MOSCOW – Could the news from the Ukrainian front shake the Russian leaders? “Not immediately, but they will dilute support for Vladimir Putin and the authorities,” replies 75-year-old sociologist Lev Gudkov. But he warns: “It will depend on the breakdown of censorship, on receiving a more faithful picture of military operations and on the extent of the losses. As well as on the success of the Ukrainian offensive, if it continues”. Gudkov is tired of seeing the veracity of polls in Russia challenged. Especially those of the Levada Tsentr whose independence cost the institute the stigma of “foreign agent”. “As I said once before, to hide your opinion, you should have one. Those who argue that polls do not represent reality, act like the ostrich. They do not want to recognize how serious the problem is”, he comments, leafing through statistics in his study to a few. steps from the Red Square.
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Has anything changed in six months?
“Little. Support for the special military operation is stable at around 74-77%. It reached its peak in March when it reached 81%. Since then, what is called an organized consensus has been born and continues to exist. is based on two pillars: almost total censorship and propaganda. Over 220 media outlets have been closed, including newspapers such as Novaya Gazeta, Ekho Moskvy and Tv Dozhd, more than 3 thousand sites and social networks Facebook and Twitter have been blocked. This has created an information vacuum . Only 7-8% have access to alternative sources of information: young people living in the city able to get around the blocks “.
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As for the propaganda?
“February 24 will have been an unexpected event for international observers and Russian liberal circles, but not for the mass consciousness. The anti-Ukrainian propaganda had already begun in 2004, after the” first Majdan “, the” Orange Revolution “, when Kiev began to advocate EU and NATO membership. Since then, every Ukrainian election has been accompanied by waves of anti-Kiev propaganda. But the leap in quality took place in 2013-2014 “.
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How has propaganda evolved since then?
“In 2013, when the second Majdan began, 75% of Russians were against an intervention against 22% in favor. But in February 2014, after Viktor Yanukovich’s escape, the propaganda drastically changed its tone by relying on three theses. The first: the coup promoted by the US in Kiev and the risks for Russian-speaking Ukrainians The second: the coming to power of the Nazis Adopting the language of the Second World War canceled all empathy towards the Ukrainians because the fight against Nazism is one of the Central moments of Russian identity. And, finally, Russia as a great power. All this provoked a chauvinistic euphoria which, with the annexation of Crimea, raised Putin’s approval. At that moment, however, the so-called “project” Novorossija “, the attempt to annex the Donbass and move to Odessa has failed. But the propaganda has become militarized”.
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What do you mean?
“Restrictions were imposed on the mass media and NGOs and the opposition was suppressed. The aim was to discredit all kinds of different narratives. majority of the population it was the logical final stage of what had been prepared for years “.
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How monolithic is consent?
“It differs considerably on the basis of age. 35-38% of young people are against the operation against 9% of retirees. Support is stronger in small and rural towns where information is obtained thanks to TV”.
Is it unconditional support?
“More than support, it is a lack of resistance. Feeling humorous against the operation would mean entering into conflict with the state. It is not about” fear “, as several liberal political scientists say. or in the other with the state and does not want to lose this link because it has no alternative moral authority since the opposition and the press have been destroyed “.
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Is the fact that the offensive is continuing having repercussions?
“Doubts begin to grow about the official interpretation and the information transmitted by TV, in particular about the authenticity of the news on losses, destruction and crimes committed by the Russian army. The more time passes, the more indifference or indifference grows. habit”.
Cornered, could Putin renounce the hypocrisy of the “special military operation”?
“In talk shows for some time now there has been open talk of” war “, but the objectives and reasons have changed. At the beginning there was talk of denazification, after the liberation of the Donbass, now of a” war “not against Ukraine, but against the West. For the Russians, Ukraine is only an instrument of the West that wants to destroy or, at least, weaken Russia. This also corroborated Putin’s thesis of “preemptive strike” in response to NATO expansion ” .
What impact have the sanctions had?
“At the moment only about 15% feel negative effects, especially the upper middle class of megacities, because the Russian province was already poor. So far, sanctions have promoted the idea of a” besieged fortress “and consolidated society around power. . It must be said that the government has increased salaries, indexed pensions, allocated funds for vulnerable groups. It will be demagoguery, but it works “.
Is there no discontent?
“It is quite high, but rather atomized. The problem is that there are no longer any opposition, no parties, no independent media that can represent this discontent and turn it into political action.”
No symptoms of coup or revolution, not even in light of the failures on the ground?
“We don’t observe it. In six months, salaries have grown by about 10%. Even if the inflation of 20% eats them, people do not notice. They only see that they have more cash in their hands. Then, in addition to the repression, it must be taken into account that various intellectuals and opponents have emigrated. Their voices arriving on Facebook from abroad are no longer taking hold “.
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