Orbàn’s dream is therefore to give a common home to the ultra-right sovereign, today split into two groups at the Eurochamber: on the one hand there are the Conservatives (Ecr), led by the Poles of the Pis, the party of Jaroslaw Kaczynski to the government in Warsaw, e Giorgia Meloni, on the other hand, Identity and Democracy (Id), the formation of Salvini and Marine Le Pen, which also includes the German far-right Europhobes of the Afd.
Orbàn explained that he had already spoken with Salvini and Meloni, while for days contacts have been underway with the Poles, allies of the Hungarian premier in the Visegrad format, that is the group of leaders of Central-Eastern Europe who have been at the top of European six years presents itself with a common, sovereign agenda, to counter the weight of the Franco-German axis of Merkel and Macron and the demands of the Mediterranean on migrants.
The idea of forming a sovereign group in Strasbourg has been around for some time and has been discussed behind the scenes since before the 2019 European ones. However, it never blossomed for political and power management reasons and because Orbàn waited until the last moment. leave the EPP, until now an insurance policy on his political life that has shielded him from the heavy criticism and clashes caused by the liberticidal policies he conducts in Hungary. Potentially a marriage between Ecr and ID would give birth to the second group in the European Parliament, stronger than the center-left of the Socialists and Democrats behind the EPP alone.
After the divorce from the EPP, Orbàn needs a strong political formation, including government parties just like the Poles and Italians, which protects him in Europe in the face of his action based on illiberal democracy and that he can make his name at home – a benefit of voters – after expulsion from the EPP. Furthermore, if Orban entered directly into the Ecr he would have to submit to the Poles of the Pis, the leading party with greater seniority in the group that was formerly of the English Tories. For this reason the Hungarian tries to shuffle the cards and found a new political force in which he can claim a central role.
So far Kaczynski and Meloni have said no, hinting that they would gladly welcome Orban into their ranks in the Ecr, but saying they are unwilling to dissolve a group, precisely the Conservatives, with a long political history behind it. Salvini for his part flirts with Orbàn to extinguish the dreams of landing at the EPP of the wing of the League Giancarlo Giorgetti and to get out of the isolation in Europe in which the permanence in identity and democracy relegates him. Salvini himself prefers the founding of a new EU party rather than joining the Ecr as the latest arrival, whose president is Giorgia Meloni. In short, a question of power and money, because whoever commands a group in the European Parliament also manages offices and funding for political activities.
Finally, there is the Le Pen and Afd grit. Both the French and the Germans, now allies of Salvini in Id, are considered unpresentable even by Orbàn and Kaczynski. The latter also has the problem of Le Pen’s pro-Russian tendencies, while he would be willing to tolerate those of Salvini. Not only that, the entry into a new formation of Salvini, Le Pen and Orbàn would shift the political weight towards them, to the detriment of the Poles. So the secretary of the League to expand his European alliances should abandon “friend Marine” and the Afd. In short, the game of the European sovereigns is long and the final result is yet to be seen.
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