Original title: Fumio Kishida becomes Japanese Prime Minister. Will there be new expectations for Sino-Japanese relations?
Source: Straight News
After Fumio Kishida was selected as the president of the Democratic Party, he announced the candidates for important positions in the Liberal Democratic Party. What can be seen from these lists? The outside world generally believes that Kishida will be a weak prime minister. Will Kishida become Abe’s puppet? Kishida claimed that after he was elected, he would establish a new assistant to the prime minister to deal with the so-called “human rights issues.” At the same time, he also deliberately discussed the issues of Hong Kong and Xinjiang, China. Will Kishida adopt a tough policy toward China?
Focusing on these issues, Shenzhen TV Direct News reporter Tang Ping in Beijing interviewed Lv Xiaoqing, the vice president of the Chinese Society for the History of Sino-Japanese Relations and the former Counselor of the Chinese Embassy in Japan. Lv Xiaoqing has been in Japan for more than 10 years, including 11 years working in the embassy. Let’s look at the views Lv Xiaoqing shared with Zhixin News.
丨The election of Fumio Kishida is a victory for the “An Ma system” 丨
Tang Ping, Beijing correspondent of Shenzhen TV Direct News:Fumio Kishida should be selected as the president of the Democratic Party. Since the Liberal Democratic Party has a majority in the Japanese parliament, he will take over as Prime Minister of Japan on the 4th, and the cabinet list will also be announced at that time.According to the analysis, the Chief Cabinet Secretary allocated to the formerPrime Minister Shinzo Abe’s faction is Hosoda faction, and the secretary of the Liberal Democratic Party is assigned to the Aso faction, obviously taking care of Abe and Aso.But the important posts are all Abe’s Hosoda faction. What does this mean?
China Society for the History of Sino-Japanese RelationsVice President Lv Xiaoqing:I think this election is actually an election of factions within the Liberal Democratic Party, not even an election of party members within the Liberal Democratic Party. It is a balanced result of the struggle for the interests of factions.This is a concentrated reflection of the fact that Shinzo Abe and Taro Aso are powerful forces known as the “Amasa System” faction in the past 10 years. Therefore, its first round was full of electoral politics.
Some people may be surprised by the results of their elections and think Kono Taro is okay. Many very senior researchers have observed Japanese society and Japanese political parties for a long time. They have seen more mainstream public opinion and public opinion. Of course, they have also seen some performances of Kono Taro. But in fact, the final result was that Fumio Kishida defeated Taro Kono in the form of crushing.
Therefore, Fumio Kishida’s election was not so much his own victory, as it was the victory of the “An Ma system” faction. My first feeling was that Fumio Kishida had complied with the rules of the game of factionalism within the party at a critical moment.
From the perspective of faction politics, it is possible for Kono Taro to be elected, but in the middle Kono Taro chose to unite with Shigeru Ishiba and Shinjiro Koizumi, which is torn apart with Shinzo Abe. Abe and Aso’s choice of Kishida was actually the result of two evils, whichever is less.
The Japanese government is considering convening an interim parliament on October 4 to elect a new prime minister. With the current power of the Liberal Democratic Party, the president of the Liberal Democratic Party will become the prime minister. Of course, a democratic agenda must also be adopted. But as a member of the Liberal Democratic Party, even if you don’t like the elected president, if you don’t elect him as prime minister, you will be severely punished by the party, so there is no doubt that Fumio Kishida was elected prime minister on the 4th.
In fact, it is two big pieces. First, from the perspective of the Liberal Democratic Party. There used to be a saying in the party called the “Big Three”, not the party president, but the secretary general, who is equivalent to the secretary general; followed by the policy investigation chairman, whose function is to predict the situation; and the third is the election of the chairman of the countermeasures. This time he also gave a general affairs chairman to Fukuda Yasuo’s son, Fukuda Tatsuo. These places are all set, and among the “big four”, there is no one sent by Kishida Fumio himself.
In general, the important positions in the party, except for the party’s president, have basically been assigned to the Abe and Aso factions. The chairperson of the policy investigation gave Takaichi Sanae, saying that she is no faction, but in fact she is 100% Abe faction. Therefore, at present, Fumio Kishida can be said to be a lonely person in the party.This is obviously an exchange of final election benefits。
Second, from the perspective of the Japanese government. According to Japan’s political system, the prime minister appoints the ministers, but the prime minister appoints the ministers. In fact, at the moment when the president of the party is decided, the arrangements of the ministers are basically determined. Judging from the situation disclosed now, the Japanese cabinet is a “big four”, except for the Minister of Defense, the other three have been set. And none of these three belonged to the Kishida faction, which was a bit unexpected. Kishida is now the prime minister himself, and his faction does not even occupy an important ministerial position. I guess the defense minister in the end may be a result of a compromise of interests. Although Fumio Kishida realized his prime minister’s dream, he did not promote his own power. He became a weak party president and weak prime minister.
NSWill Kishida become Abe’s puppet?NS
Tang Ping, Beijing correspondent of Shenzhen TV Direct News:You just said that Kishida will be a weak prime minister. Former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that “Kishida cannot go against Abe’s wishes.” Do you think Kishida will become Abe’s puppet?
China Society for the History of Sino-Japanese RelationsVice President Lv Xiaoqing:I don’t think so. Although Kishida is a weak president and prime minister, Kishida is different from his predecessor. Judging from the performance of Yoshihide Suga for more than a year, he is basically a puppet. He has no policy propositions of his own, no powerful means, no power of his own, and no achievements. In fact, Yoshihide Suga was given a chance, and he was not successful in handling the epidemic and the Olympics for so many years as Chief Cabinet Secretary. But Kishida and Yoshihide Suga are different. First, Kishida itself has factions. Second, although the Abe and Aso factions played a big role in this election,But after all, Kishida is different from Suga Yoshihide. He did not come up by name, he came up through elections.Third, Kishida once ran for prime minister, and he is psychologically prepared, prepared for policies, and prepared for his contacts to be prime minister. Therefore, although Kishida is weak, he also has considerable room for independent governance.
Now some people say it’s still “RearAbe regime”, I disagree, I think it is still the Kishida Fumio regime.
Tang Ping, Beijing correspondent of Shenzhen TV Direct News:Kishida stated that he will introduce new measures such as tens of trillions of yen in economic policies, establish a “new type of Japanese capitalism,” and “make every effort to deal with the severe new crown epidemic.” In addition, Kishida also advocated the unity of Japanese citizens through a tolerant political system. Do you think he can lead Japan out of the “national disaster” he calls it?
China Society for the History of Sino-Japanese RelationsVice President Lv Xiaoqing:I think this exactly reflects Kishida Fumio’s independent policies and propositions. His idea of a trillion-dollar economic policy is itself a denial of Abenomics. Abenomics actually failed. Kishida’s new proposition is to open up the current predicament of Abenomics. The core of Abenomics is easing. This looseness makes capital more concentrated in the hands of big companies, big capitalists, and big consortia, but not in the hands of the people. Therefore, it is difficult for Kishida to get the support of the big factions in the party, but he hopes to get the support of the people. Because judging from this election, Kishida is obviously inferior to Kono in terms of national support. Because Kishida is a relatively low-key and cautious person.
Since the beginning of this century, especially after the rise of the new economy represented by the Internet revolution, there has been a big “gap” in Japan, which we call the gap between the rich and the poor. Kishida felt that he continued to reduce the “gap”, which was risky. So if he implements the policy, I think he will get the support of the people at the bottom, but he may be opposed by the big capitalists.
NSWill Fumio Kishida adopt a tough policy toward China when he becomes Japanese prime minister?NS
Tang Ping, Beijing correspondent of Shenzhen TV Direct News:On September 13, Kishida targeted China at a press conference in the National Assembly, claiming that after he was elected, he would establish a new assistant to the prime minister to deal with the so-called “human rights issues.” How do you analyze Japan’s foreign policy in the future? Especially Japan-US and Japan-China relations. Will Kishida adopt a tough policy toward China? Some analysts believe that as a former foreign minister, Fumio Kishida may be easier to manage international affairs. Most analysts expect that he will maintain a strong relationship with the United States and continue to strengthen alliances with Australia and India to build barriers against China.
China Society for the History of Sino-Japanese RelationsVice President Lv Xiaoqing:As our neighboring country, Japan is also a regional power. It has inextricably linked relations with us, and Japan has an alliance with the world‘s largest hegemon, the United States.
Japan has never changed its prime minister since the Abe regime. Yoshihide Suga is a special case. We people are concerned about this election,It is because the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan is fully consuming China in this election process. They say that China is not good enough to gain political benefits.Some of these are consumption, some are so-called Western ideological concepts, and some are deep-rooted Japanese imperialism, which is rooted in racial discrimination.
This concept of consumption is based on the premise that Japan did not thoroughly reflect and plead guilty after the war, but Japan has achieved great economic success, made great progress in culture, and gained a lot of room for international influence. . Therefore, it is not surprising that some people in Japan hold this philosophy.But more often this new Cold War tendency in the West has also been reflected in Japan.Japan regards itself as a member of the West, not a member of the East.
Fumio Kishida does not belong to the traditional Japanese right wing, but more to gain political benefits and consumption. So some of his language is election strategy, and some are personal ideas.
Five of the most prominent issues in China-Japan relations are listed.
First, the Taiwan issue. Japan in March of this year, in Japan and the United States “2+2”Since the beginning of the Taiwan issue, a series of actions have made Japan rush to the forefront of the Taiwan issue.Some people say that Japan is acting as a fighter for the United States, and some people say that Japan itself is pressing the United States. Generally speaking, Japan’s performance is very positive, even some radical and breakthrough.
On the Taiwan issue, I think Kishida Fumio was not driven by emotions to make some irrational behaviors.However, it cannot be ruled out that the so-called Taiwan momentum formed by the Japanese political circles, especially the Liberal Democratic Party and the public opinion circles, will not immediately change its course, and there may be new moves.
Second, the Diaoyu Islands issue. It is actually a rigid issue between China and Japan, a territorial issue. We all know that in the second regime of Abe, at the end of 2012, between the time when he stepped down, there was a period of Sino-Japanese relations that fell to the coldest time, that is, Japan’s so-called “buying of islands.” At the end of 2013, Abe visited the Yasukuni Shrine. So at that time, the contradictions were superimposed, the historical problems, the Diaoyu Islands problems, and the Taiwan problems were all superimposed.In such a difficult time, Fumio Kishida was the Minister of Foreign Affairs.After 2014, the Abe regime has gradually converged on the issue of China. Until the end of 2014, Prime Minister Abe came to Beijing to participate in APEC. This is very important. The prerequisite for Abe’s participation in APEC is that China and Japan have reached a consensus on four principles.
It should be said that at that time, Fumio Kishida, as the chief official in charge of Japanese diplomacy, as the first responsible person, he played an active role in promoting, we should see this. To take a longer look, during his more than 20 years of political career, Kishida Fumio has not made radical personal remarks on the Taiwan issue.
So my conclusion is,Kishida Fumio has become Japanese Prime Minister, and we can expect something from China-Japan relations.
We need to see two important factors. The first is the Chinese factor.
The biggest failure of Yoshihide Suga is the economic failure and the disadvantage of fighting the epidemic. Therefore, after Kishida came to power, his first task was not diplomacy, but economy. Japan’s economy cannot be separated from China. Some people say that the economic relationship between China and Japan is inseparable from anyone. I disagree with this statement. Judging from the specific economic statistics, it is more that Japan is inseparable from China. So in terms of the internal driving force in Japan, the economy will drive the Kishida regime to cooperate more with China rather than confront it. In the later period of Yoshihide Suga’s regime, we were also very surprised. While aggressively attacking China, we quickly approved RCEP. It is worth mentioning that the technocrat in charge of Japan’s TPP was Fumio Kishida. I think there is a lot of room for cooperation between China and Japan in the process of China’s application to join the CPTPP.
We must see the power contrast between China and Japan,We have grown stronger on our own, so we must take the initiative and cannot bet on Sino-Japanese relations on the prime minister of Japan. We are a big country, and we also have the strength to lead Sino-Japanese relations.After Kishida became president and prime minister, have we done more?
The second important factor is the United States. Japan’s diplomacy is structurally subject to the Japan-US Security Treaty, which is rigid.Therefore, changes in Sino-US relations have a great impact on changes in Sino-Japanese relations. Historical experience tells us that this is the case, and reality even more shows that it will be so.Recently, there have been some signs of relaxation in Sino-US relations, and Japan’s relations with China have been largely affected by Sino-US relations. I think we can take the initiative to do some work to encourage the Kishida regime to expand more positive things and even more negative space. Zoom out.
There are two positive factors next.The first positive factor is the Beijing Winter Olympics. We have been supporting the Tokyo Olympics in Japan since its bid to host it. We sent so many athletes. In the end, we were the big winners. In a sense, Japan is also the winner. I have repeatedly told Japanese diplomats that I am fully affirmed that you have successfully hosted the Olympic Games under such difficult circumstances. Now the West will have some noises about the Beijing Winter Olympics, I think Kishida can do it.
The second next year is September 29th, the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan. This is a big year and an opportunity. If the relationship between the two countries is normal, the two sides should have planned various activities since last year. Obviously, they have encountered resistance now. We look forward to Kishida, as prime minister, as a senior diplomat, taking 50 years of normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan next year, as a major historical opportunity to improve and develop China-Japan relations, and do something that will benefit the people of the two countries and the relationship between the two countries. thing.
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