Home » International Observation|Change breeds change in the changing situation-International-China Industry Network

International Observation|Change breeds change in the changing situation-International-China Industry Network

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Original Title: International Observation|Change Breeds in Changing Situation

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, January 2 (Reporter Liu Lina) Global events are intertwined, with high winds and turbulent waves, turbulent clouds and treacherous clouds… “Will this world be okay?” Questions continue to challenge thinkers around the world. From individuals, to institutions, to countries, to the interaction between countries, from material reality to ideas, in all fields, people feel that various changes are accelerating.

International Order: Exploring the Risks of Secession and Upheaval

Governance dilemmas, security dilemmas, identity politics, great power competition, military conflicts, epidemic disasters, climate change… all kinds of challenges are superimposed and projected on political relations, the situation is intensifying, the risk of division facing the world is rising, and the international order is exploring a new balance amidst changes .

In some Western countries, public governance has difficulty keeping up with the changes of the times, and “American democracy” is facing institutional decline. In November 2018, the “yellow vest” incident exposed the difficulties of French governance. On May 25, 2020, George Floyd, an African-American man, was violently enforced by a white policeman and died, and then the “Black Lives Matter” movement broke out in the United States. On January 6, 2021, unprecedented riots broke out on Capitol Hill in the United States, further exacerbating the decline of “American democracy”.

In terms of regional relations, problems with multilateral mechanisms have arisen one after another. On January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom officially “Brexit” and ended its 47-year membership of the European Union. The years-long “Brexit” process has shown that British society is severely torn apart, and it has become another evidence of Western democracy’s institutional difficulties and governance crisis, which has a profound impact on the world‘s political and economic structure.

Challenges within countries are also projected into the realm of international relations. In order to maintain its hegemony, the United States has stepped up the game of great powers, which has brought great instability to the world. Five years ago, the Trump administration declared “America First” and kept “withdrawing from the group” to undermine the international order. In 2019, the United States unilaterally announced its withdrawal from the INF Treaty, which challenged the international arms control system. On September 27, 2020, military conflict broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh (Naka) region, making the geopolitical balance in the Caucasus and surrounding areas more fragile. On August 30, 2021, the U.S. military hastily withdrew from Afghanistan. The 20-year war in Afghanistan ended in U.S. failure. With the emergence of various security crises and military conflicts, a return to geopolitical logic can be observed.

On August 31, 2021, Afghan Taliban personnel entered Kabul Airport. The U.S. Central Command announced the day before that the U.S. military has completed its withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the nearly 20-year U.S. military operations in Afghanistan have officially come to an end.Published by Xinhua News Agency (photo by Sevrahman Safi)

On February 24, 2022, Russia, whose strategic space was constantly squeezed by NATO, launched a special military operation against Ukraine, and Europe, the United States and Russia fell into a severe geopolitical conflict. The escalation of the Ukraine crisis has completely changed the relationship between Russia and the West, triggering a major adjustment in the international security landscape.

The United States draws boundaries based on ideology, builds “small courtyards and high walls”, provokes “strategic competition” against China, and declares that it will “decouple” and “break the chain” with China.

The growing deficit in global governance and the increasing risk of division and confrontation in the world have made UN Secretary-General Guterres deeply worried. How to “maintain peace and development in a divided world” has become the theme of discussions by many think tanks around the world in 2022.

Former German Deputy Chancellor and Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer recently posted on the World Press Syndicate website, “We are witnessing an unprecedented convergence of big and small crises.” “Many of these crises are not only signs of decline, but also signs of the new world Signs that order is being born”.

World Economy: Finding a Way Amid Downturn and Inflation

Since 2013, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers has repeatedly stressed that the global economy has entered a “long-term stagnation.” Since 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has made the world economy even more difficult. Low growth, high debt, the Great Recession, high inflation, trade wars, energy wars, financial wars… the global economy is in dire straits.

According to United Nations data, the global economy will shrink by 4.3% in 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic. After a moderate recovery in 2021, by the end of 2022, the world economy will face more severe challenges. The era of great inflation is coming, and some countries will fall into severe recession again.

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In order to get rid of the economic difficulties, the United States and some other countries wield the big stick of protectionism and provoke trade wars against major trading partners.

Over the past few years, international oil prices have fluctuated violently. Analysts believe that behind it is the fierce game of energy powers. In 2022, the crisis in Ukraine will escalate, and the global energy structure will be adjusted again. At the same time, in order to attack Russia, the United States and the West used finance as a weapon to remove the Russian ruble from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system. The arrogance of the US dollar hegemony has once again been fully exposed.

The epidemic has disrupted the global supply chain, and some countries have begun to step up adjustments to the global industrial chain and supply chain layout on the grounds of “economic security”. The process of economic globalization, which has achieved great development after the end of the Cold War, has encountered obstacles, and the trend of anti-globalization has strengthened.

The accumulated policy risks in the early stage eventually lead to an inflation crisis. The International Monetary Fund released a report in October 2022 predicting that the global inflation rate will soar from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2022.

Global poverty worsens. The UN’s “2022 Sustainable Development Goals Report” shows that in 2020, the number of people in the world who will fall into extreme poverty will increase by 93 million. Under the influence of factors such as inflation and geopolitical conflicts, the problem of global poverty and hunger may become more severe in the future.

As the world‘s largest economy, the US’s epidemic and inflation response policies have had a huge spillover impact on the world. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the United States has “released water” on a large scale in terms of monetary policy, and at the same time vigorously stimulated fiscal policy, paving the way for soaring inflation. In 2022, in order to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve Board of the United States will start to raise interest rates in a “quick pace”, which will lead to the return of global dollars to the United States. The currencies of various countries will depreciate severely against the dollar, and many fragile countries will face debt crises.

On December 14, 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to between 4.25% and 4.50%. Since 2022, the Fed has raised interest rates by a total of 425 basis points. The picture shows Federal Reserve Chairman Powell attending a press conference in Washington on the same day.Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Liu Jie

Over the past few years, the world economy has faced numerous challenges, but many progresses and bright spots cannot be ignored.

On July 7, 2019, the special summit of the African Union announced the official launch of the construction of the African Continental Free Trade Area. A large unified market that will eventually cover a population of 1.2 billion is about to emerge. This is an important milestone in the African integration process and has far-reaching significance for Africa’s economic and social development.

On November 15, 2020, the 10 ASEAN countries and China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand formally signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), establishing an autonomous region with the largest participation population, the most diverse membership structure, and the greatest development potential in the world. trade zone.

Over the past few years, China has maintained its status as the largest contributor to world economic growth and has played a key role as a growth engine. In 2020, against the background of the deep recession of the world economy as a whole due to the epidemic, China will be the only major economy to achieve positive growth.

From a long-term perspective, the current is an important stage of deep adjustment of the world economic structure. According to Singaporean scholar Kishore Mahbubani, the era of Western domination of the world is coming to an end. A different era has begun as Asian countries return to their historic place in the global economy.

Technological development: brewing breakthroughs while gaining momentum

At present, human science and technology are brewing new and huge changes, and a new round of industrial revolution is ready to go. However, when, where and in what way technological innovation will lead human society to a new round of prosperity is still unknown.

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In recent years, new scientific and technological achievements have emerged around the world. With the rapid development of virtual reality and mobile Internet, big data, cloud computing, blockchain, and artificial intelligence are coming.

While international public opinion imagines a better new life in the “metaverse”, the rapidly developing virtual world may also facilitate phishing, identity theft and even espionage. How to establish the core security principles of cyberspace so that people can work, shop and play safely is still a new problem to be solved.

Artificial intelligence is another technological “double-edged sword”. According to Liu He, a researcher at the Institute of Comparative Literature and Society at Columbia University, artificial intelligence not only brings unprecedented changes to people’s lives, but also poses multiple severe challenges to human beings’ existing knowledge order and spiritual life.

The world continues its space exploration boom. In April 2019, with international cooperation, humans “saw” a black hole for the first time. China, the United States, the United Arab Emirates and other countries have made breakthroughs in space exploration.

In the field of new energy, photovoltaic technology is in the ascendant, and mankind has stepped into the entrance of the new energy revolution. Some studies believe that once mankind realizes the popularization and utilization of light energy, it will reshape the global economic order and even form a new form of commercial civilization.

At the same time, more and more natural disasters make people feel that the task of dealing with global climate change is more urgent. In November 2022, the twenty-seventh Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) will be held in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. “We are on the highway to ‘climate hell’ with our foot on the gas.” UN Secretary-General Guterres warned the world, “Humanity has a choice: cooperate or perish. It is either climate solidarity Convention, or collective suicide convention.” From the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 to the 2030 deadline for the implementation of the agreement, the time has passed, and the road ahead is still difficult.

On November 20, 2022, the twenty-seventh Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) will close in the coastal city of Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. The picture shows the scene of the closing ceremony.Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Sui Xiankai

Technological progress is constantly redefining the human social structure. Machines can save manpower or make man out of work. Advanced algorithms can bring convenient services, but also put people’s personal information security at risk. How to do a good job of guidance and supervision so that technology is always a force for good will test the governance wisdom of policymakers.

Socio-Cultural: Finding an Anchorage in the Chaos of Anxiety

Since 2020, the new crown epidemic, geopolitical conflicts, food and energy shortages, and extreme weather events have had a catastrophic impact on billions of people around the world.

In September 2022, the United Nations Development Program released the “Human Development Report-Uncertain Times, Uncertain Lives: Shaping Our Future in a Changing World“, pointing out that various uncertainties are accumulating and interacting , shaking the foundations of life like never before. Extensive challenges are causing great uncertainty. In 2020 and 2021, for the first time, the global human development index will experience two consecutive years of regression. More than 90% of countries and regions will experience a decline in the index in 2020 or 2021, and those who have declined for two consecutive years account for More than 40%, which shows that the impact of the current global crisis is still deepening for many countries.

In this context, populism, extreme nationalism, xenophobia, racism… All kinds of discrimination and prejudice have intensified in some countries.

In the US, one sees a “culture war”. The tribalized and fragmented society made American political scientist Francis Fukuyama helplessly lament that policy makers seem powerless to reverse the severely torn society, rebuild warm communities, and make organic social and cultural life the cornerstone of the country.

On November 15, 2022, the global population will reach 8 billion. What does this number mean to human society? The United Nations Development Program argues that without a more radical transformation, the world could face further increases in poverty and inequality.

Years of globalization have made the lives of almost everyone in modern society go beyond locality and become intertwined with distant worlds. The “indigenous culture” marked by geographical boundaries has lost its clear outline. Some embrace “openness,” while others lament “chaos.”

Today’s modern people spend a lot of time immersed in the virtual world. The COVID-19 epidemic has further prompted people to resolve their emotions in cyberspace. Cyber ​​violence and hostility are worrisome, and the interaction between the Internet and reality has made public governance more difficult.

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This is an era of great change. Before, change might just be a part of life. Now, change is life itself. People look for certainty in anxiety and chaos, looking forward to the power of stability.

China’s Response: Steady Forward with Great Goals

“Extremely unusual, extremely extraordinary.” At a symposium for non-Party people held in December 2022, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee, used these eight words to describe the past five years.

At present, the world‘s major changes unseen in a century are accelerating, and global peace and development are facing more uncertain and unstable factors. China has a long-term perspective, has the world in mind, and has firm confidence. It uses the concept of a community with a shared future for mankind to light up the lights and illuminate the way forward for mankind. As a responsible major country, over the past five years, while striving to do a good job in self-construction, China has carried out vigorous and active diplomacy, put forward new ideas and launched new actions in keeping with the times, and its influence in the world has increased day by day.

In terms of mutually beneficial cooperation, the “One Belt, One Road” initiative and global development initiatives are developed simultaneously. In line with the implementation of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, China is promoting high-quality development cooperation around the world. In 2018, the first China International Import Expo opened. “Holding the CIIE as scheduled for five consecutive years has turned China’s big market into a big opportunity for the world, released a positive signal of China’s comprehensive opening up and strengthened international cooperation, and demonstrated China’s responsibility to share market opportunities with the world and promote the recovery of the world economy.” The “World Opening Report 2022″ co-authored by the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the Research Center of the Hongqiao International Economic Forum made this evaluation.

On November 6, 2022, the audience visited the “China’s Ten Years-Opening Up Achievements Exhibition” at the Fifth International Import Expo held in Shanghai.Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Jiansong

Robert Kuhn, chairman of the Kuhn Foundation of the United States, believes that human development requires two major principles: one is stability and the other is growth. Without stability and growth, nothing else is possible. China’s global development initiative and global security initiative focus on safeguarding these two basic principles.

In terms of stable growth, as the world‘s second largest economy, compared with other major countries in the world, China has provided the world with stable policy expectations. Today’s China is not only the biggest contributor to the world‘s economic growth, but also demonstrates its responsibility as a major country in more and more fields of international cooperation, providing the world with more global public goods and contributing to the cause of global development. China has fully implemented the debt service suspension initiative of the G20, and the total amount of debt service is the largest among the G20 members, providing support for relevant developing countries to tide over the difficulties.

In terms of common security, on April 21, 2022, President Xi Jinping first proposed a global security initiative at the opening ceremony of the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference. This initiative aims to bridge the world peace and security deficit and achieve lasting peace and universal security.

In terms of pioneering and innovation, China in the new era will continue to promote technological innovation, conceptual innovation, and system innovation, and explore new paths for global development. More and more developing countries are looking to China for development experience.

The first China-Arab Summit to be held in December 2022 once again let the world see that “equal treatment” and “mutual benefit” are China’s adherence to getting along with the world.

……

Under the background of “turbulent international environment and arduous domestic reform, development and stability tasks”, China’s stability and governance have not come easily. China is proving with new concepts and practical actions that this super-large country is a force for world peace and progress, and a trustworthy and cooperative partner.

Pursuing a great dream is doomed to go through ups and downs.

In this wide open world with intensified changes, in this era of confusion and hope, we still believe that the world will eventually move towards the light.

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