Kazakhstan riots: spontaneous protests, colour revolutions or political infighting – BBC News

A state of emergency and curfew remain across the country. Nearly 8,000 people have been detained across the country, Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry said on Monday (January 10).

Kazakhstan held an official day of mourning in memory of those killed in the unrest as leaders of the Russian-led military coalition, the CSTO, held security talks.

In Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, hardest hit by the unrest, the mayor of Bakhytzhan Sagintayev told the BBC he did not believe the unrest was spontaneous.

“These gangsters are controlled by terrorists, and at an organizational level, it must have been planned in advance by a criminal group,” he said.

His words matched President Tokayev’s rhetoric. Tokayev said: “The protests were joined by militants who were waiting for an opportunity. The main goal was clear: to disrupt the constitutional order, destroy government institutions and seize power. It was an attempted coup d’état.”

He said the protesters were targeting Almaty, with the ultimate aim to seize the country’s southern region and the capital, Nur-Sultan. He said 16 members of the security forces were killed and the number of civilians killed in the violence was still being verified.

He added that the hunt for “terrorists” continued and Kazakhstan would soon provide evidence to the international community of what happened.

Last week, demonstrations sparked by rising fuel prices turned into the worst unrest in Kazakhstan’s 30-year independence. Local government buildings in several major cities in the country were briefly occupied or burned down. The airport in the largest city, Almaty, was also briefly controlled.

The protests, which began on January 2, initially sparked outrage over the removal of price caps on liquefied petroleum gas by the authorities. Many Kazakhs use this fuel to power their cars. But protests in the west of the country quickly spread across the country and reflected widespread dissatisfaction with the government and former President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

Some analysts attribute the unrest to Kazakhstan’s sluggish economy and wide gap between rich and poor.

“If you look at the major cities in Kazakhstan, you can see a large number of unemployed young people around the cities. This is a potentially radical group,” said Dosym Sapayev, a political analyst in Almaty. Satpayev) told the BBC.

In 2019, when Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, announced his resignation after nearly 30 years in power, there was excitement that change was coming, but he maintained his influence through the chairmanship of the Security Council. His successor, Tokayev, is also seen as a loyal ally.

But some observers believe that public discontent doesn’t explain why the protests have become so violent. The president’s subsequent actions have fueled speculation that it could be a power struggle.

Immediately after the riots, Tokayev dismissed 81-year-old Nazarbayev as chairman of the security committee and took the post himself.

Many also see the recent arrest of Karim Masimov, a former intelligence chief and a close ally of Nazarbayev, as another example of this power struggle. He has been charged with treason and two of his deputies have also been removed.

In addition, Tokayev disbanded Nazarbayev’s hand-picked cabinet and blamed ministers for the unrest.

Sapayev said the competition for power within the elite posed a serious threat to the stability of Kazakhstan. However, he believes that the power struggle does not necessarily take place between the two leaders, but could happen between those who belong to their “inner circle”.

Kazakhstan used to be a Soviet republic that joined the Soviet Union. It became independent in 1991, and Nazarbayev became the ruler of almost every aspect of the country. For 30 years, Kazakhstan has emerged as the Central Asian nation’s leader in economic prosperity and social stability, but critics accuse his family of controlling many of the country’s industries and concentration of power in the hands of a wealthy elite.

Nazarbayev’s eldest daughter, Dariga, was named head of the Kazakh Senate, the country’s second most powerful post, after she was sacked in 2020. His other daughter, Dinara, is one of the richest people in Kazakhstan.

When the early protests erupted, protesters in different parts of Kazakhstan had different demands, said Benjamin Godwin, a British political analyst for Central Asia.

In the western state of Mangystau, for example, people are calling for lower fuel prices and better working conditions, while in other large cities, many demonstrators are calling for reforms to change the constitution. But by January 5, things had changed. Crowds of armed men appeared in the streets.

“By the evening of January 5, there were vehicles and people with automatic weapons. It was clear that some organized groups and looters were operating in the streets. Some people started robbing banks. This is clearly no longer a protest,” Godwin said.

Meanwhile, some countries with close ties to Kazakhstan, including Russia and China, attributed the unrest to a “color revolution.”

Putin told other leaders in a CSTO video conference that he believed those involved in the violence in recent days had been trained in a foreign country, but he gave no evidence.

“There are people involved using well-organized and well-managed armed groups, which President Tokayev has just talked about, including those who have apparently been trained in terrorist camps abroad,” Putin said. “We know that the Kazakh incident is far from the first, nor the last, attempt by outside forces to interfere in the internal affairs of our countries.”

He said CSTO’s intervention “shows that we will not allow anyone to stir up riots, nor will we allow the so-called colour revolutions to take place”.

Moscow has long accused the West of encouraging anti-government uprisings, the so-called “color revolutions”, in its backyard. For Russia, the collapse of governments in former Soviet states such as Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia is a lesson in the past.

Among them, Kyrgyzstan, also in Central Asia, has been the object of contention between Russia, China and the United States since its independence in 1991.

In October 2020, protesters stormed the presidential office and other government buildings in the capital, Bishkek, after opposition parties accused parliamentary elections of fraud. Under pressure, President Sooronbai Jeenbekov, who is well-connected to Russia, announced his resignation, and opposition member Sadyr Japarov was rescued from prison after several months of resignation. After months of turmoil, he took office as president.

After the unrest in Kazakhstan, China also described it as a “color revolution”.

State media reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping sent an oral letter to Tokayev on January 7. Xi Jinping said that China firmly opposes external forces deliberately creating unrest and instigating “color revolutions” in Kazakhstan.

On Monday (January 10), Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi mentioned the term “color revolution” again in a phone call with his Kazakhstani counterpart. He said that China hopes to increase cooperation with Kazakhstan’s law enforcement and security departments, safeguard the security of the political systems and regimes of the two countries, and jointly oppose any interference and infiltration by external forces.

But U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken publicly questioned Kazakhstan’s decision to ask Russia for help last week. “One of the lessons of recent history is that sometimes, once the Russians get in your house, it’s hard to get them out,” he said, when the first Russian-led army of about 2,030 troops had arrived in the country.

This annoyed Russia. The Russian Foreign Ministry retorted: “Once the Americans enter your house, it is not a matter of being robbed or raped, and your life may be at risk.” Moscow officials also assured that their arrival is only temporary.

Whatever the reasons behind the turmoil, one thing seems certain—Nazarbayev’s era is over.