Home World [Foresight Quick Review]Omikron’s Epidemic Attacks Beijing and Tianjin?Xi Jinping’s Dilemma | Tianjin Epidemic | Xi Jinping

[Foresight Quick Review]Omikron’s Epidemic Attacks Beijing and Tianjin?Xi Jinping’s Dilemma | Tianjin Epidemic | Xi Jinping

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[Epoch Times, January 11, 2022]Hello friends, today is January 10 (Monday), welcome to “Foresight Quick Review”, I am Tang Jingyuan.

The farce of “covering one’s ears to zero” in Xi’an has not yet ended. When the outbreak of the epidemic in Henan is steadily rising, no one expected that Tianjin, known as the “Beijing moat”, completed the process from the detection of cases to the date of discovery in one day. The double-digit surge, and then to the whole process of the rapid soft closure of the whole city and the hard closure of some parts of the city, there is another “hearing-off”, but this time it is “quick to cover the ears”.

Today we will pay attention to the latest development of the epidemic in mainland China, especially the epidemic in Tianjin, which has reached the city of Beijing, directly threatening the stability of Zhongnanhai and the holding of the Winter Olympics, and its impact in both the medical and political fields is huge. of.

[Tianjin broke out the local Omicron epidemic]

The epidemic in Tianjin began in the early morning of January 8, and the city prevention and control headquarters received reports from Jinnan Hospital twice, saying that two people tested positive for the new coronavirus nucleic acid. Both of them are female, a 29-year-old staff member of a nursing facility. She suddenly developed chills, fever and a runny nose in the early morning of January 6. On the 7th, she took the initiative to go to Jinnan Hospital to test for nucleic acid and was confirmed to be positive.

Another 10-year-old student from Xianshuigu No. 7 Primary School in Jinnan District also had a fever. He was accompanied by his family to the fever clinic of Jinnan Hospital on the 7th, and was diagnosed on the 8th.

These two cases are the earliest cases that can be found in the current wave of epidemic in Tianjin. The biggest thing they have in common is that they have never left Tianjin within 14 days before the onset of the disease, and they have no history of contact with overseas personnel. They are both local cases.

In the middle of the night on the 8th, the Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention completed the virus whole genome sequencing of the two cases. According to the official unified text, it was confirmed that the two viruses belonged to the VOC/Omicron variant (BA.1 evolutionary branch). , belong to the same transmission chain, and cannot be confirmed to be the same transmission chain as the sequence of the imported cases of Omicron variant found in Tianjin.

The “Omicron variant of imported cases found in Tianjin” mentioned here means that the imported case discovered in Tianjin on December 13 last year belongs to the Omicron variant, which is different from the local strain this time. the same chain of transmission.

Therefore, this expression, in vernacular terms, is the first time that Tianjin has discovered a local Omicron virus infection that has nothing to do with overseas imports, and the virus sequences are different, and there is no intersection between the two cases. Source unknown.

When it comes to Omicron, I think my friends know its power, right? It is the culprit of millions of confirmed diagnoses in the United States every day. So we can imagine how nervous Tianjin officials are about this.

Sure enough, as of 9 p.m. on the 8th, Tianjin Jinnan District immediately reported that 18 new positive infections were found during screening.

As soon as the news came out, the Internet was instantly fried. At 10:10 an hour later, the Tianjin Epidemic Air Defense Command issued the 2022 Announcement No. 1. The core message was 6 words: Do not leave Tianjin unless necessary. This is actually a soft lockdown.

Three hours later, in the early morning of the 9th, Tianjin Secretary Li Hongzhong, who was the leader in the world with his “loyalty to President Xi is absolutely disloyal”, had to stay up late for a meeting, and then announced that Tianjin would start at 7:00 a.m. on the 9th. Nucleic acid testing, Tianjin has entered a “wartime state”.

The latest situation now is that within one day from 0:00 to 24:00 on January 9, Tianjin reported another 21 new local cases, all in Jinnan District. Then the city’s inter-provincial transportation lines were all stopped, classes were suspended in some areas, and scenic spots were closed.

At the same time, what has attracted much public attention is that residents in many districts of Tianjin have set off a rush to buy food and daily necessities. Several videos have circulated on the Internet, showing that many supermarkets and vegetable markets are panic buying.

In another vegetable market, someone used a hand-held loudspeaker to appeal to the residents to calm down and let everyone believe in the country and not to rob, but almost no one paid any attention to him. After all, the people of Xi’an have believed in the country once, and the ready-made tragedy and lessons are there for everyone to see.

[Omicron seriously challenges the “zero” policy]

The sudden outbreak of the Tianjin epidemic and the rapid progress caught many people by surprise. So far, the Tianjin epidemic has quickly replaced Xi’an in the top three hot searches on Weibo because of its four special characteristics, and has become the focus of close attention at home and abroad.

The first particularity, of course, is that the strain of the Tianjin epidemic came from Omicron. We all know that there is a lot of controversy over whether the appearance of Omicron is a good thing or a bad thing in the medical community, but no matter which side’s point of view, they all admit an undeniable objective fact: Omicron is extremely contagious, and severe Hospitalization and death rates have remained relatively low.

How contagious is Omicron? According to the results of data analysis of the United Kingdom by Imperial College London, it was found that the number of infected cases in Omicron can double in only 3 days or less. Friends may have seen the official rhetoric of the CCP that the strain discovered in Tianjin has spread to the third generation. In fact, this statement has shrunk.

Because the two confirmed cases in Anyang City, Henan Province have been confirmed to originate from college students who returned from Tianjin on December 28 last year, the two are in the same transmission chain. If it is calculated by doubling in 3 days, from December 28 last year to the present, Tianjin’s Omicron transmission has exceeded at least 5 generations.

Last time we talked about one million positives a day in the United States, Omicron was considered the main reason. In the United States, the first positive case of Omicron was discovered in early December last year, and it has only been more than a month since the virus strain has become the most important transmission strain in the United States. Edward Ryan, an expert from Harvard, revealed that nearly 100% of the positive cases in Massachusetts are now Omicron, and Delta has almost completely disappeared from the New England area.

Because of this, Ryan believes that contact tracing is worthless in the context of Omikron sweeping the world, because society as a whole may end up with a positivity rate as high as 20% to 50%, and the speed at which close contacts are screened. It’s impossible to keep up with the spread of Omicron.

Therefore, in the face of such a powerful and contagious virus, the success rate of using administrative means to trace close contacts and cut off the chain of transmission is negligible.

[BaidumapshowsthatthereisanepidemicinBeijing?】

The second particularity, of course, lies in the close relationship between Tianjin and Beijing’s “moat”.

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei three regions are known as the “one-hour traffic circle”, and the traffic is so dense that more than 70 pairs of motor cars travel between Beijing and Tianjin every day. You don’t need to use your imagination to know how much of a threat this density of personnel movement poses to Beijing.

So far, Tianjin has suspended all inter-provincial passenger and chartered services, even express delivery, and at least 48 bus routes in the city have been suspended. The road leading to Beijing was closed, and it has been confirmed that some vehicles entering Beijing have been asked to return.

On the Beijing side, the Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention also issued an announcement yesterday, requiring that since December 23 last year, as long as people passing through Tianjin City, they must take the initiative to report to the community, unit, and hotel, and cooperate with measures such as PCR testing; Local people do not come and go unless it is necessary, and those who commute across the city should all work from home.

Therefore, although Tianjin officially announced that all confirmed cases are in Jinnan District, it would not be surprising if Omicron positive cases were found outside Jinnan District, including in Beijing. You know, according to the data provided by the Harvard professor Ryan we mentioned just now, the positive rate of PCR rapid test is only 50% to 80% for symptomatic Omicron-infected patients, and the sensitivity to asymptomatic patients is even higher. As low as only 30% to 60%.

He even mentioned that 40% of Omicron’s infections were asymptomatic.

Why do nucleic acid tests in mainland China require many rounds and the validity of test reports is often limited to 48 hours? The reason is here.

In my personal judgment, I think Beijing almost certainly has the Omicron case and it’s spreading. Why can we draw this conclusion? You only need to look at the schematic diagram of the destinations relocated from Tianjin a week before the outbreak of the Tianjin epidemic to understand.

According to a report by Health Times, a subsidiary of the People’s Daily, based on Baidu’s Migration Map, the main destinations for Tianjin’s migrants from January 1 to 7 were Beijing, Langfang City, Hebei Province, Tangshan City, etc. land, of which Beijing tops the list with the highest proportion.

As we mentioned just now, the two cases of Omicron in Anyang, Henan have been confirmed to be from the Tianjin transmission chain. What is the proportion of people who moved out of Tianjin to Anyang? Only 0.43%. And what is the proportion of Tianjin to Beijing? It is 17.92%, more than 40 times more than Anyang. The Baidu migration map reflects only part of the situation, and the actual situation will only be more.

So why hasn’t Beijing seen any reports of Omicron cases? On the one hand, most of the Omicrons have mild or no symptoms similar to a cold, and many people treat it as a common cold or recover on their own. On the other hand, Beijing is currently in an extremely embarrassing, dilemma, and it is very difficult for the authorities to declare or not declare the epidemic. The main reason behind this is of course the Winter Olympics.

[The epidemic hits the Winter Olympics and Xi Jinping is in a dilemma]

This is also the third particularity brought about by the Tianjin epidemic.

I think everyone is very clear about how important the Winter Olympics are to the current CCP, and how important it is for Xi Jinping to shape the grand narrative and propaganda of “rising in the east and descending in the west, and the rise of a great power”, so we will not repeat it.

The point I want to say here is that the key issue in Beijing now is not whether the epidemic is spreading, but when it will be announced.

As we all know, the CCP’s announcement of an epidemic in a place is completely tied to its comprehensive zero-removal model. As long as an epidemic is announced in a certain place, and it is still a strain of Omicron, the local and surrounding areas have to enter the closed or semi-closed city. state, and then a complete set of nucleic acid testing for all staff comes up.

This is usually done, and the authorities feel that this is the exclusive advantage of the red system. However, when the Olympic Games are less than a month away from the opening, doing so will turn into a disadvantage, and it is an absolute negative energy. The price of the Winter Olympics has all gone in vain.

We can fully imagine that if Beijing held the Winter Olympics against the backdrop of the lockdown of the city, it would be a picture of super-magical realism: there Xi Jinping is showing the world his great achievements in fighting the epidemic, and he is justifiably holding the Winter Olympics. Announcing that the world has chosen China, and history has chosen the CCP; groups of anti-epidemic personnel here are like devils entering a village to spray disinfectant on the empty streets; in Beijing at night, there are shrill shouts of buildings, or crowds all night long. The noise of nucleic acid testing together.

Even if there are two more daring people who make noises like beating gongs on the balcony or shouting “all fake”, then Xi Jinping’s event will not be called the Winter Olympics, but will become Beijing winter anti-epidemic clearing live broadcast.

I believe that Xi Jinping would rather postpone the Olympics than to see this happen.

On the other hand, if the CCP wants to hold the Olympic Games as scheduled, and it has to try its best to create an image that Beijing is very successful in fighting the epidemic and Beijing is safe, it can only pretend to be calm and keep the city from being locked down and not engaging in national nucleic acid. But in this way, once the virus spreads out of control, it may also ruin the Winter Olympics-everyone knows that it is impossible for paper to cover the fire.

That is to say, at the most critical juncture of the upcoming Winter Olympics, such a big mess has occurred in Tianjin, which is at the foot of the capital, and Xi Jinping is in a dilemma. This thorny situation is probably the first time Xi Jinping has been in power. .

The CCP “relaxes on the outside and tightens on the inside”

Therefore, I think the most likely measure the authorities will take is to “relax on the outside and tighten on the inside”. The so-called “external slack” is to try to suppress public opinion on the epidemic on the surface, through local low-key lockdowns, falsified data, and strict public opinion control to create an illusion that the epidemic is stable and under control, and everything is under control. .

Friends, if you look at the two pictures below, you can see that the epidemic data of the Tianjin authorities has already begun to be falsified.

The “internal tightness” is to carry out internal communication at all levels and secret actions to the main urban area with great influence, so as to achieve the effect of “not closing the city, it is better than closing the city”.

Of course, there must be a premise for this “relaxation on the outside and tightness on the inside”, that is, the epidemic itself is limited to a certain scale, so that the authorities may have room to pretend to be calm. If the epidemic develops like Xi’an, or even exceeds Xi’an, then the authorities may not be able to “external pine” even if they want.

We all know that there has always been a big suspicion in the Xi’an epidemic, that is, the three major transmission chains originating from Xi’an Airport, the source of the epidemic, the total number of infected people did not exceed 60, and the hundreds of ABC three types of close contacts were also unknown. Seeing the anomaly, it stands to reason that the epidemic should have been brought under control.

But what is strange is that on December 16, a community epidemic broke out in many places in Xi’an at the same time, and the source was not clear, and the city was soon forced to be closed. What we mean by citing this example is that Tianjin is in a similar situation, and it is a sudden outbreak of an epidemic of unknown origin in the local area. In this case, the authorities believe that the virus must be chained transmission. There are loopholes in itself, and at the same time they want to Relying only on big data to identify the transmission chain to cut off the transmission route is probably even more wishful thinking.

[Tianjin may now be more extreme closed and controlled]

The last bit of particularity is related to Li Hongzhong.

As we mentioned at the beginning, Li Hongzhong is a famous extremist. When Xi Jinping encountered such a major crisis, if he could get away with controlling the epidemic and not spread to Beijing, he would be the first to make a contribution to the 20th National Congress. But if Tianjin falls and the Winter Olympics are affected, his career will almost certainly come to an end.

Therefore, in such an extreme situation and encountering such an extreme person, it is not difficult to imagine that Tianjin’s anti-epidemic is likely to eventually evolve into a situation of “clearing is not absolute, it is absolutely not clearing”. I am afraid that the secondary disasters caused by the control will only be more than that of Xi’an.

If Xi’an has achieved “one positive, the whole building will be taken away”, I am afraid that Li Hongzhong will be able to “one positive, the entire community or even the entire street will be taken away”.

From the closure of Wuhan to the closure of Xi’an, and now to the soft closure of Tianjin, we have all seen that one of the biggest problems brought about by the CCP’s zero-removal model is that many trivial matters that were easy to solve have been artificially created by the extremely blunt one-size-fits-all policy. If it is forced into a major event, then the government will mobilize the whole people to concentrate on the major event; while under the political command, the major event is often completed as a funeral, and finally the party’s mouthpiece will force the funeral to be a happy event to end it.

This process has been repeated over and over again in the land under the rule of the CCP. Will this Tianjin epidemic be an exception? We might as well wait and see.

Okay, that’s it for today, thank you for watching and listening, see you next time.

“Foresight Quick Review” Production Team

Responsible editor: Li Hao#

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