In the era of post-Merkel Germany, the range of possible alliances is wide. To obtain a majority after the vote, the parties are now called upon to form governing coalitions. They are identified by well-coded jargon that makes use of a “color” system. Now a standard to synthesize the agreements between the formations.
Each party is recognized by a color:
- Cdu / Csu (black): The darkest of chromatisms has always belonged to the Christian-Democratic Union. They are led by Armin Laschet.
- Spd / Linke (red): The two parties recognize each other with the color that has always accompanied many of the formations of the world left. Their candidate is Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz.
- Fdp (yellow): In the game of alliances for the Bundestag yellow belongs to the liberals. Christian Lindner runs for them,
- Greens (green): Naturally, the color that best represents them goes to the environmentalists of Annalena Baerbock.
How the government is formed
The candidate for chancellor of the party with the most seats leads the talks. But it is not always a valid rule. In the past, teams that came second were mandated to direct the negotiations. An option dusted off by the liberal Fdp candidate during the election evening. The different possible scenarios depend on who will be called to negotiate: in the event of a victory of the SPD, it is likely that the latter will look to the Greens and liberals as first allies.
From the intertwining (political and chromatic) of the formations, the names of the coalitions that will guide the work of the Federal Parliament arise:
- Kenya (black, red, green): Apparition that takes its name from the flag of the African state. This would be an extension of the Big coalition, that is, the Conservative-Social Democratic Grand Coalition that has led the country for the past eight years. To this should be added the contribution of the environmentalist party. Getting the Greens in could guarantee a secure majority.
- Jamaica (black, yellow, green): Alliance between Christian Democrats of the CDU, liberals of the FDP and the Greens. An unprecedented federal level: in 2017 it was a collapse of negotiations for a similar coalition that slowed the formation of a new government. The launch of the Merkel government came in March, six months after the September vote.
To blow up the negotiations with the environmentalists was the Fdp leader Christian Lindner, who now aims to return to power. And the numbers could be there for a coalition entry.
- Traffic light (red, yellow, green): An agreement between the SPD, the liberals of the FDP and the Greens. A hypothesis never tried so far because it was excluded by the Fdp liberals. Which this time do not exclude any option.
- Red-Red-Green – Alliance that includes SPD, Linke and Verdi. Only possible with a significant presence of Social Democrats in the Federal Parliament. Linke must be able to overcome the barrier, a condition not yet certain given that the projections fluctuate around the 5% threshold.
- Kiwi the green nero: An understanding between the CDU and Verdi. at the moment given for unlikely.
In the game of negotiations, one thing is certain: none of the major political players have declared that they want to deal with the xenophobic ultra-right of Alternative for Germany (AfD), currently excluded from all negotiations.