Xinhua News Agency, Moscow/Kiev, May 22 Hot Q&A: What is the impact of Russia-Ukraine “changing hands” important cities?
Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Kai Li Dongxu Chen Chang
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on the 21st that it has taken full control of Artemovsk (known as Bakhmut in Ukraine), an important town in the Donetsk region. The Ukrainian side denied this and said the Ukrainian army was still fighting there.
Analysts pointed out that whether the control of the important town changes hands is of great symbolic significance to Russia and Ukraine, and the fierce competition between the two sides around the place may continue.
What is the current situation?
The Russian side announced on the 21st that the Wagner Organization, a Russian private military entity, has taken full control of Artemovsk with the support of the artillery and aviation units of the Russian Southern Army. Russian President Vladimir Putin immediately congratulated the Russian combat troops and promised that all outstanding individuals will receive national awards.
However, Russia’s statement was denied by Uzbekistan. On the 21st, Ukrainian President Zelensky, who was visiting Japan, was asked by reporters whether the Ukrainian side still controlled Bahmut, saying, “Bahmut is only in our hearts.” The Ukrainian president’s office later clarified that Zelensky meant that the city was destroyed but not completely lost.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Malial said on the 22nd that the Ukrainian army still controls part of the infrastructure in industrial and residential areas in the southwest of Bakhmut. In addition, the battle between Ukraine and Russia for the “commanding heights” on the southern and northern suburban flanks of Bakhmut is still continuing, and Russia is replenishing its forces in this direction.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces posted on social media on the 22nd that in the past day, Ukraine and Russia were still fighting in the west, northwest and southwestern suburbs of Bakhmut, and the outer positions of the Ukrainian army were shelled by Russia.
Analysts on the Ukrainian side pointed out that the battle for Bakhmut has extended to the periphery of the region, where the Ukrainian army has a dense defense system. Only by completely winning the outer “highlands” can it be said that Bakhmut can truly be captured.
Why is it attracting attention?
Bakhmut is located in the northern part of the Donetsk region. It is a transportation hub on the supply line of the Ukrainian army and an important outpost of the Ukrainian army, with high strategic value. Since August 2022, Russia and Ukraine have invested a large number of troops to compete for the place, and the tragic battle has continued for more than nine months.
For Russia, winning this place will open the door for the Russian army to attack Ukraine’s two important strategic locations in the Donbass region-Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. According to Russian experts, winning this time-consuming and fierce offensive and defensive battle marks a major victory for Russia on the battlefield, which can greatly boost morale and popular support.
For Ukraine, defending Bakhmut symbolizes the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian army. In the past few months, the Ukrainian army has invested a large amount of troops here, aiming to consume the Russian army. Some analysts pointed out that Uzbekistan’s delay in counter-offensive was related to its deployment of troops from other fronts to the Bakhmut battlefield. According to the “Washington Post” report, due to the unoptimistic assessment of the war situation, the US intelligence agency recommended that the Ukrainian side withdraw from Bakhmut as early as January this year, but the Ukrainian side still regards it as an important battlefield. With the situation unfavorable to Uzbekistan, the West began to downplay Bahmut’s strategic value.
Malial believes that the Ukrainian side has fully completed the military tasks preset in Bakhmut, including attracting Russian firepower, buying time for other tasks, and eliminating a large number of opponents, which has significantly weakened the offensive potential of the Russian army.
Where is the future going?
Analysts pointed out that the current Ukrainian army urgently needs a victory to boost morale. Recently, Ukraine has won a large amount of military aid from the United States and the West. The United States has stated that it will provide Ukraine with F-16 and other advanced fighter jets and train Ukrainian pilots.
Military experts believe that there are two main options for the Ukrainian side to attack: one is to recapture Bakhmut. Ukrainian military expert Kovalenko believes that the Ukrainian side also controls almost all the commanding heights in the northwest and southwest of Bakhmut. Relying on the terrain advantage, the Ukrainian army can launch an offensive from a condescending height; the second is to launch an attack from other directions. Khodakovsky, the representative of the armed forces in the Donetsk region, believes that Zaporozhye and other places may become targets of the Ukrainian army.
For the Russian side, there are two options in the direction of Artemovsk in the future: one is to continue westward and northward to attack Chasov Yar, Seversk and other places; the other is to clean up Artemov Sk position, to consolidate the existing results. Obukhov, a member of the Russian State Duma and a doctor of political science, believes that the “fall” of Artemovsk has not affected Ukraine’s strategic reserves and new troops. The best choice for the Russian army.
Russian military experts generally believe that the fall of Artemovsk may prompt Ukraine to launch a long-announced counteroffensive. Russian military expert Su Kongjin said that now there is no reason for Uzbekistan to postpone the counteroffensive.
Russia’s “Arguments and Facts” weekly newspaper published an article saying that after the situation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in Artemovsk becomes clear, the intensity of the two sides in other battlefields may intensify. The Russian “Moscow Komsomolets” also reminded that the end of this battle may become a turning point for future wars to become more intense, and the Russian army should be fully prepared for the follow-up “retaliatory counterattack” by the Ukrainian army. (Participating reporter: Peng Peigen)