More than 100,000 Russian soldiers have gathered on the country’s border with Ukraine, raising the looming threat of conflict in Eastern Europe.
The U.S. military said on Monday it had ordered up to 8,500 troops to be placed on high alert to deploy them to Eastern Europe at short notice if NATO activated its rapid response force.
Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken held high-level talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and the U.S. is expected to provide a written response to Russia’s security demands within this week.
Russia has denied planning an attack, but that has done little to ease fears. Other precautions were taken as the British and American embassies evacuated some staff from Ukraine.
In the next series of infographics, we’ll explain how we’ve gotten to where we are now and visualize the latest events happening in the field.
Overview of Russia and Ukraine
Russia and Ukraine are the two largest countries in Europe. Both neighbors are one of the 15 Soviet republics that made up the former Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine became an independent state and distanced itself from Russia.
Russia invaded the country and annexed the Crimean peninsula after months of anti-government protests erupted in Ukraine in March 2014 and led to the ouster of a pro-Kremlin leader. Just a month later, pro-Russian separatists began seizing territory from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of eastern Ukraine. According to Kiev, the ongoing war has killed more than 14,000 people and displaced millions more.
Russia and Ukraine are the two largest countries in Europe. Both neighbors are one of the 15 Soviet republics that made up the former Soviet Union (Al Jazeera)
Timeline from the annexation of Crimea to the present
The chart below shows some of the key events that have occurred since Russia annexed the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine in 2014.
- February 2014: Anti-government protests erupt in Ukraine and spark a counter-revolutionary movement in the Donbas region.
- February-March of the same year: Russia invades and annexes Crimea.
- September of the same year: The Minsk Agreement is signed in Belarus to call for a ceasefire. But the agreement collapsed shortly after it was signed.
- February 2015: New Minsk agreement and OSCE-supervised ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons from both sides.
- June 2017: Ukraine’s parliament passes legislation to reaffirm its intention to join NATO.
- September 2020: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky adopts a security pact, laying the groundwork for a partnership between the country and NATO.
- March 2021: Russia begins deploying military forces in Ukraine’s border areas.
- July of the same year: Putin publishes an article highlighting the historical relationship between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.
- December of the same year: Russia deploys 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border.
- January 2022: Russia, NATO and OSCE hold diplomatic talks. The United States and Russia hold talks in Geneva to defuse tensions in Ukraine. NATO has also deployed military forces.
The Russia-Ukraine crisis: a timeline since the annexation of CrimeaSome key events since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 (Al Jazeera)
Where are the Russian troops deployed?
An estimated 100,000 people are currently stationed on the Ukrainian border, with about 20,000 more stationed near the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
In addition, military exercises between the Russian and Belarusian armies are expected to begin in the next few weeks, which will be part of the “Alliance Resolve” exercise. Russia has sent troops and two sets of S-400 surface-to-air missiles to Belarus.
“The goal of the exercise is to adapt the task of suppressing and repulsing external aggression in defensive operations in order to combat terrorism and protect the interests of the coalition,” Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin told Interfax.
Ukraine-Russia crisis: Where are Russian troops deployed?An estimated 100,000 Russian troops are currently stationed on the Ukrainian border (Al Jazeera)
Possible Intrusion Paths
Diplomatic negotiations have stalled. Western powers fear Russia could invade Ukraine at any time if diplomatic efforts fail to ease the current standoff. According to an analysis released by the Center for Strategic Studies (CSIS), based on the Kremlin’s goals, Russia could launch an invasion through three routes.
Ukraine-Russia crisis: Russia’s possible invasion pathBased on Kremlin targeting, Russia could launch an invasion through 3 routes, according to an analysis published by the Center for Strategic Studies (Al Jazeera)
northern route
Russian troops could advance towards Kiev from the north, and if Belarus were willing to provide its road and rail systems, Russian troops could enter Ukraine from Mazr in Belarus.
Central route
Russia could also send troops from the “Donetsk Republic” to Zaporozhya and Dnipro to expand its borders westward.
Southern route
If Russia wants to secure fresh water supplies to Crimea and block Ukraine’s access to the sea, it may advance towards Kolsen from the south, while its armed forces may advance towards Melitopol and in Assyria The sea coast meets the army. Russia may want to build a land bridge to the Crimean peninsula, which would involve the occupation of the port of Mariupol.
Putin and NATO’s eastward expansion
NATO is the most powerful military alliance in the world today, with a total of 30 member states and a budget of 1.56 billion euros.
NATO — the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — was formed in 1949 with the original goal of containing Soviet expansion.
Russia has opposed NATO’s establishment of military bases near its borders and has demanded written assurances from NATO that it will not expand eastward. One of the Kremlin’s core demands is that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO, which it sees as a red line that cannot be breached.
Ukraine has expressed its willingness to join NATO, and Zelensky also approved a security strategy in September 2020, laying the groundwork for the country’s ambitions to join NATO and forge a partnership with NATO.
NATO: The History and Expansion of NATONATO is the most powerful military alliance in the world today, consisting of 30 member states. Russia opposes NATO’s establishment of military bases near its borders and demands written assurances from NATO that it will not expand eastward (Al Jazeera)
military collision
Russia has one of the strongest militaries in the world. It is one of the five countries with the highest military spending in the world.
In 2020, Russia’s military spending reached $61.7 billion, or 11.4 percent of its government spending. By comparison, Ukraine’s military spending was $5.9 billion, or 8.8 percent of its government spending, according to figures released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Russia has deployed weapons within Ukraine’s strike range, including the Iskander short-range ballistic missile system, rocket-launching systems, battle tanks and more.
Some countries have sent military equipment to Ukraine, including Estonia’s Javelin anti-tank missiles and Latvia and Lithuania’s Stinger anti-aircraft missiles. Kiev is also using Turkish-made “Bayrakhtar” drones for reconnaissance activities.
On Sunday, Ukraine received a second shipment of weapons from the United States as part of a $200 million defense package approved by President Joe Biden in December.
Ukraine-Russia crisis: a military collisionRussia has one of the strongest militaries in the world. It is one of the five countries with the highest military spending in the world (Al Jazeera)