The pro-Moscow governments in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions held referendums and finally decided to join Russia. Russia’s war on Ukraine is about to start a new journey after President Vladimir Putin swiftly approved the regions to join Russia.
Putin has anticipated this, saying that Moscow will support the decision made in the referendum, while also announcing a partial mobilization order. That is, it will set off a new scene in the most intense conflict facing Russia’s relations with the West. The latter will continue to provide Ukraine with various forms of support. The Russo-Ukrainian war has entered its ninth month and, among other outcomes, has so far changed the geographic reality of Ukraine, which will favor Russian territorial expansion. In addition, Russia’s relationship with the West has become more complex than ever.
Map of Ukraine, Russia (Al Jazeera)
Shuffle
This obviously would not have happened if the Russian army did not launch a very violent attack on the above-mentioned areas. Obviously, this is the prelude to the recurrence of the situation in Crimea.
The previous experience of Crimea’s accession to Russia’s geography, and Russia’s entry into a stage of adapting to the ensuing Western sanctions, are arguably the most prominent factors in paving the way for the incorporation of the four regions into the country. And, at the same time, Russia seems to care little about the consequences of a decision that angers Kyiv and the West.
And we can note that the dynamic development of the process of incorporating new regions into Russia has left the impression that the latter is fully aware that this step will elicit a response from the United States and the West. At this time, the above-mentioned idea has been further confirmed.
In addition, the Baltic gas pipeline accident marks a new phase in Russia’s confrontation with the West, where instability may also increase. For example, increase the possibility of military conflict between the two sides; or at least increase the possibility of inferring the post-war situation in Ukraine.
painful choice
Russian experts believe that “the decision of the Russian Federal Security Council on April 24, 2014, to refuse to send troops to Ukraine to suppress the uprising, has foreshadowed the development of the crisis in Ukraine. At that time, the situation was very unfavorable for Moscow”.
They argue that it is clear that any Russian military action in Ukraine will inevitably lead to the rapid collapse of the latter country in its current form and the defeat of its armed forces. And it will be possible to fundamentally solve the “Ukrainian problem”. At the same time, it would also separate the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine from the country, thereby turning the rest into second-rate states that ultimately cannot threaten Russian interests.
However, Moscow’s tactics have been unsuccessful in evading Western sanctions. And, as expected, sanctions continue. Thus, from the moment Russia abandoned the implementation of “direct measures” in Ukraine, its foreign policy was in crisis. “
But in their view, Russia has regained the initiative, because losing it could cause it to fail. The country also seized the historic moment by holding a referendum in Crimea that ended in a “bloodless” annexation to Russia. This set the stage for an offensive phase of Russian foreign policy.
national level
Moreover, Russian political analysts do not hide this fact. By the end of the 20th century, Russians had become one of the most divided peoples in the world. In their opinion, this has taken on a very tragic form in Ukraine. There, intimidation of Russians has become a pattern of social, administrative and state policy.
Political analyst Alexander Duchak believes that after four regions are annexed to Russia, the country cannot escape the ongoing war in Ukraine unless the best geopolitical outcome is achieved. In addition, Russia will continue to collect power cards, waiting for changes within Ukraine and in Western politics in its favor.
On this basis, Duchak said, the accession of the four regions and the partial mobilization announced by Moscow in the previous days are at the heart of this background. He also said that any “reckless move” by the Ukrainian president on the above-mentioned areas could “overturn” and lead to a repeat of the referendum on annexation of new territories. Then, Russia can further “nibble” on Ukrainian soil.
Duchak explained that Ukrainian public opinion was dismayed by Vladimir Zelensky’s failure to preserve “national unity” and the failure of the West to take “bold” measures to support Kyiv, such as agreeing to its membership in NATO. This further reinforces an internal feeling that Ukraine is nothing more than a tool for reckoning between the two camps, Russia and the West.
Looking back at history, Duchak said that, to a large extent, the Donbas region ensured Russia’s rise in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Because this area is rich in coal, minerals and other resources. It was for this area that the Soviet Red Army entered World War II, and it was one of the areas where Germany was defeated.
Therefore, the addition of these regions, in addition to Zaporozhye and Kherson, will bring great support to Russia’s economy. On the contrary, the Ukrainian economy will be “tough”. And there are serious implications for things related to Kyiv’s economy, geographic unity, military might, and the West’s ability to provide continued support.
“Freestyle”
As for political analyst Yuri Svetov, he believes that the root cause of the current situation is the refusal of the West to give Russia security guarantees. Thus, prior to this, Russia was integrated into a common security structure that served its security and national interests at the lowest level. This prompted it to take a “historic step” represented by the “freestyle” policy. The country wants to achieve this through a “special military operation” and restore its former superpower status.
He also said that the nature of the hostilities in the current situation in Ukraine could change after the emergence of another state (or states) in the new Russian zone. But in any case, after Russia accepts the new territory, in order to prevent the bombing of Donbas civilians, the “special military operation” will enter a new phase. In addition, the operation may also have a counter-terrorism nature, which would leave Russia’s hands more unrestricted than before.
He also said the West’s bet on Russia’s involvement in a protracted war of attrition had been overturned. And the effects of the war had been transferred to the interior of Europe, causing their prices to rise wildly and the destruction of the large industrial establishments of the Old World. In addition, their sanctions against Russia have also led to a halt in gas supplies. He believes that this will lead to social exclusion. And the phenomenon is starting to show up in the results of ongoing elections in some European countries. At the same time, it has led to the rise of the right wing and will demand greater independence in American politics.