Home World How will the war between Russia and Ukraine affect the situation in the Taiwan Strait? Analysis of US experts | Russia-Ukraine situation | Ukraine crisis | CCP

How will the war between Russia and Ukraine affect the situation in the Taiwan Strait? Analysis of US experts | Russia-Ukraine situation | Ukraine crisis | CCP

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How will the war between Russia and Ukraine affect the situation in the Taiwan Strait? Analysis of US experts | Russia-Ukraine situation | Ukraine crisis | CCP

[Epoch Times, February 25, 2022](The Epoch Times reporters Xia Yu, Lin Yan comprehensive report) At the time of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, whether the CCP invaded Taiwan has also become one of the global concerns. Senior U.S. foreign policy experts expressed their views on how the situation in Ukraine affects the situation in the Taiwan Strait. The consensus from all walks of life is that Beijing is closely watching the situation in Ukraine to formulate its strategy against Taiwan.

Although many people believe that the situation in Taiwan and Ukraine is different, it is undeniable that with the escalation of the Ukraine crisis, the world has paid more attention to the situation in the Taiwan Strait.

The CCP has always claimed to seek reunification of Taiwan, and does not rule out the use of force; on the first day of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the CCP dispatched 9 military planes to intrude Taiwan’s Southwest Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) and were expelled by the Air Force of the Republic of China.

But unlike Ukraine, which was once part of the former Soviet Union, it is true that the Chinese Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan, and the island has its own long local history.

The CCP poses a great threat to the liberal world order

The American “Atlantic” monthly website published an article on February 24 by Michael Schuman, a non-resident senior researcher at the “Global China Center” of the Atlantic Council, saying that no country can make such a big contribution to the liberal world order as China (the CCP). threat. In many respects, Russia is a declining power that lacks the economic dynamism to sustain its political onslaught. The attack on Ukraine may have been Putin getting what he wanted while he still could. The situation is different in China (CCP), which is constantly developing its economic, diplomatic and military power. Russia makes headlines today, but China will be at the vanguard of the authoritarian cause.

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Several U.S. media reported that some in China see the conflict in Ukraine as a potential crisis for the U.S. that could weaken U.S. support for Taiwan, while diverting attention from what the U.S. might have used to counter China’s military ambitions in the Pacific. resource.

The United States has grown increasingly confident that Beijing is also assessing the U.S. response to the crisis in Ukraine as a litmus test for how the United States will handle China’s intensified provocative actions against Taiwan.

“If you think that Xi Jinping is not watching the world‘s reaction to Putin, you are very wrong,” Rep. Brian Mast of Florida tweeted on February 23.

Control of Taiwan, or “unification,” as the CCP prefers to call it, is the main goal of China’s foreign policy, Schumann wrote. Under the current international situation, the possibility of war in Taiwan has increased. The Chinese Communist Party has already terrorized the Taipei government by sending military planes to harass Taiwan, and Beijing’s sweeping crackdown on Hong Kong’s pro-democracy movement has undermined any hope that Taiwan would retain its current freedom if it were included in communism.

For Taiwan, the Ukrainian conflict has become a test of the strategic assumption at the heart of Taiwan’s defense: whether U.S. military power will intervene to deter a Chinese invasion.

Former Pentagon strategist: The United States needs a strategy to safeguard peace and stability in Europe and Asia

Matthew Kroenig, a former Pentagon strategist and member of the Vandenberg Coalition Advisory Board, told Fox News Digital that defending against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan comes down to “having a strategy.”

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“What we need is a defense strategy to defend our interests and peace and stability in Europe and Asia,” he said. “China should be a priority because it’s the biggest long-term threat, but the U.S. remains a Global powers, we still have an interest in Europe and the Middle East, we can walk and chew gum.”

Kronig believes the best way to prevent China from taking military action is to increase the U.S. naval presence in the region, strengthen Taiwan’s missile strike capabilities, and encourage allies to do the same.

The former Pentagon official also said that if the U.S. is serious about protecting Taiwan from aggression by Beijing, it needs to pay more attention to nuclear deterrence.

“I think we need to be ready to deal with Russia in Europe and China in Asia at the same time,” he added. “I think if Xi Jinping senses that the (U.S. response to) Ukraine is weak, he might think that This is the green light (for the invasion of Taiwan).”

How will the war between Russia and Ukraine affect the situation in the Taiwan Strait?

Heino Klinck, the former deputy assistant secretary of defense for East Asia during the Trump administration, told Fox News that China has calculated that if they were to take action against Taiwan, they would “pay” “How much. They are now getting more data points on how the West is now responding to what Russia is doing.

He went on to mention the U.S. response in Eastern Europe. “Any sign of weakness … will be taken into account by the Chinese.”

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But Isaac Stone Fish, CEO of Strategy Risks, a risk firm focused on U.S.-China national security issues, told Fox News he disagreed.

Stonefish said China could interpret increased U.S. military involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict as an opportune time to invade Taiwan.

“They (the CCP) will calculate that the U.S. is unlikely to go to war with Russia over Ukraine and China over Taiwan at the same time. The more the U.S. is involved in the Ukraine crisis from a military perspective, the more motivated China (the CCP) is. Take action,” he added.

Lev Nachman, a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard’s Fairbank Research Insistute, told CNN: “The U.S. response to Ukraine and Taiwan will be different because the relationship the U.S. has built over decades with Taiwan is different from its relationship with Taiwan. Responsibilities are different for Ukraine, the EU or NATO.”

“While (Beijing) will still closely monitor the world‘s response to the invasion and potential border redrawing, which could factor into Beijing’s own geopolitical calculations, it is highly unlikely that Beijing will significantly change its attitude towards Ukraine because of Ukraine,” Nanle said. Taiwan strategy.”

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on February 19 that if Western countries failed to deliver on their pledges to support Ukraine’s sovereignty, it would have devastating consequences for the world, including Taiwan.

Responsible editor: Ye Ziwei#

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