Original title: The Green Party has a precedent for a comeback and victory
During this time, Asted did not care about the latest casualties. She was directing her three sons to rescue the property in the basement of the house.
Asted is the head of a German small and medium-sized enterprise. He lives in Düsseldorf, the capital of North Rhine-Westphalia (hereinafter referred to as “North Rhine-Westphalia”). In the “one-in-a-millennium” flood in Germany, heavy rain caused the water level on the Rhine River in Düsseldorf to soar. Many streets were flooded and basements were flooded.
She told the CBN reporter that in North Rhine-Westphalia, large cities like Dusseldorf, the disaster situation is still manageable, but there are some small towns in the state where houses are mainly made of wood. lost heavily.
“The affected situation of my family, except for the basement was soaked, the car was soaked, that is, it is said that the tap water in some areas is currently polluted due to floods. The tap water that can be directly drunk, we now drink it after it is boiled. Be careful.”
Why is this flood disaster so “fierce”? Asted said that the main explanation for this in Germany is that Germany and other European countries have a special low-pressure weather system this summer, which is related to global warming and climate change.
At present, there are only more than two months left before the German general election. Will the catastrophic flood this time stir up the German election and send the Green Party to power?
German flood once in a thousand years
Uwe Kirsche, a spokesman for the German Meteorological Agency, recently stated that the flood is said to be “once in a hundred years” and is light, perhaps it is a “once in a thousand years” flood, no one can prepare ( Response), because no one can predict that this will happen.
As of 19:00 on the 19th, Beijing time, statistics show that the death toll in Europe during the flooding has risen to 189. About 110 people died in the Ahrweiler area in southern Cologne, Germany, which was the hardest hit. German police believe that as the flood recedes, more bodies may be found. In North Rhine-Westphalia, at least 46 people died.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had returned from the visit to the United States, rushed to inspect the flood-stricken area in the state of Rhineland-Palatinate, and lamented that “the language like German has almost no way to describe such destruction.”
The force of the storm shows that they are “related to climate change,” Merkel said, “We must hurry up, and we must speed up the fight against climate change.”
German government spokesperson Martina Fietz made it clear that the German authorities believe that climate change is the main cause of flooding.
“In principle, global warming has led to an increase in so-called extreme weather such as heat waves, heavy rains and storms.” She said that the average temperature in Germany has risen by 2 degrees Celsius since record.
Based on the interpretation of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and German domestic scientists, it can be seen that a near-static low-pressure weather system appeared over Germany. This unstable baroclinic system usually moves slowly in a limited area and causes heavy rainfall. . The specific manifestation is that the center near the ground shows a low pressure state, and the surrounding is relatively stable high pressure, which causes the air to continue to flow into the low pressure from the high pressure system, and at the same time, the low pressure can not move quickly, and finally forms a thunderstorm and heavy rainfall.
At the same time, geographically speaking, the three low-lying countries of Rubijo (Luxembourg, Belgium and the Netherlands) and the low-lying western part of Germany, which were severely affected by the disaster, became the hardest hit areas.
According to data from the German National Weather Service, during the 24 hours from July 14th to 15th, about 100 to 150 mm of precipitation occurred. Among them, the weather station of Rheinbach-Todenfeld (North Rhine-Westphalia) recorded data of 158 mm, and Cologne-Stamheim (North Rhine-Westphalia) time It recorded 154 mm, Klein-Altendorf (Rhineland-Palatinate) was 147 mm, and Karl Sistig (North Rhine-Westphalia) was 145 mm. Usually, the monthly precipitation in these areas is basically around 80 mm.
Regarding the cause of the formation of this low-pressure weather system, WMO believes that the weather patterns throughout the northern hemisphere show unusual “planetary wavy patterns” this summer, which has brought unprecedented heat, drought, cold and humidity to various places. . Planetary waves, also known as Rossby waves, are low-frequency long waves. Simply put, they are large-scale disturbances of atmospheric circulation that extend continuously around a complete circle of longitude.
At the same time, climate change has increased the frequency of extreme weather events, and many single events have been shown to be made worse by global warming. WMO said: “As the atmosphere warms, it contains more water, which means more rain during storms, increasing the risk of flooding.”
Environmental issues “assist” the Green Party?
According to the statistics of current German political parties, most German political parties believe that global warming is the chief culprit of this disaster.
This is a bit tricky for the prime minister candidate from the ruling CDU and Governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet. Recently, he has “accidentally overturned” more and more accidents.
The state of North Rhine-Westphalia was severely affected this time, but traditionally, as the governor of North Rhine-Westphalia where some of Germany’s largest companies are located, Laschette has been strongly opposed to parts of the Green Party’s agenda, saying that these policies may endanger Germany’s industrial power.
In an interview last Thursday (15th), when asked by a German TV reporter whether Germany needs to take more active actions to curb the climate crisis, he obviously lost patience and replied emotionally: “Excuse me, little girl. , You will not change your policy just because of a day like today.”
Later, on the 17th, when German President Steinmeier delivered a speech to express his condolences to the victims, the TV camera captured Rachelt, who was standing not far behind him, talking and laughing with people around him, with serious expressions. Steinmeier made a sharp contrast, and then this short film quickly spread and fermented on the Internet, and aroused criticism from public opinion in Germany. A reporter from China Business News saw that many German netizens wrote on social media: “What if someone like Rashet really wins the election?”
In an interview, the Secretary-General of the German Social Democratic Party Klimbair directly called this behavior “inappropriate” and said that “a person’s authenticity will be revealed in times of crisis.”
“The fate of the affected is closely related to us.” Raschelt apologized on social media for this, saying “I regret the image presented through the conversation. This is inappropriate, and I am sorry.”
At the same time, the Green Party, which traditionally has an advantage in climate change issues, has so far been restrained. The German media are speculating whether the Green Party is “holding some big move” in the face of such a political opportunity.
Judging from the political history of Germany, during the election period, the Green Party frequently had precedents of winning due to emergent environmental issues.
For example, after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in Japan in 2011, the Green Party won the local state assembly elections in Germany and won the Baden-Württemberg state (hereinafter referred to as “Battle-Württemberg”) elections in one fell swoop. Reichmann was elected governor of the state of Bavaria, the first governor in the history of the Green Party. He will continue to be re-elected in the state elections in 2021.
At present, the Green Party has seats in all 16 federal state parliaments in Germany, and it forms a coalition government with the CDU in 3 states.
German investment bank lawyer Albert originally supported the Social Democratic Party for many years, but after the last general election in Germany, he was disappointed that the Social Democratic Party cooperated with the CDU and failed to pay more attention to environmental protection issues that young people are concerned about. He told CBN reporters that after the general election, he wrote a long letter to the Social Democratic Party to express his dissatisfaction, and in the next election he felt that he could vote for the Green Party.
Albert analyzed that the Green Party had formed an alliance with the Social Democratic Party for a long time before, and the Social Democratic Party later cooperated with the CDU and abandoned the Green Party. This has led many Social Democratic Party voters who are more supportive of environmental protection issues to feel that it is better to switch to the Green Party. , Such people are not in the minority.
German media also believe that climate change in recent years has affected German domestic politics. In 2018, Germany experienced a long dry period. With the drought, the Green Party’s polls in Germany have also continued to rise. By November 2018, the Green Party’s support rate had risen to 22%. Then in the 2019 European Parliament elections, the Green Party won 20.5% of the vote-this is the party’s best national election result so far.
As of July 16, the politico (European version) dynamic showed that the current polling rate of Merkel’s ruling party, the CDU has rebounded to 29%, the Green Party is 19%, the Social Democratic Party is 16%, and the Liberal Democratic Party is 11%.
Comparing with the data from the 2017 election, it can be found that the support rate of the Green Party polls has risen sharply. In 2017, the CDU poll support rate was 32.9%, the Social Democratic Party was 20%, and the Green Party was 8.9%.
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