The level of inflation will also rise in the next quarter and the number one accused among commodities is oil whose cost is crucial to that of chemicals, followed by steel and copper. The Central Bank of China writes this in its first report of 2021, underlining the interaction between raw materials and consumer prices in the coming quarters. As for imported inflation, to keep it under control it will be necessary to monitor the impact between the import of raw materials and the rising costs of the prices of industrial products.
The sudden increase in raw materials
It is perhaps the bitterest chapter of the first Central Bank of China report for 2021 and the biggest concern for the Chinese economy.
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“The global economic recovery – writes the Central Bank – has pushed the demand for raw materials; in a context of extremely free liquidity, the prices of commodities such as iron materials, copper, oil and soybeans have risen rapidly. Given last year’s low base effect, global inflation indices may generally rise for some time in the future, leading to further increases. “
The global prices of raw materials and the inflation indices of the main economies have, in fact, shown an upward trend.
At the end of April 2021, the price indices of WTI 53 crude oil futures, LME copper futures and CRB spot commodities recorded year-on-year growth of 187%, 89% and 51% respectively.