Afghanistan remains at the center of public debate also in Italy after the hectic days of the reconquest of Kabul by the Taliban and the withdrawal of Western troops from the country. Meanwhile, international diplomacy is looking for a strategy to address the humanitarian crisis in the country and respond to the first moves, far from reassuring, of the new Taliban government. But what do the Italians think of the withdrawal from Afghanistan and its implications?
Significant data are offered by a survey on the orientations of Italians in foreign policy conducted by the Political and Social Analysis Laboratory (LAPS) of the University of Siena on behalf of the Italian foreign policy program of the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) and with the support of the Compagnia di San Paolo Foundation. Some of the responses of the interviewees are however illustrative of some general trends in the opinions of Italians on security and defense issues.
The survey was conducted between 2 and 10 September 2021 on a sample of 2,049 people, representative of the adult population resident in Italy. The full survey results will be presented and discussed in the coming weeks.
Italians lukewarm on international military missions
The survey shows that Italian public opinion is divided on the sending of our soldiers abroad: 45% of those interviewed say they are in favor, 45% against. There is also a decrease in support for missions compared to the 2018 IAI-LAPS survey: those in favor went from 49 to 45%. It is likely that the failure of the mission in Afghanistan, and in particular the convulsive scenes in Kabul in the last days of August, have significantly affected this figure.
Support for Italy’s participation in international missions grows considerably (57%) when it is specified that such participation takes place in a multilateral framework (UN, EU or NATO); the favor with which Italians look to multilateral cooperation in the military field is therefore confirmed.
The share of those in favor of increasing the defense budget is growing significantly: from 46% in the 2018 IAI-LAPS survey to 60% today. This figure perhaps reflects a growing concern for international tensions, but it can also be attributed to a more general orientation of the electorate, in the post-pandemic climate, more favorable than in the past towards national institutions, including the Armed Forces.
Afghanistan: yes to withdrawal, but its consequences are concerned
The second trend concerns the humanitarian and migration repercussions of the Afghan crisis and the responses that Italy should give. A sizeable majority of respondents – 59% – believe it was good to withdraw Western troops, including Italian ones, from Afghanistan.
Figure 2 of the report
The figure changes significantly when interviewees are made aware of the possible negative effects of the withdrawal. The share of those who would have preferred Western troops to remain in Afghanistan rises from 41% to 53% when the risk that the country could turn into a refuge for terrorists is feared; it still rises, up to 56%, when mentioning the risks, already evident today, for human rights and women’s freedoms.
On the contrary, the increase in those opposed to withdrawal is more limited, from 41 to 46% when respondents are confronted with the possibility of new migratory flows in Europe. There seems therefore to be greater concern for the humanitarian consequences in Afghanistan than for the impact of migratory flows.
The positions on the issue also vary considerably depending on the party preferences of the interviewees. Democratic Party voters are divided almost in half: 51% would have liked a continuation of the mission in Afghanistan, against 49% in favor of the withdrawal decision. In the 5 Star Movement, on the other hand, those in favor of withdrawal prevail.
In the center-right there is a clear split between, on the one hand, the voters of Forza Italia and the Lega, who share the choice of withdrawing the troops with a large majority (55% and 67% respectively), and, on the other, the electors of Fratelli d’Italia who, with an equally clear majority (58%), would have instead wanted the mission to continue.
Propensity to welcome Afghan refugees
The different political orientations of the interviewees also significantly affect the positions relating to the reception of refugees from Afghanistan, with the traditional differences between left and right (and the more nuanced position of the 5 Star Movement) on the issue.
In general terms, there seems to be a fair propensity for hospitality and solidarity towards those fleeing Afghanistan: a significant 38% are in favor of welcoming all refugees without distinction. Another 33% would like it to be limited only to people who have collaborated with the Armed Forces and Italian institutions present in the country over the past twenty years. 13% is for welcoming only women and children, as requested by the leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, and 18% is for a line of total closure to Afghan refugees.
Figure 3 of the report
The option of openness to all refugees is supported by a large majority of the Democratic Party electorate (59%); while the positions of the voters of the 5 Star Movement (40%) and Forza Italia (37%) are colder. Lastly, the same option is supported only by 15% and 21% of Lega and Fratelli d’Italia voters respectively.
Figure 4 of the report
In conclusion, isolationist or closure temptations have little hold on Italians. There is a more widespread skepticism, than in the past, about military commitments abroad, attributable to the Western debacle in Afghanistan, but there remains broad consensus for operations under international aegis. At the same time, there is a growing support for a strengthening of the military instrument. The withdrawal from Afghanistan is widely shared, but the Italians are far from insensitive to the humanitarian tragedy that is taking place there and hope for extensive measures of solidarity and hospitality towards Afghan refugees.