Since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war, the African continent has been moving cautiously along a delicate line that divides a complex balance to maintain an acceptable level of relations with both sides of the conflict in the Ukraine crisis, with the goal of as far as possible to reduce its impact, as the continent faces a formidable challenge to respect the balance of power so as not to take any unconsidered measure that would prejudice its national interests.
African diplomats, researchers and AU officials gathered at a seminar in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. The participants concluded that while Africa had no role in the crisis, it was not immune from the global consequences of the crisis, and participants expressed their concern that the impact of the crisis will have on the African continent. A heavy blow is due to the weaknesses existing in African countries.
Economic impact
African economics researcher Kanti Issutu explained that in the short term, all countries within the African continent will be affected by rising oil prices and the direct impact this has on transportation costs, which in turn affects the prices of other commodities. The biggest danger, he said, is that flatbread prices could rise, especially for the 23 African countries that depend on Russia and Ukraine for wheat imports. In addition, the continuation of the war can affect supply chains and raise import costs, as happened when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. She added that “in countries where politics is closely tied to the price of flatbread, this kind of price increase is very concerning.”
reform the United Nations
In his remarks, William Kanerig, African Union Senior Adviser on Governance and Peacebuilding, stressed that while the war in Ukraine is seen as a crisis, it is also an opportunity to highlight the inefficiencies of the current UN system. Africans should therefore intensify their efforts aimed at reforming the UN Security Council, he also noted that Africa has the right to participate in shaping the future world order and to play its part rightly according to its geographic and political scale.
The African Union had previously proposed a project to reform the UN Security Council, which addressed the equitable nature of the council’s representation, increased membership, working methods, veto issues, and the relationship between the council and the UN.
different positions
The Russian-Ukrainian war crisis has exposed the huge differences in the positions of African countries. The African Union Commission issued a statement at the UN General Assembly condemning Russia’s war on Ukraine, which has not been the case in African countries. Africa also had an impact on the vote on a draft resolution condemning Russia at the UN General Assembly meeting in February – the continent’s 54 countries accounted for 27 percent of the vote.
Twenty-eight African countries voted in favour of the condemnation decision, while 26 others took positions between abstentions, absences and rejections, according to Peter Fabis, a researcher at the Institute for African Security Studies, which revealed a range of African visions and judgments are shaped by interests, ideologies and military ties, whether with the Western bloc or with Russia.
Fabis attributes this divergence to two factors:
First:Some countries want balance and justice, especially since they have economic, political and military ties with Russia and China, and are therefore reluctant to lose this camp.
second:The refusal by some countries is fundamentally related to the content of the resolution, some citing a preference for greater dialogue and reconciliation rather than condemnation, and the lack of transparency in the consultations on the draft resolution.
Russian-African relations
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its subsequent isolation from the international community, Moscow has sought more partners and has turned strongly to Africa, where it has embarked on developing bilateral trade with Africa through security assistance, training, weapons and military technology , and played an important role in supporting many countries, which made it welcomed by many African countries.
Cooperation between Moscow and Africa culminated when the Russian city of Sochi hosted the first Russia-Africa summit in October 2019 and decided to hold it every 3 years to discuss how to strengthen Moscow’s relationship with African countries. partnership between the two countries, and the second summit will be held in St. Petersburg, Russia in October this year.
African Unity
The current president of the African Peace and Security Council, Mata Segana, expressed concern over the lack of a clear vision and the divergent views of African countries on the war in Ukraine, stressing that, as a continent, the continent needs to start finding ways to respond to and deal with the crisis and The best way to make a clear stand on its impact.
Segana also pointed out that each country’s response to the crisis alone would make it vulnerable, and that all African countries must therefore coordinate, unite and collectively respond to the crisis, stressing the need for a response that stems from the continent’s own needs. Africa’s position, not the needs of others, Africa must defend its own interests without taking sides. He also added, “We must engage in discussions between Africa on how to respond to characterize this crisis.”
The destiny of development and peace
Regarding the impact of the crisis on development projects and peace initiatives, especially those funded by external partners, Kenyan representative to the AU Jean Kamao stressed that the war in Ukraine will require increased Western attention and changes in its priorities, so , its political attention and financial resources may be diverted from Africa. Kamau called on African institutions to prepare for the change and to restructure and adjust their affairs in light of the new data.
These concerns are exacerbated by the fact that more than half of the AU’s budget is funded by external partners, such as the European Union and individual Western countries. According to Sergio Briar, an expert on African Union affairs, this requires efforts to improve the African organization’s financial independence, especially since reliance on external partners undermines the African organization’s ability to respond and take decisions effectively, Furthermore, Sergio Briar does not rule out the possibility that the Western camp will push the AU to take a biased position as a condition of continued support and funding in the face of the worsening war.
Sergio Briar stressed that the challenge now is how African governments will maintain their relationship with the parties to the conflict in a changing geopolitical environment, so as not to be pulled into a difficult situation, noting that, As the conflict in Ukraine continues, African countries will need to manage their relationships with those conflicting partners skillfully to safeguard their political, economic and security interests, even if they have to make some tough choices.