[Epoch Times, February 23, 2022](The Epoch Times reporters Lin Yan and Luo Ya interviewed and reported) The escalation of the Ukraine crisis has tested the new cooperative relationship between China and Russia. Expert analysis said that Beijing is like walking a tightrope, carefully weighing the stakes.
Russia’s conflict zone with Ukraine and NATO is where China’s Belt and Road Initiative and goods and goods are transported. A considerable part of the China Railway Express runs from Russia through Belarus, and then enters the European hinterland from Poland.
Since 2013, the CCP’s “One Belt, One Road” project has targeted Eastern Europe. As a major country in Eastern Europe, Ukraine has always been a key investment and trade location for Beijing. In 2019, China surpassed Russia for the first time and became Ukraine’s largest trading partner. In 2020, China and Ukraine signed the “Belt and Road” cooperation plan, and China has invested in a lot of projects in Ukraine.
Su Ziyun, director of military strategy and industry at the Taiwan Institute of National Defense Security, said that if Beijing takes a more hostile stance towards Ukraine this time, or supports Russia’s stance, then the effect of the CCP’s “Belt and Road” investment in Ukraine and even other Eastern and Central European countries will be affected. is bound to decrease further.
Because these countries have discovered that the plan of cooperation with China may not always be completed in the end, and the completed plan will always bring some problems.
Supporting the Russian Communist Party or falling into serious geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe
More seriously, Beijing is likely to be caught in a very serious geostrategic conflict in the former Soviet Union in Eastern Europe.
Guo Yuren, executive director of the Taiwan Institute of National Policy and a professor at National Sun Yat-Sen University, said that if Beijing supports the independence of the two Ukrainian republics announced by Russia, it is equivalent to disapproving of Ukraine’s sovereignty and integrity, and it will bear the brunt of the former Soviet Union countries. Diplomatic boycott.
Because if Beijing expresses its support for Russia, the former Soviet republics in Eastern Europe will be worried that their national sovereignty and territorial integrity will be invaded by Russia in the future.
“That would make China’s efforts to engage with countries in Eastern Europe in the past few decades completely go to waste,” Guo Yuren said.
As Ukraine crisis escalates, Beijing is in a dilemma
In addition, Western democracies dominated by the United States have begun to jointly sanction Russia. If Beijing turns to Russia, the CCP may also suffer secondary sanctions, and other Western countries may join forces to impose economic sanctions on China and Russia at the same time.
“For Xi Jinping and China, this is completely a disaster, so he doesn’t dare to express his support or disapproval,” Guo Yuren added, “China (the CCP) is in a dilemma for the crisis in Ukraine. “
At an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday night, when most diplomats denounced Russia for escalating tensions with Ukraine, the Chinese envoy seemed careful to avoid mentioning the word “Russia”.
“All parties must exercise restraint and refrain from taking any actions that could escalate tensions,” Zhang Jun, China’s ambassador to the United Nations, said in a six-sentence statement late Monday. “The current situation in Ukraine is the result of many complicated factors. Result.” The Chinese side stated that it avoided naming Russia.
Beijing’s brief speech was in stark contrast to the lengthy joint statement issued by the Chinese and Russian leaders earlier this month. It was the first time Xi and Putin met in Beijing in two years because of the COVID-19 outbreak.
The Sino-Russian joint statement issued after the meeting between Xi Jinping and Putin on February 4 stated that the relationship between the two sides went beyond the model of military and political alliance during the Cold War.
It is worth noting that the meeting between the leaders of China and Russia was before the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics, and Putin admitted on the 21st that the two separatist republics in eastern Ukraine were after the Winter Olympics.
The CCP hopes that Russia will maintain high military pressure against Ukraine and not use force
Li Zhengxiu, a military expert at Taiwan’s National Policy Research Foundation, said: “The CCP should hope that Russia will not use force, but maintain a military high-pressure posture against Ukraine, because the confrontation between the two sides can contain the power of the United States and the European Union, and (make it) have no time to care about the Asia-Pacific. area.”
He said that it is currently impossible to know whether Beijing has privately negotiated with Moscow, but the CCP does not want to offend both sides, so the speech of the Chinese representative at the UN Security Council is only a diplomatic rhetoric, because Xi Jinping knows that he cannot influence Putin and Biden.
He analyzed that Putin hopes to include Ukraine as Russia’s sphere of influence and prevent Kiev from becoming the forefront of NATO’s confrontation with Moscow, so as to prevent Russia from directly facing NATO’s troops. In addition, Putin is still obsessed with the Soviet Union, believing that as long as it is strong, the European Union and the United States, which do not want to fight, will choose to compromise and let Russia take whatever it takes.
Li Zhengxiu said that Putin is not in a hurry to start a war with Ukraine. He only needs to take control of the two separatist regions and see how Kiev and other countries respond before taking the next step.
“Putin must also think about how to end the war. After all, a Ukraine with a high degree of hostility to Russia is equivalent to Afghanistan in the Soviet era, and I am afraid it will become a nightmare for Moscow.”
Responsible editor: Ye Ziwei#