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India’s commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2070, where will the huge cost of money come from?Hong Kong and US stocks information | Huashengtong

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Original title: India’s commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2070, where will the huge cost of money come from?

The key to the achievability and operability of India’s emission reduction targets lies in the implementation of the policy. From the perspective of its current economic development stage and energy structure, the road to decarbonization in the future will be a long way to go.

Against the background of frequent global extreme weather and shortages of coal and other energy sources, the severe challenges brought about by climate change have become more prominent.

From October 31 to November 12, the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) of the “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” was held in Glasgow, UK, and the commitments made by countries to respond to the climate crisis became the focus of attention.

On November 1, conference chairperson Alok Sharma said in his opening speech that the COP26 climate negotiation is the “last” and “best” hope for keeping global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius. On the same day, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi put forward five commitments to address climate change at the meeting, namely: achieving net zero emissions by 2070; reducing India’s total carbon emissions by 1 billion tons and 50% of electricity by 2030 From renewable energy, carbon intensity (carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP) is reduced by 45% compared to 2005; non-fossil fuel power generation capacity will be increased from 450 GW set in 2015 to 500 GW in 2030.

Nicholas Stern, director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science, believes that this summit provides an opportunity for India to show that it can make a difference in both economic development and climate change. .

Liu Zongyi, secretary-general of the China-South Asia Cooperation Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, pointed out in an interview with a reporter from 21st Century Business Herald that Modi’s commitment to reduce emissions is due to the pressure of the global response to climate change and needs to be clear about India’s Position and attitude; on the other hand, I hope to take this opportunity to increase the possibility of developed countries to provide financial and technical support to them, and to use external forces to realize the “curve overtaking” of economic development in the process of energy transition.

Will this series of ambitious climate goals become “short promises”? In Liu Zongyi’s view, the key to the achievability and operability of India’s emission reduction targets lies in the implementation of policies. From the perspective of its current economic development stage and energy structure, the road to decarbonization in the future will be a long way to go.

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India’s energy transition has a long way to go

The 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference, which lasted nearly two weeks and attended by more than 120 national leaders, opened on November 1 in Glasgow, Scotland. The meeting continued the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement’s core goal, which is to control global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius to 2 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial level.

According to the latest data from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global carbon dioxide emissions must reach 1.822 billion tons by 2030 to keep the global temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Currently, the world‘s top three carbon emitters are China, the United States, and India. However, if measured by “per capita carbon emissions”, the “contribution” of the United States is close to three times the global average and seven times that of India. India accounts for about 17% of the global population, but its carbon emissions account for about 5% of the total global emissions.

On November 1, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended the opening ceremony of the COP26 climate summit and promised that India will achieve its net zero emissions target by 2070. This is 20 years later than the 2050 promised by the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia and other countries, and 10 years later than the 2060 promised by China, Russia and Saudi Arabia. However, this is the first time India has set a deadline for its contribution to climate change.

Liu Zongyi told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter that it is not easy for India to achieve its emission reduction targets. It is mainly faced with the difficulty of matching supply and demand in the energy transition and the difficulty of being self-sufficient in capital and technology.

First of all, India’s economic development is at the intermediate stage of industrialization, and its demand for energy is on the rise. The current energy structure in India is dominated by coal, with more than half of the production capacity and 70% of electricity coming from coal. The status quo of reliance on coal for production capacity and power generation will not change in the short term, and coal is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions, which increases the difficulty of achieving the goal of reducing carbon emissions.

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Secondly, although Modi tends to encourage the development of hydrogen fuel-based energy generation and expand the proportion of renewable energy at the policy level, India’s power technology is relatively backward, so at this stageSolar energyThe supply of new energies such as wind energy and wind energy is not stable after being connected to the grid. In addition, India’s domestically produced coal is of low quality, insufficient heating efficiency, and backward related infrastructure. Therefore, in the process of energy transition, it may be necessary to deal with the contradiction between supply and demand that is difficult to reconcile.

“In the field of renewable energy such as solar and wind energy, China is at the forefront of the world, and the cost of cooperation is much lower than other countries. However, India is currently adopting a policy of decoupling from the Chinese economy and restricting China’s capital, technology and other resources from entering its market. It is not conducive to India’s goal of energy conservation and emission reduction.” Liu Zongyi said.

RK. Minister of Electricity, New Energy and Renewable Energy Alliance of India In an interview with the media in October, RK. Singh said that the main difficulty in India’s energy transition lies in energy storage and pricing.

In fact, setting a net-zero goal is only the starting point. How to integrate economic development with a low-carbon future is far more complicated than making promises. Some analysts pointed out that from a practical perspective, India not only has to solve the problem of “how to transition from technology to renewable energy”, but also consider the livelihoods of nearly 4 million people directly or indirectly related to coal. “Net zero” will be a problem. Long process.

Who “pays the bill” for climate change?

With the increasing demand for electricity in developing countries, coal use is increasing rather than shrinking. According to data from the US non-profit organization Global Energy Monitoring (GEM), more than 90% of the 195 coal-fired power plants under construction in the world are in Asia. In Asia, coal power generation accounts for twice the global average.

In order to cope with the climate crisis, many countries around the world have successively embarked on the path of green transformation. In terms of the time point for achieving carbon neutrality, more than 100 countries including the United States, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Japan, Argentina, Costa Rica, etc. have pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, and China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, etc. have committed to achieve net zero emissions by 2060. zero emission.

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Achieving the goal of net zero emissions is not “cheap”. Take the United Kingdom as an example. The country’s Climate Change Commission estimates that to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, it will cost tens of billions of pounds a year, but if no action is taken, the environmental costs caused by climate change will be much higher.

The implementation of this goal is inseparable from financial and technical support. The question is, where does the money come from?

On November 1, Indian Prime Minister Modi urged developed countries to provide US$1 trillion in climate financing at the COP26 climate summit, which is 10 times the annual climate financing commitments set by developed countries. At the COP15 climate summit held in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009, developed countries pledged to provide 100 billion U.S. dollars in climate financing each year to help developing countries develop clean energy technologies. However, the promise has not been fulfilled so far.

According to a report called “Climate Finance Delivery Plan” released in late October, developed countries may only fulfill their financing commitments of “100 billion US dollars per year” in 2023, which is nearly three years behind the 2020 deadline. Data from the Financial Standing Committee of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change shows that by 2030, developing countries will need nearly US$6 trillion to fulfill their commitments to address climate change in the Paris Agreement.

The global warming situation is getting worse and the energy transition is imminent. At the COP26 climate summit, US President Biden warned that the world has only a “short window period” to deal with the effects of climate change. Modi said earlier that it is “unfair” to pressure developing countries to take action when climate financing is not making progress. Data from the British climate policy website Carbon Brief shows that India is by far the largest recipient of climate finance.

Liu Zongyi pointed out that at the COP26 climate summit, the scale of climate financing is the focus of the game. “Developed countries do have the obligation to help developing countries complete energy conservation and emission reduction. India wants to obtain more funds and technical assistance in this process, but it is not easy.”

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