In absolute terms, the Japanese defense budget is still just over a fifth of that of China and a long way from the US $ 800 billion. However, Japan has the third GDP in the world and if 2% of it were spent on defense, it could over time become one of the major military powers on the planet.
Main form of defense deterrence
Kishida, in office for only eight months, is imposing a new foreign policy doctrine on Japan, based on “realism” rather than pacifist idealism. What does it mean? Realism sees in the balance of power between powers, rather than in law and in international organizations, the factor that determines relations between states. The Russian invasion has given new life to this school of thought, which in fact theorizes the arms race, since it considers deterrence to be the main form of defense.
Outside of academic circles, a recent Asahi Shimbun poll found that 64% of Japanese are in favor of military strengthening the country and only 10% are against it.
The changed perception of US engagement in the region is also pushing for change, especially after the Trump era. Japan remains under the American nuclear umbrella, hosts US bases, but is increasingly convinced that it has to go it alone. As indeed Washington asks all allies to do. Finally, there is the threat posed by North Korea, an atomic power.
Limited intervention margins
The transformation is not easy. To begin with, the resistance of the LDP’s coalition partner, the Buddhist-inspired party Komeito, must be overcome. Furthermore, Japan’s “pacifism” is engraved in the Constitution, drawn up by the US occupation forces after the Second World War.