PARIS – A few days after the anniversary of the first lockdown, when there was the sudden attack of the pandemic, Emmanuel Macron is forced to launch a new lockout of four weeks. This time it’s not a national closure like last spring and autumn.
The big news is that the government proceeds at the local level as it already happens in Italy. The third lockdown, which will last until mid-April, will apply to the Paris region, Ile-de-France, and to the northernmost region around Lille, Hauts-de-France. Three departments are added: the Nice area (Alpes-Maritimes,) and the Norman area around Rouen (Eure and Seine-Maritime).
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“We must react to the third wave,” explained the premier Jean Castex, explaining that the new infections have increased by 23% in the last week due to the English variant which, added the head of the government, “is more virulent and potentially more serious”.
The new restrictions
The schools, from infant-toddler centers to middle schools, remain open with pupils in attendance according to the protocols. “We want to preserve the education of our young people,” Castex stressed. The high schools instead pass all in dad. No more shopping in the capital which becomes the red zone. All non-essential businesses will be closed in the sixteen departments under lockdown. The only difference from the past: a few weeks ago bookstores and record shops were included in the “essential” category. The self-certification is also back. The exits are authorized without time limits within a radius of ten kilometers from home and travel between departments is prohibited. There will be a series of exemptions for professional or sporting reasons for minors, as had already happened in the second lockdown decided in November.
The Paris exception
Already in February, the government had imposed a weekend lockdown on the department of Nice and, to the north, of Dunkirk, but not in Paris, which also has the same level of alert. Ile-de-France has 12 million inhabitants, is the economic locomotive of the country, where a third of GDP is produced. And it is the heart of political life and institutions in a highly centralized state. For all these reasons, Macron waited until the end to close Paris. But the capital region is now the epicenter of the third wave. The images of the first patients evacuated a few days ago from hospitals in the region showed that the pressure of the virus has become unbearable.
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The numbers of the alarm
The English variant now accounts for over 73% of new infections in France. In the Paris region, the incidence rate has risen to 446 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, to peaks of 560 in some departments such as Val d’Oise. The hospitals of Ile-de-France welcome 1,201 patients in intensive care, a level already higher than that recorded in the second wave of autumn.
In Hauts-de-France, the incidence rate has risen to 381 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The average age of patients has also dropped, with hospitalizations lengthening. The worsening of the health situation was predicted by many epidemiologists on the example of what had happened in the United Kingdom. And now the executive must justify wasting time in the face of the virus rush. “If we had imposed a lockdown already in January – Castex justified – we would have imposed a three-month lockdown”.
Macron’s Lost Bet
At the end of January, when the epidemic curve was already beginning to rise, and a third lockdown seemed inevitable, Macron had surprised everyone by deciding not to close the country. The French leader, who began studying scientific journals, had decided alone, avoiding following the recommendations of the technical-scientific committee. France has been under curfew since the end of October with bars and restaurants always closed. Macron hoped the restrictions were enough. He wanted to buy time by speeding up the vaccination. But the doses available and the logistics did not accompany his bet. And the English variant made the difference.
Delays in vaccination
So far only 5.7 million people have received at least one dose, about 8% of the French. As if that were not enough, the campaign is more sluggish in some areas of Ile-de-France where infections are growing such as the departments of Seine-Saint-Denis and Seine-et-Marne where the vaccine rate is at 5%. After the new favorable opinion of the EMA, the inoculations with AstraZeneca serum will start again tomorrow. Prime Minister Castex himself announced that he will be vaccinated in the next few hours. The government maintains its target of 10 million French people vaccinated by mid-April.
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