What are the possible agreements?
On the plate there seem to be above all two coalition hypotheses, already mentioned on the eve of the vote. The first, in favor of Scholz, is the so-called “traffic light” coalition, nicknamed for the combination of the red of the Social Democrats (with 25.7% of approval), the Green of the Grünen (14.8%) and the yellow of the Freie Demokratische Partei, the liberal democratic party (11.5%). The second, in support of Laschet, would be the “Jamaica” coalition between the CDU, back from 24.1% of the votes, and again Verdi and Liberals. Scholz starts with an advantage from the result of the polls and has already claimed the role, but Laschet is willing to get involved and try the path of an unbalanced understanding more in the center. Even in the more vulnerable condition of “runner-up” in the direct confrontation with his main opponent.
Post-vote negotiations are unpredictable and different formulas cannot be excluded, including a return to the Große Koalition that could create more than one discontent: among the signs that emerged most clearly from the vote is the electorate’s intolerance for the CDU at government, with reservations towards the figure of Laschet that also meander in the twin party rooted in Bavaria (the CSU).
Who will lead the scales?
The tip of the balance becomes the Greens and, above all, the Liberals. Die Grünen have had to scale back their expectations, after polls a few months ago projected them to peaks of over 25%, but they still get almost 15% of the support and can decide the fate of a coalition.
Even the liberals come to a halt below expectations, albeit in a less drastic way, but center a booty of votes (11.5%) which guarantees an unprecedented negotiating strength. In the event of a coalition with the Socialists and the Greens, the party could take on the more “right” positions in economic policy and stem the thrust of the coalition partners, especially on sensitive issues for industry such as the ecological transition.
And when a coalition is formed, what happens?
The coalition that has been formed identifies the candidate who will have to go through the green light of the Bundestag, called to meet within a month of the elections. The president of Germany, a position currently held by Frank-Walter Steinmeier, presents the chosen figure to Parliament and submits him to the secret vote of its members.