With President Biden’s visit to the Vatican and his subsequent meeting with Mattarella and Draghi, the “week of multilateralism” begins. First the Roman G20, then the caravan of leaders will move to Glasgow where the UN climate conference (COP26) will open on Sunday and will close on 12 November. Some themes of Rome – vaccines, energy, economy, global taxation and climate – discussed by the leaders of the twenty economically strongest countries (they represent almost 80% of total GDP) will return as protagonists in Scotland. The challenges are intertwined. Impossible to deal with them in watertight compartments. Thus the G20 in the draft of the final document – 11 pages long and anticipated by the “Bloomberg” agency – defines the climate as «an existential challenge». The G20 is committed to “substantially reducing methane emissions”. Migrants will be discussed and protectionism will be rejected – again in anticipation of the draft – “to strengthen multilateral exchanges”. Will be missing – in attendance – Xi and Putin; Biden arrives in Europe bruised by negotiations with Congress. Von der Leyen asks for concrete projects and not just promises. On November 12, it will be understood whether the season of multilateralism will still be alive and well.
Beijing snubs world forums, ahead on coal to relaunch itself
TAIPEI. The absence from the COP26 risks jeopardizing the success of the summit. Yesterday, China took the lead by presenting its updated emissions reduction plan to the UN. The goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 has been confirmed, with the forecast of a reduction in energy consumption by 13.5% by 2025. But in the short and medium term the use of fossil fuels will not decrease. Indeed, it is expected to reach the peak of carbon pollution by 2030, also playing on the official status of a developing country. In recent weeks, among other things, the restrictions already imposed have been suspended due to the energy crisis, with the order to the mines to increase coal production. According to experts, minimal and insufficient improvements for a country responsible for more than a quarter of the world‘s carbon pollution. Xi’s missed trips are officially motivated by his decision not to leave China for the whole of 2021 due to the pandemic, but offer him the option not to sit at tables at which he would feel surrounded.
Lorenzo Lamperti
The Kremlin is still betting on gas, the last hope of returning to count
Vladimir Putin will participate remotely, a necessity while the avalanche of infections and deaths of Covid is engulfing Russia, but also a metaphor of his being increasingly distanced from the international stages that he once successfully trod. Too many sanctions, too many hostilities, too many embarrassments, while the reporters note who preferred to avoid being filmed with the Russian leader in order not to generate controversy and who, on the other hand, was happy to entertain with him (memorable the “high five” of three years ago in Buenos Aires with Saudi prince Mohammed bin Salman, another frowned upon in the salons for the murder of the journalist Khashoggi). The international problems of the Russian president are well known, and they flash like a neon sign above every initiative of the Kremlin: the annexed Crimea, the war in the Donbass, the intervention in Syria, everything that has pushed Russia into isolation, which Putin aims to break, showing himself not only as a “man-squeezable”, but necessary.
The needs on which Russia could prove irreplaceable are few, one less with the abandonment of Afghanistan, but the gas crisis seems to have brought Moscow back to the good times when Gazprom was its true foreign ministry. Putin has recently failed to refrain from gloating in public for Europeans who “have bet too much on the wind” and now need gas. And so, while half of Eastern Europe negotiates prices on methane with Moscow, Moldova switches to rationing after failing to bargain, and Chishinau does not hide that Gazprom was ready for a substantial discount in exchange for a move away from the EU orbit. . In the Kremlin they never believed much in the possibility of an energy transition, and it is not just a question of ideology: for the world‘s largest hydrocarbon producer, betting on green is a bit like a slaughterhouse fighting for the obligation of vegetarianism. With the growing isolation from the rest of the world, even in the field of ideas, the Moscow clock marks an increasingly marked delay, but instead of giving it a boost, the Kremlin tries to put weight on the hands of others, in the name of ” moderate conservatism ”theorized just a few days ago by Putin.
Anna Zafesova
A 555 billion green plan, but Congress decides
Biden goes all out to have the economic and political capital necessary to transform the mission to the G20 and Cop26 into a success. In this way, however, he puts the presidency into play, which in case of defeat could hardly get up again.
The program envisaged that he would leave for Rome at eight o’clock yesterday morning, but instead he delayed by half a day, to make an unexpected blitz in Congress. The aim was to obtain the passage of the $ 1,850 billion “human infrastructure” package, to be added to the $ 1,200 billion physical infrastructure package. With growth held back to 2% by the Delta variant and the supply chain blockade, the president needs this injection of investment to reform American society, revive its popularity that has dropped to 41%, and hit the G20 and Cop26 goals. , including confirming the global minumum tax, curbing Covid, restarting the supply chain, and reducing emissions to contain global warming below 1.5 degrees. The money to achieve these goals is in the two infrastructure packages, therefore essential to save the presidency. The problem is that so far the cross vetoes of democratic moderates and progressives have prevented approval. So yesterday Biden tried everything, presenting a 1.85 trillion plan, which contains 555 billion for the environment, 400 for free kindergartens, 200 for family tax credits. That’s about half of what he promised, but he was forced to cut because the Senate is split in half, 50 seats per party, and therefore cannot afford to lose the votes of moderates Manchin and Sinema. In the House, however, the Democrats have a majority of only 8 votes, and cannot lose more than 3, but here it is the progressives who have the knife on the side of the handle. Biden challenged them, presenting the deal with the moderates without their green light. Speaker Pelosi urged colleagues not to embarrass the head of the White House by rejecting the package while he is at the G20 and COP26. However, if 4 progressive deputies turn their backs on him, his presidency will risk the end.
Paolo Mastrolilli
Leadership on vaccines and climate: “Zero emissions by 2050”
FROM THE ENCOUNTER IN BRUSSELS. Claiming the role of “the world‘s pharmacy” in the fight against Covid19 and a leading continent in the ecological transition “to demonstrate to the world that it is possible to reduce CO2 and grow economically”. The European Union knows it can make a strong contribution to relaunching multilateralism and for this reason it hopes to play a leading role in the G20, but above all in the Cop26.
Ursula von der Leyen arrives in Rome to claim the contribution offered on a global level in the fight against the pandemic, with the aim of contributing to the achievement of the target set by the G20: vaccinating 70% of the world population by 2022. “This year we have distributed 880 million vaccines to our citizens and we exported 1.2 billion ”, he recalled yesterday, underlining the anti-protectionist choice of the Union. Not only that: Europe is working hard to help the countries most in difficulty because “no one is safe until everyone is safe”. Action on two fronts. The first is that of solidarity: the EU states will donate 500 million doses of the vaccine to poor countries. But the second is even more important: “We are committed to increasing the production of vaccines in Africa, which today is still at 1% of demand, with the aim of bringing it to 60% in 2024″ explained von der Leyen, recalling the billion euros already invested.
And then there are the environmental challenges, with Europe aiming to be the first continent to reach climate neutrality in 2050. The way to get there – defined by the Green Deal – is still the subject of internal diatribes, but on the global stage, EU wants to indicate the direction of travel. «The starting point of COP26 is not good – admits von der Leyen – because it is not a question of what we will do in the next 30-40, but in the next ten. We will cut harmful emissions by 55% already by 2030 ». Brussels is also pushing on the Paris commitment relating to climate investments in less developed countries: the goal of 100 billion dollars a year will only be reached in 2023, but according to von der Leyen it must be brought forward to 2022. The EU contributes 25 billion and Glasgow will announce an additional 4 billion from the EU budget by 2027.
Marco Bresolin