Huang Lichen: Gold fluctuates at a low level, beware of boots landing and rising market
In the Asian market on Wednesday, September 21, the trend of international gold fluctuated within a narrow range. The gold price opened at $1,664 in the morning, with a minimum drop of $1,661 and a maximum of $1,676. Currently, it is currently trading around $1,670. As the Fed’s interest rate decision is approaching, the wait-and-see mood in the gold market is gradually heating up, short-term fluctuations tend to fluctuate, and price fluctuations are narrowing.
Last week, the U.S. CPI data unexpectedly rose, and market views began to reach a consensus. It is generally believed that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 75 basis points, pushing the dollar up, approaching a 20-year high, putting greater pressure on gold, but the geopolitical situation is still tense, and Concerns about the European energy crisis and economic recession have attracted bargain-hunting and safe-haven buying to support the price of gold, limiting the further decline of gold. Although the price of gold has rebounded several times since then, it has all encountered resistance near $1,680. pressure.
In terms of news, the geopolitical situation is still tense. It once pushed gold up to $10 in the short-term during the day. In addition, concerns about the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy that may lead to a recession in the U.S. economy also led to a decline in U.S. stocks, hitting a new low in the last two months. Provide support. The head of the European Central Bank said on Tuesday that interest rates may need to be raised to levels that limit economic growth to combat high inflation, the Bank of Canada said on Tuesday that it will continue to do whatever is necessary to bring down inflation, and the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates by at least 75 basis points tonight. , The prospect of interest rate hikes by global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, has put pressure on gold prices.
Regarding the Fed’s interest rate decision in the evening, Huang Lichen said on Monday that before the announcement of the interest rate decision, it is expected that gold will continue to be under pressure. Gold prices rebounded after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points. Judging from the past situation, generally before the Fed raises interest rates, the market tends to short gold. After the interest rate hike, due to the short-term negative interest being exhausted, the short side took the opportunity to close short positions, and gold often rebounded sharply. Last but not least, a surprise 100bps rate hike by the Fed is likely to weigh heavily on gold prices, although the odds are not currently expected by the market.
Technically, at the weekly and monthly levels of the gold, the moving average indicator is dead, the MACD indicator is dead, the KDJ and RSI indicators are dead, and the current is in an obvious bear market, and many parties are weak; at the daily level, gold fluctuates. Falling, short-term low-level fluctuations and consolidation, KDJ and RSI indicators have turned up, showing the need for correction and consolidation, but the moving average indicator is dead, the Bollinger Band is running down, the MACD indicator is dead, and the bearish momentum is still strong. in an advantageous position.
Overall, although the tense geopolitical situation and concerns about the global economic recession have attracted bargain-hunting and safe-haven buying, providing some support for the price of gold, the expectation of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve before the interest rate decision comes. Gold prices are still weak and there is a risk of further declines. In operation, before the price of gold rises above $1680, Huang Lichen believes that the possibility of gold fluctuating and dropping is higher. It is recommended to go short on rallies. The upper pressure should focus on 1680 US dollars, and the lower support should focus on 1653 US dollars and 1644 US dollars.
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