphasized that Ukraine must be secretly assisted by the U.S. military and NATO countries, and it has performed exceptionally well in electronic warfare confrontation. In addition to effectively suppressing the various search radars of the Russian army from the air to the ground, it also blinds the Russian army and uses space. (SPACE) and the information network (CYBER) have two major spatial advantages, grasp the dynamic distribution of the Russian army in advance, and successfully make the necessary communication links between the various units of the Russian army lost. Break each.

“The Russian-Ukrainian war has only been fought until now, and the world has seen how modern warfare is played. In addition to the traditional three-dimensional space, the two spaces of space and information networks are critical and important.” Luo Zhengfang said.

Russia incapable of paralysing Ukraine’s Internet

One month after the Russian invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made an astonishing publicity message to the world through an online video. Minister of Science and Technology Fedorov said that Ukraine has been working hard for more than two years to strengthen the resilience of the Internet, and now Russia has no ability to paralyze the Ukrainian Internet.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delivers a video address to the U.S. Congress on March 16, 2022, in the Congressional Auditorium at the U.S. Capitol Visitor Center in Washington. (J. SCOTT APPLEWHITE/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Qi Leyi said that apparently Russia has no way to counteract, because to counteract, the entire network system must be destroyed, so that Ukraine cannot transmit information, but the Russian military’s network connection will also have problems, and Russia’s information transmission will also be destroyed. , which is why until now, Ukrainian people can still use mobile phones, and Zelensky can also give speeches to the world.

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Ukrainians rebel against Russia in various ways for the realization of a “free Ukraine”

U.S. President Biden announced on the 13th to provide Ukraine with $800 million in new military aid, including air defense systems, 100 Switchblade drones and other weapons and equipment.

Zhang Zhengxiu said that the Russian-Ukrainian war did not stop, and the Russian army defeated many Ukrainian cities with superior military strength. However, the Ukrainian military and civilians still struggled to resist. Putin should have asked the CCP to provide weapons and equipment, etc. Although US Secretary of State Blinken has warned the CCP, the secret alliance between China and Russia is obviously an open secret, and it is still unknown how the CCP will aid Russia.

“It can be seen that Ukraine’s morale is high,” he analyzed, and both the democratic camp and the dictatorial camp have privately intervened in the Russian-Ukrainian war. It is impossible for Russia to control Ukraine by military force, so it is exploring new modes of aggression, such as attacking Ukraine. Attacks in the north and west, but the Ukrainians will resist in various ways, so the situation of striving for “free Ukraine” has been formed. If the war is prolonged, both Russia and Ukraine will be miserable.

The Russian army’s attack on Ukraine is deadlocked, Putin underestimates the enemy and misjudges the situation

Zhang Zhengxiu said that this time Russia launched the war of aggression against Ukraine, which may be Putin’s misjudgment of the situation, because in the more than 20 years of Putin’s rule, he has fought the Chechen war, the Georgia war, the Crimean war, the Syrian war, etc., and won the war. These wars have boosted Putin’s popularity. When Russia fought Ukraine this time, he thought the people would support him, but the Russian-Ukrainian war came to a deadlock, which surprised him.

On March 22, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the governor of Novgorod in the Kremlin. (Mikhail Klimentyev/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images)

Qi Leyi said that Russia’s biggest mistake was that Putin was too confident in the entire war and underestimated the enemy. He estimated that the Russian army’s invasion of Ukraine was a decision made by Putin and a small group of people close to him.

Russia invaded Ukraine, was jointly sanctioned by the United States, the European Union and other Western countries, and was expelled from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system, which is equivalent to cutting off the external connection of global finance and import and export commodities. Qi Leyi said that Russia was kicked out of SWIFT, and the foreign exchange reserves of more than 600 billion U.S. dollars could not be used. It was also faced with countries getting rid of their energy dependence on Russia, and who would sell oil and natural gas in the future, and the economic consequences would be serious.

He said that Putin did not expect that NATO and Western democracies, whether morally, diplomatically, economically or militarily, would be so united and comprehensive in supporting Ukraine. Putin needs to find a way to go down the stairs in a decent manner as soon as possible, otherwise his losses will be huge. Of course, Ukraine may be even worse, but in this way, the Russian army will consume a lot.

Responsible editor: Lin Yan#

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