▲On March 13, local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a speech at the Japan Liberal Democratic Party conference held in Tokyo, expressing his intention to amend the Japanese constitution. Data map of Fumio Kishida.Photo/Xinhua News Agency
According to CCTV reports, on March 13 local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida delivered a speech at the Japan Liberal Democratic Party Congress held in Tokyo, expressing his intention to change Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.
The current Japanese constitution was implemented in 1947. Article 9 stipulates that Japan will forever renounce war, threat of force or use of force as a means of settling international disputes. To achieve this goal, Japan does not maintain land, naval, air force and other war power, and does not recognize the country’s belligerent rights. Because of the existence of this provision, the current Japanese constitution is also known as the “peace constitution”.
Since the promulgation of the “Peace Constitution”, there have been constant attempts to promote constitutional amendments within Japan. Although Fumio Kishida has a “dove faction” in Japanese politics, he has been an active “constitutional revisionist” since he ran for prime minister, and has repeatedly advocated and promoted constitutional revision. This time, the old tune was repeated at the Liberal Democratic Party conference, apparently thinking that the “time” to amend the constitution has come.
On the grounds of security, let loose on constitutional amendments
Since the war broke out in Ukraine, many members of Fumio Kishida’s cabinet, citing changes in the security environment, have changed their low-key stance in the past, and have repeatedly created momentum in matters related to the revision of the constitution to explore the way.
For example, Sanae Takaichi, the favorite successor of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party’s political investigation, took the opportunity of someone in Kishida’s cabinet to discuss “actively attacking enemy bases” and asked for a discussion on whether to abandon Japan’s “three non-nuclear principles”. It advocates making exceptions to allow the introduction of nuclear weapons in emergencies and adopting a “nuclear sharing” policy. After Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the bill and decided to establish a special economic zone in the South Kuril Islands, Sanae Takaichi also stated that Russia is no longer a negotiating opponent on the issue of the four northern islands (Southern Kuril Islands).
Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly echoed Takaichi Sanae’s statement, saying that the four northern islands are Japan’s “inherent territory” and Japan has “legal sovereignty.” This statement clearly breaks through Abe’s cautious attitude of promoting peace during the period of Shinzo Abe.
Fumio Kishida quickly responded to this uproar in the Liberal Democratic Party. On the one hand, he renamed the four northern islands as Japan’s “inherent territory”, and on the other hand, he said that although the government has not discussed “nuclear sharing”, all political parties and all sectors of society can discuss it.
It should be pointed out that whether it is “actively attacking enemy bases” or “nuclear sharing”, it has actually broken through the constraints of Article 9 of Japan’s current constitution. “Nuclear sharing” is NATO’s policy to protect non-nuclear members, while Japan is not a member of NATO.
As for the South Kuril Islands as Japan’s “inherent territory”, it directly challenged the “San Francisco Peace Treaty”. The peace treaty grants post-war Japan state status, but on condition that Japan recognizes the independence of the Korean Peninsula and renounces the so-called sovereignty over islands such as Taiwan, Penghu, the Kuril Islands, the Sakhalin Islands, the Nansha Islands, and the Paracel Islands. Today, Japan can reclaim the “sovereignty” of the Kuril Islands. Will there be trouble tomorrow on sovereignty issues such as the Korean Peninsula? This requires vigilance.
In order to stabilize the phase, Fumio Kishida’s motivation to amend the constitution has increased
It should be seen that the Liberal Democratic Party jumped up and down without any scruples, and Fumio Kishida also changed from a “pigeon” to an “eagle”. In addition to the US Biden administration taking the opportunity to play “offshore balancing”, instigating Japan’s constitutional revision forces, it also cooperated with The attitude of Japanese politics towards constitutional revision has changed.
According to the Japanese constitution, the initiation of the constitutional amendment process requires the consent of more than two-thirds of the House of Representatives, that is, the consent of 310 seats. During the Abe era, due to the cautious attitude of the Komei Party, which is allied with the Liberal Democratic Party, on the revision of the constitution, and the opposition party that opposed the revision of the constitution had many seats, the revision of the constitution could only be limited to the discussion stage. But now things have changed. First, the attitude of the Komeito party has changed, and many of the opposition members of the House of Representatives such as the Cadets have also changed their original positions.
According to the “Yomiuri Shimbun” and other Japanese media surveys, nearly 72% of newly elected members of the Japanese House of Representatives this year agreed to amend the constitution. Since the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito ruling coalition have 261 seats, far exceeding the “stable majority” of 244 seats, and 98% of the Liberal Democratic Party members agree to amend the constitution, the Komeito also agrees to part of the constitutional amendment, and the right-wing Restoration Council members 100% agree to amend the constitution, More than 310 seats are expected to agree to amend the constitution. Therefore, if Fumio Kishida really wants to start the revision of the constitution in the House of Representatives, there is no obstacle.
It is worth noting that since the Kishida faction (Hongchi Society) is a small faction in Japanese politics, Fumio Kishida’s promotion of constitutional revision will help him win the support of the Abe faction, the Aso faction, and the Restoration Society, and stabilize their position. Therefore, Fumio Kishida’s motivation to promote constitutional revision has also increased.
The Biden administration cannot turn a blind eye to Japan’s constitutional revision
However, in addition to the threshold of the House of Representatives, Fumio Kishida needs the approval of more than half of the people to complete the constitutional amendment.
In the past, Japan’s anti-nuclear and anti-war forces were relatively strong. A poll at the end of last year showed that about 52 percent of the country’s citizens were cautious about amending the constitution, basically split between support and opposition.
Judging from the current hustle and bustle of the Liberal Democratic Party, Fumio Kishida’s goal of amending the constitution is to abolish Article 9. Of course, there is also another option, that is, the Komeito proposed to retain some of the original Article 9 content, and then change some and add some expressions.
But that’s just a technical thing. The obvious trend is that in Japan, from the political arena to the people, many people are eager to amend the constitution.
The revision of Japan’s constitution is not as simple as changing Japan’s two Self-Defense Forces organizations into the Japanese army. The risks inherent in its constitutional amendment include but are not limited to: even if you do not join NATO, you can enjoy NATO’s “quasi-national treatment”, allowing NATO to gain access to the North Korean nuclear issue and the East China Sea issue; distorting and subverting the post-World War II international order from a legal perspective , increasing the sovereignty disputes in East Asia; worsening the security situation in Northeast Asia, promoting the nuclear race, etc.
The United States cannot turn a blind eye to these risks.
Because Japan’s current “Peace Constitution” was promulgated under the leadership of the United States, and even former President Trump saw the risk of Japan’s rearmament. If the Biden administration views it with an opportunistic attitude, it will not only deny its anti-fascist history, but also plant a ticking time bomb for the so-called US-led international security system.
Beijing News Special Writer | Xu Lifan (Columnist)
Editor | Chi Daohua
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