UMM AL FAHM – Three days before the fourth election in two years, with half the population vaccinated, the “R index” down, overcrowded restaurants and beaches, Israelis seem more busy resuming old habits than getting lost in political dissertations. Benjamin Netanyahu – 12 years as prime minister, a pending trial with corruption charges and still 32 seats attributed to him by the polls – he has staked everything on the success of the vaccine operation and on the Abrahamic Agreements.
But the real master stroke was played by the Arab electorate, 21% of the population. “We are all with you, Abu Yair”, reads a mega Likud electoral sign at the entrance of Umm el Fahm, stronghold of the Islamic Movement. Abu Yair, “Yair’s father” – according to the Arab custom of appealing with the name of the eldest son – was born as a joke on social media, and Netanyahu has adopted him in countless appearances in Arab cities, to promote the campaign vaccination next to the electoral one.
“Everyone’s premier”, says one of Likud’s Arabic jingles. A metamorphosis of which cynicism is emphasized: in 2015 the same “Abu Yair” said “The government of the right is in danger, the Arabs flock to the polls”. Still, two Likud seats could come from the Arab electorate on Tuesday, according to the pollster Thabet Abu Rass. “These are unprecedented elections: the Arab vote is courted by all Zionist parties and could be decisive for the new coalition,” he explains.
A scenario that opened with the abandonment of the United Arab List (Lau) by the parliamentarian Mansour Abbas, who has broken a taboo by claiming that he is willing to support the government that will meet his demands the most, on the left as well as on the right. A line that finds more and more consensus and that derives from the “disappointment for the lack of results of the Arab parliamentarians, who have always persisted in reducing themselves to opposition”, he tells us Jamal Alkirnawi, activist for the promotion of employment in Bedouin society. “Our society also wants to be influential. The Israelis are moving to the right and we need to know how to talk to anyone to get facts, not words.”
Thus Netanyahu managed to fragment the Arab vote: the Leu is given down from 15 to 8 seats, while Abbas is positioned just above the threshold with 4 seats, which could be critical for passing any ad personam laws that would protect the premier under process. In exchange, funds for the fight against crime, approval of new urban plans, the scourges that now have the greatest influence on the electoral choices of Arab citizens.
Economic subsidies during Covid (including two hotly contested rounds of helicopter money) have helped to look at “Abu Yair” as an option, as well as the new opportunities now opening up with the Emirates and other Muslim countries with the Abrahamic Agreements. He says Mursi Daughter, which coordinates the forum of Arab tourist guides. “Abbas’s approach is courageous and interesting, but I reserve the right to see what it will bring”, the lawyer tells us. Tawfeeq Jabareen, who will vote for Lau for now. At least until the next round, “which with these rhythms, maybe it will already be in August”.
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