On Wednesday (December 8), international oil prices fell, and the bulls began to adjust after two consecutive days of rising. Investors are waiting for an assessment of the full impact of the Omicron virus variant on the global economy and fuel demand, as well as the effectiveness of existing vaccines. However, emerging uncertainties in the geopolitical situation in Europe and the Middle East limit the decline in oil prices.
At 15:04 Beijing time, NYMEX crude oil futures fell 0.79% to US$71.48/barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures fell 0.60% to US$74.99/barrel.
According to data released overnight by the American Petroleum Institute (API), US crude oil inventories fell last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Investors did not react much to this. The official U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventory report will be announced on Wednesday at 23:30 Beijing time.
Earlier this week, oil prices rebounded from last week’s decline, as people became increasingly optimistic that the new Omicron variant would not cause a major economic shock. But the research leader of a laboratory at the African Institute of Health in South Africa said on Tuesday (December 7) that the Omicron variant can partially circumvent the protection of two doses of Pfizer/BioNTech’s new crown vaccine.
Alex Sigal, a professor at the African Institute of Health, tweeted that the neutralizing effect of the Omicron variant was “significantly reduced” compared to the earlier COVID-19 strain. According to a manuscript published on the website of his laboratory, the laboratory tested the blood of 12 Pfizer/BioNTech vaccinators. The preliminary data in this manuscript has not yet been peer reviewed.
The recent changes in the relative prices of different grades of crude oil have provided oil exporters in the vast Atlantic Basin with the best opportunities for several months to sell to Asia, which has the strongest consumption power. However, concerns about the new crown epidemic have made sales continued. In the downturn, the Omicron virus variant has curbed oil consumption in Asia.
According to airline and airport officials, the new travel restrictions triggered by the Omicron variant of the new crown virus have frustrated the just-started recovery of international flight operations, causing delays and troubles in some areas. A series of new testing regulations and border closures have raised concerns before the important Christmas travel season.
Investors are still not completely optimistic and are currently adopting a wait-and-see attitude. Investors tried to confirm the full impact of the Omicron variant before going further, and the recovery momentum of oil prices was interrupted. The market is also concerned about the Iranian nuclear talks, the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and the winter weather in the northern hemisphere.
A senior aide to the U.S. Congress told the outside world on Tuesday that U.S. officials have told members of Congress that they and Germany have reached an agreement to close the Beixi 2 natural gas pipeline in case of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Germany has made a commitment in this regard.
The White House stated that US President Biden told Russian President Putin on Tuesday that the West was worried that Russia would invade Ukraine and warned that if Moscow provokes a military conflict, it will take “strong economic and other measures” as punishment.
French Foreign Minister Le Drian said that negotiations on resuming the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement are expected to restart on Thursday (December 9). But he added that he was not encouraged and worried that Iran was delaying time.
Le Drian told a French parliamentary committee that the seventh round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and major powers was suspended on Friday, “…This is not very encouraging news. We feel that the Iranians want the talks to continue. The talks The longer it lasts, the more they abandon their promise… and the closer they get to the ability to acquire nuclear weapons.”
The time for Iranian oil to return to the international market is further delayed, and Russia’s natural gas export to Europe may also be blocked. These two uncertain factors may further tighten the global crude oil supply and demand situation and push up oil prices again.