When the political leaders of Australia, Britain and the United States announced the formation of the AUKUS trilateral security partnership, the aftermath of this news quickly spread all over the world: from Beijing to Paris, from Taipei to Tokyo, from Jakarta to Singapore, from New Delhi to Tarawa.
Since then, Australia and the United States held an annual ministerial meeting. Australian Prime Minister Morrison personally went to the United States to meet with President Biden and senior Pentagon officials. The leaders of the four countries of the Quad security dialogue mechanism (the Quad) also gathered for the first time in the United States for face-to-face talks.
The “Live Australia” program produced by ABC Chinese Text Week invited four Australian security strategy and international relations experts to analyze the meaning, impact and impact behind the AUKUS trilateral security partnership.
What does it mean to Australia?
ABC News: Adam Kennedy
)Australian Prime Minister Morrison believes that the AUKUS trilateral relationship is the most significant change in the direction of national defense and strategy in decades, a landmark historical moment.
But from a historical perspective, Australia has long been a member of the intelligence organization “Five Eyes Alliance” and the Australia-New Zealand-US Alliance. Experts believe that the AUKUS trilateral relationship is only a continuation of history.
Experts believe that this shows that Canberra may believe that a new partnership is needed to counter the rise of China.
Dr. Chen Jie, associate professor of the Department of Political Science at the University of Western Australia, said that the Five Eyes Alliance is an intelligence-sharing organization. The four-party security dialogue is a relatively loose and multi-topic framework. The new traditional alliance between Australia and the United States is a narrow defense cooperation.
“China is less and less giving Australia much choice between major powers,” he said. China’s trade sanctions against Australia in recent years have pushed the Morrison government to the side of the United States.
Has Australia taken sides?
Dr. Qin Jin, chairman of the Australian pro-democracy organization Front for a Democratic China, agrees with this view. He believes that Australia has clearly stood in the American camp this time, and no longer remains a fencer with a pipa half-faced.
Dr. Huang Luchen of Macquarie University pointed out that Canberra is afraid of Beijing’s attempts to change the post-World War II order in the Indo-Pacific region.
“This also gives a very strong symbolism, that is, the United States returns to Asia and Australia’s status has improved,” said Dr. Huang Luchen. Australia’s military and military capabilities will be greatly improved.
“On the other hand, the United States really trusts Australia and realizes the importance of Australia.”
Dr. Guan Jia, a lecturer in strategy at Deakin University, believes that Canberra’s approach is not surprising.
“All it has to hug the thighs of its allies. For various reasons, Australia believes that it has no independent ability to protect itself and exert this influence. It needs the support of allies to consolidate its position.”
She pointed out that people may have overlooked the influence of the United States on Australia in various fields, such as think tanks, education, media, defense, and economics. She believes that the AUKUS agreement may cause Australia to lose its initiative and even its “sovereignty.”
Previously, former Australian Labour Party Prime Minister Kevin Rud and Paul Keating had similar concerns. Keating even criticized: “For the Anglo world that is fading away from burnout, Australia has turned its back on the 21st century, the Asian century.”
What does it mean to announce hastily?
ADF
)The announcement of the trilateral security partnership did not provide the outside world with too many details worth studying.
Dr. Chen Jie believes that the announcement of the AUKUS trilateral relationship seems to be very hasty, and Australia even needs to appease or dialogue with allies or neighboring countries on the diplomatic level afterwards.
Dr. Zhuo Shaojie, a Chinese scholar at the University of Melbourne, said that there may be a dual reason for this.
He said that on domestic issues, the Australian federal election is approaching, and the Morrison government has done nothing in terms of epidemic prevention and vaccination, and needs to find another topic; on international issues, the South China Sea has become one of Australia’s focus of attention.
Nuclear submarine agreement is still in “discussion stage”
According to this partnership, the United States will share classified nuclear technology to help Australia switch to nuclear-powered submarines. This will also be AUKUS’s first initiative.
Australia’s current submarine series propulsion system has always been a traditional diesel-electric type. The agreement will implement a nuclear-powered propulsion system, but does not involve nuclear weapons.
Dr. Yuan Jindong, an associate professor at the International Security Research Center of the University of Sydney, pointed out that matters related to nuclear-powered submarines will need to be further negotiated in the next one and a half years, and the AUKUS agreement currently has very few details, which may temporarily be in a vacuum.
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Last week, Prime Minister Morrison paid a special visit to the Pentagon during his visit to the United States, hoping to further finalize the specific cooperation items of the AUKUS agreement.
Both Dr. Yuan Jindong and Dr. Chen Jie believe that the current nuclear-powered submarines are only in the discussion stage, and they are far from being completed. With the development of military technology, it is still uncertain whether nuclear submarines will be the best choice.
They believe that the current propaganda significance of the AUKUS alliance is greater than the substantive significance, because there are really no details about the in-depth cooperation.
Will AUKUS change the world pattern?
AP:Tracey Nearmy/ABC News:Matt Roberts
)The agreement reached by the AUKUS trilateral relationship on nuclear submarines also means that Australia will abandon its previous agreement with the French government to carry out a conventional submarine project worth A$90 billion in Adelaide.
The French side responded angrily. Not only did it recall ambassadors from the United States and Australia as never before, but President Macron also urged Europe to be self-reliant and protect itself in the Pacific.
So far, France has no intention of sending its ambassador to Australia back to Canberra, and Prime Minister Morrison has not been able to arrange a phone call with President Macron.
The French side has repeatedly emphasized that the six-month-long trilateral relationship between Australia, Britain and the United States is carried out behind the back of Paris. President Macron said that this is not a behavior between allies.
ABC News: Matt Roberts
)Now the relationship between Australia and France is at a deadlock, and other countries in the Indo-Pacific region have different attitudes towards Australia’s nuclear submarine project.
Dr. Yuan Jindong said that based on previous experience, France will gradually restore relations with Australia and the United States, and some countries in the Indo-Pacific region believe that the trilateral AUKUS relationship will escalate the regional nuclear competition.
When asked whether the new trilateral relationship between Australia, Britain and the United States will cause dissatisfaction among other US allies in the Indo-Pacific region, Associate Professor Yuan Jindong said that differential treatment has always existed and is not new.
“NATO is its country of choice, followed by some non-NATO countries in Asia,[关系]Close allies include Japan and Australia. “
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