PARIS – The coalition of Emmanuel Macron arrives in front of the left one by only 21 thousand votes in the first round of the legislative elections. The head to head in the first screenings, which gave Nupes a slight advantage Jean-Luc Melenchon, was resolved in favor of the head of state: 25.7% against 25.6. “These are false figures”, complains Mélenchon who accuses the Minister of the Interior of having “manipulated” the data. From the polls, with a record of abstention at 52.4%, a tie essentially emerges between Macron and Mélenchon. The head of state has lost 7 points compared to 5 years ago while the leader of the Nupes (Nouvelle union populaire écologique et sociale) improves the result obtained by the divided left in 2017: the union of the lists will allow more deputies to be sent to Parliament. The various institutes foresee Macron’s Ensemble block in a range between 255 and 295 seats, while Nupes’ left is estimated at between 150 and 210 seats.
Battle to the last vote is announced in the coming days. Macron gathered the loyalists to give the line before leaving for Romania and Moldova. There was to be decided on the voting indications to be given in the constituencies where there are ballots between Nupes and Rassemblement National. “We will support Republican candidates, not those who denigrate the police and want to leave Europe,” he commented. Elisabeth Borne, indirectly attacking Mélenchon also called “First Liar”. The premier reiterated the call to voters for “a solid majority against extremism”.
Elections in France: now the head of the Elysée fears five years as a “lame duck”
by our correspondent Anais Ginori
No polling institute predicts that Mélenchon can win a majority and claim the leadership of the government by imposing cohabitation, but the left is hoping for a surprise. “Matignon does not go away, he approaches”, says the leader of Nupes, about the seat of the executive. To do this he would have to get a strong mobilization of the young people who abstained in the first round. And many Rassemblement National voters should decide to vote for Mélenchon.
It has already happened, with reversed parts, in the second round of the presidential elections: a fifth of the voters of France Insoumise had voted for The pen, not so much by adhesion as by opposition to the head of state. The leader of Rn, which aims to have 40 deputies and in the meantime celebrates the elimination of her sovereign rival Eric Zemmour, has maintained a certain ambiguity, refusing to express a clear preference where there is a ballot between macronists and melenchonists. “Next Sunday – she added – it is important not to leave Macron with an absolute majority that he will abuse”.
Legislative elections France, time for Mélenchon: “We will win, not Macron”
by our correspondent Anais Ginori
Two scenarios stand out in front of Macron: to govern with an absolute majority (289 deputies) or to find oneself with a lower threshold, meeting various hypotheses, including an alliance with the right of the Républicains that dreams of becoming the tip of the balance in the next legislature. Even if the head of state managed to overcome the threshold of 289 deputies, he would no longer have the solidity in Parliament of his first term because En Marche, now renamed Renaissance, had to ally itself with the Modem of the former centrist Francois Bayrou e con Horizon dell’ex premier Edward Philip. In view of the expiry of the mandate, in 2027, in which Macron cannot be reappointed, it is probable that internal wars will be unleashed within the majority. In the immediate future, the French leader risks having to separate from some of his symbolic ministers, risking elimination in the ballot. It is the case of Amelie de MontchalinMinister for Ecological Transition, di Clement BeauneEuropean Affairs, e Stanislas Guerini, Public function. The rule that Macron gave: whoever loses at the polls, leaves the government. But now it could turn into a boomerang.