In Germany’s Sunday (September 26) federal parliament elections, the winner will not only take over the Chancellor’s scepter from Angela Merkel, but also the Germany that has carved her mark of 16 years in power. This power transfer marked the end of the “Merkel Era” that had lasted 16 years.
Merkel passed on to his successor, apart from 16 years of prosperity and pivotal international status, what are the other challenges?
During Merkel’s 16-year term as prime minister, there were 4 presidents in the United States and France, 5 prime ministers in the United Kingdom, 9 prime ministers in Italy, and 9 prime ministers in Japan. The world has experienced four major crises: the financial crisis, the refugee crisis, and the British Europe and the new crown epidemic.
Observers pointed out that she turned Germany from the “sick man of Europe” in 2005 into one of the pillars of the European economy and an important force on the international stage in 2021, and guided Europe through the past times like a “stable and pragmatic manager”. Major crisis.
She was once known as the most influential woman in the world today. Her 16 years in power has marked Germany’s internal affairs and diplomacy deeply. The economy continues to prosper, and Germany’s global influence has increased, leaving a distinctive feature to the world. Political legacy.
An editorial in the British “Financial Times” said that Merkel left these challenges: adjusting the economic structure, promoting growth, playing a more important role in European affairs and global security affairs, taking a tougher stance against China and being willing to bear it. The risk of paying a price in bilateral economic and trade relations.
Political heritage
Former US Secretary of State Kissinger regarded Merkel as a spokesperson for Europe. He has a saying: “Whose phone number do you call when you want to talk to Europe?” For the past 16 years, the answer to this question has been Merkel.
Matt Qvortrup, Professor of Applied Politics and International Relations at Coventry University, believes that Merkel’s greatest political legacy is the consistent foreign policy that has remained unchanged for 16 years. maintain.
He explained that Merkel was first and foremost a political leader who pursued pragmatic diplomacy, which was different from her two predecessors and mentors-Cole of the Christian Democrats (1982-98) and Schroeder of the Social Democrats (1998- 2005) The memory left to posterity is mainly domestic policy. During Cole’s tenure, the reunification of East and West Germany was completed, Schroeder reformed the national welfare system, and Merkel was recorded in history with international and foreign policies.
Professor Magnus Brechtken from the Munich Institute of Modern History told the BBC that Merkel’s historical legacy to future generations is spiritual and a way of thinking. The characteristic is “rational, pragmatic, and solution-oriented”.
He said: “In the long run, the past 16 years have been quite successful. In addition to economic achievements, they have also paved the way for the country’s future.”
Kovochap believes that Merkel is gone, but in the foreseeable future, whoever wants to talk to Europe will still receive the phone from the German Chancellor’s office; this is the political legacy of Merkel to future generations.
Triangle relation
When Merkel left, the EU faced a series of major challenges, including economic recovery after the new crown epidemic, climate change, and repositioning Europe’s geopolitical role between the United States and China.
In the triangle relationship between Europe, the United States and China, Germany’s position is very important.
The European Union seeks a three-legged situation. What role can Germany, as the leader of the European Union, play in it? Merkel will test her successor’s ruling philosophy and wisdom after her departure.
During Merkel’s administration, she generally followed the basic foreign policy of her predecessor, and paid particular attention to safeguarding Germany’s interests in the world economy. The key link was the economic and trade relations with China.
Her emphasis on the close economic and trade relations between Germany and China has attracted criticism from the United States, the European Union and some domestic camps. Some commentators said that she “adores” and “depends on” China’s economic strength. The threat of authoritarian countries to the Western democratic world.
During Merkel’s administration, the relationship between Germany and the United States gradually became cold. She herself was once an enthusiastic supporter of the US transatlantic policy, but after Bush Jr. and President Obama implemented the strategy of shifting the focus of foreign policy to Asia, the differences between Germany and the United States became apparent, and the relationship became colder. The US CIA’s surveillance scandal was exposed and was once nervous.
The international geopolitical situation is unpredictable, and the situation in 2021 is far from 2005.
In 2014, Russia annexed the Crimea Peninsula of Ukraine; in 2016, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. In the same year, Trump was elected President of the United States with the slogan “America First”, high-profile abandoning multilateralism, and more doubts about NATO , While launching a trade war with China, it also challenged trade relations with the European Union and Germany.
After U.S. President Biden came to power, he managed to improve relations with Germany and other traditional allies, and at the same time, one by one reversed the foreign policy pursued by Trump during his tenure. The Indo-Pacific region became a global hot spot. The U.S. and allies through the Group of Four and the newly established Anglo-U.S.-Australia AUKUS The purpose of the agreement to form an alliance in the region and to compete with China is clear.
No matter who takes Merkel’s class, Germany’s policies toward China and the United States, as well as the triangular relationship between the European Union, the United States, and China, will still be key moves.
Germany and the European Union
The French “Le Monde” analysis pointed out that Merkel has always insisted on the overall situation of Europe. During the European debt crisis, she insisted on keeping Greece in the euro zone and refused to close the border between Germany and Austria, so that smugglers could be allowed to enter the European Union. The influx from the Balkans to Europe is based on placing Europe above the fear of the extreme right.
This is a legacy she left, and whether it is inherited or not depends on her successor.
BBC reporter Hill said that one of the most controversial decisions during Mrs. Merkel’s tenure was to open the country to hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants in the summer of 2015. This move made her an international figure in Time magazine at the time, and also incurred censure from domestic right-wingers and some member states of the European Union.
After the European refugee crisis broke out, Merkel opened the German border and promoted the formulation of a large-scale relief plan of 750 billion euros, including accepting refugees according to quotas, which caused backlash and criticism.
The former Spanish foreign minister described Merkel’s strategy in an editorial published publicly as “waiting for an emergency response after the crisis breaks out”. The result is likely to benefit people who do not follow the rules, such as Hungary, which has categorically blocked the borders of refugees. Right-wing leader Victor Orban.
The Eurozone debt crisis broke out in the early 2010s. Merkel’s decision to delay assistance to debtor countries such as Greece triggered fears that the single European currency might disintegrate. She also drew criticism for insisting that Greece’s international rescue plan must include strict restrictions.
However, from the birth of the euro to weathering the European debt crisis, Germany played a key role in the stability of the single European currency, the euro.
ECFR senior policy researchers Jana Puglierin and Piotr Buras analyzed and pointed out that Europeans trust Germany to defend their interests on a series of issues, and ECFR survey data It shows that this trust is most obvious in two policy areas: economics and finance, democracy and human rights.
They believe that one of the main reasons why Merkel’s Germany has a pivotal influence in the European Union is that Europe generally believes that she is defending the interests of Europe as a whole, not just the interests of Germany.
The baton is now passed to her successor.
Yascha Mounk, an associate professor at Johns Hopkins University, wrote in the “Atlantic” monthly magazine that no matter who Merkel’s successor is, Germany’s internal affairs and diplomacy will not change significantly in the foreseeable future. A stable and tolerant democratic system will continue. If the past 16 years are called the Merkel era, then the Merkel era will be inherited in a sense.
Agence France-Presse quoted analysts as saying that Merkel has not made impressive remarks on the future of Europe, but she has contributed a lot to the European Union’s ability to maintain unity; however, her departure is seen by some commentators. Coming means more possibilities for change.
Analysts from the European Commission on External Relations (ECFR) pointed out that coping with these challenges requires more “foresight and courage”; changes that only touch the skin will not help, and require more radical solutions and political support for these programs.
Domestic achievements
As one of the most influential leaders in the world, Merkel has played a key role in determining European and global political processes. What about internal affairs?
BBC Berlin correspondent Hill said that in the 16 years of Merkel’s tenure as Chancellor of Germany, Germany has undergone tremendous changes and also changed the lives of millions of citizens. First of all, the economy continues to prosper and the German people are getting richer.
According to OECD data, from 2005 to 2021, Germans are wealthier than people in other developed countries. Real per capita GDP (calculated in purchasing power parity) has increased by nearly 20%, the UK is less than 5%, and France, Canada and Japan are less than 10%, Italy dropped by about 7%.
However, after 16 years of prosperity and the implementation of economic policies that consolidate the foundation of competitiveness, Germany’s economic vitality has shown signs of weakening, the fragility of the financial system, and insufficient investment in digital technology and infrastructure.
Many young people in Germany today know only one Chancellor, Merkel, since they were born. In an interview with the BBC, they said that Germany’s democratic system is not perfect but not bad. Their biggest worry about the future is climate change. Many of them think that the Merkel government’s goals in terms of carbon emission reduction and the promotion of renewable energy development are not ambitious and not strong enough. This view is not groundless.
According to Eurostat data, per capita greenhouse gas emissions in Germany are 9.9 tons, the EU average is 7.8 tons, Sweden is 1.8 tons, and Ireland is 13.7 tons. In 2019, renewable energy in the transportation industry accounted for 7.7% in Germany, 8.9% in the EU, 30.3% in Sweden, and 4 in Greece. %.
Another concern of critics is that Germany is lagging behind its competitors in technology and digital technology.
According to data from the European Union, Germany ranks sixth from the bottom in the 21 EU countries in terms of digitization in the public service and business sectors. The most digitized degree is Ireland and the lowest is Greece.
These are also the political legacy that Merkel left to her successor.
After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the Merkel government’s anti-epidemic policy has attracted mixed reviews, but economic recovery will be the top priority for her successor.
Admit refugees
Merkel’s refugee policy once caused domestic conflicts, but it also has a long-term impact on German society. Since the end of the Second World War, Germany has been relying on immigration to supplement its labor force, maintain economic operations, and reverse the trend of population aging. After more than seventy years have passed, more than a quarter of Germans currently have an immigrant background.
BBC reporter Hill pointed out that with the passage of time, the political tensions that accompany the refugee crisis have been resolved, but a few Germans are still very angry, blaming the rising crime rate and threats of terrorist attacks on the refugees and immigrants of the Merkel government. Policy; the backbone of this force is the far-right party AfD, which has successfully entered the parliament.
The attraction of AfD to young people who grew up in the former East Germany stems from their disappointment with Merkel. They thought that Merkel, with an East German background, would prefer the eastern region, especially in terms of economic and welfare policies.
Others criticized Merkel for making a mistake in eliminating gender inequality in Germany; Germany’s men’s and women’s pay inequality is among the most serious in Europe, and more women have been blocked from the elites in business and politics, and so on.
However, Merkel’s supporters pointed out that her appointment as prime minister has set an example for young women, and that most of her key cabinet positions are held by women, including the minister of defense.