Guyana’s Explosive Growth Fueled by Oil Production and Export, IMF Report Predicts

Guyana, the country with the fastest economic growth in the world, is poised for even more significant expansion, according to a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF predicts that Guyana’s economy could grow by more than 100% by 2028, driven primarily by the benefits of its oil production and export sector.

With approximately 800,000 inhabitants, Guyana is projected to grow by 38% by the end of this year, which the IMF describes as an “extremely fast” pace. BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, echoes this sentiment, stating that Guyana will experience explosive growth this year.

BMI’s head of country risk for Latin America, Andrew Trahan, stated that the exact scale of the increase will depend on the speed of additional oil production. BMI expects Guyana’s real GDP to grow by around 115% over the next five years.

The country’s oil production is slated to rise significantly, with estimates suggesting an increase from approximately 390,000 barrels per day this year to over a million by 2027. This growth is expected as a consortium led by ExxonMobil opens new offshore fields in the Stabroek block.

The Stabroek Block, located off Guyana’s Atlantic coast, is a substantial offshore oil field spanning 6.6 million acres. ExxonMobil estimates that it contains about 11 billion barrels of oil.

According to Trahan, Guyana’s rapid expansion of oil production over the past few years has been and will continue to be the driving force behind its robust growth. In 2022, Guyana achieved a staggering GDP growth rate of 62.3%, the highest in the world.

Aside from oil production, growth in Guyana’s non-oil sector has also been fueled by investments in transportation, housing, and an increase in human capital.

Trahan believes that Guyana will maintain its position as the world‘s fastest-growing economy for the next two years, with real GDP projected to increase by approximately 115% between 2022 and 2028.

Overall, Guyana’s economic prospects appear exceptionally promising, driven by its flourishing oil industry and investments in various sectors. As the country continues to tap into its vast oil reserves, it is transforming into an economic powerhouse in South America.