Eastern Switzerland ushered in this winter’s first snow map GJ
The last Sunday has made the Yangtze River Delta experience what is called “cliff-style” cooling. At the same time, Glasgow, UK, also ushered in another wave of cooling in the damp and cold, which gave the representatives of all parties who were worried about the issue of climate change to experience a deep chill.
The world is the same as the hot and cold. Multinational meteorological agencies around the world have successively issued La Niña warnings. Whether the northern hemisphere will enter a cold winter again has become a common concern of all parties, especially in the context of widespread anxiety in Europe caused by winter energy supply and the renewed fierce conflict in eastern Ukraine.
Double La Nina Year
Although the cold wave occurs every year, this year is very different.
According to the latest monitoring by the National Climate Center of the China Meteorological Administration, the sea temperature in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has continued to decline since July, and it has entered La Niña in October. It is expected that it will develop into a weak to moderate La Niña phenomenon in winter. It is worth noting that since the La Niña phenomenon just ended in March, this year will also be a “Double La Niña Year”.
According to historical data from the National Climate Center, in the winter when most La Niña phenomena reach their peak, the cold air activities affecting China are more frequent and stronger than normal. The temperature in most parts of the central and eastern regions is more likely to be lower than normal.
The United States, Japan, South Korea and many other countries also issued weather warnings, believing that temperatures in the northern hemisphere from October this year to early next year may be lower than in the same period of previous years, and extreme cold weather may even occur.
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently issued a climate outlook for this winter, stating that the temperature in southeastern Alaska and the Pacific Northwest will be lower than the average of previous years, and the probability of extreme weather such as hurricanes and tornadoes will increase significantly in the next few months. At the same time, the probability of extreme dry weather in California and South America will also increase, which will increase the risk of food and hydropower production reduction.
The latest warning from the Japan Meteorological Agency pointed out that the probability of La Niña in the fall and winter this year is 60%, and the temperature in November in Japan may be lower than normal in previous years. The Korea Meteorological Agency said that the snow at the beginning of this year was about half a month earlier than last year, and the winter is likely to be colder.
Natural gas skyrocketing
Extreme weather phenomena occur frequently and are believed to be closely related to global warming. For many countries in the northern hemisphere, how to survive another possible severe winter is an urgent issue to deal with. However, compared to the Asia-Pacific countries that are actively responding, Europe, which is also facing the test, appears to be a bit cumbersome and sluggish. The prices of fossil energy such as natural gas, oil and coal have been soaring, while many European countries have fallen to historical lows while their natural gas inventories have not Forget about talking to Russia.
The spot price of Asian LNG has hit a record high in early October, more than five times that of the same period last year. Entering November, due to the massive export of natural gas, the price of natural gas in the United States has reached its highest point in many years. In Europe, the price of natural gas has soared more than 14 times in about a year, pushing up electricity prices. According to German media reports, if estimated on the basis of energy prices in August, the energy expenditure (including heating, electricity and gasoline) of an average German household this year is estimated to reach 4,063 Euros, an increase of 19% over last year.
Compared to other regions, Europe is extremely sensitive to changes in natural gas prices. On the one hand, under the abandonment of nuclear power and the pursuit of clean energy, the proportion of traditional major energy sources such as nuclear power and coal in Europe has declined, and relatively clean natural gas has become the main energy source in countries such as Germany; on the other hand, countries have successively pledged to achieve Carbon peaks and carbon neutrality have increased the demand for natural gas in order to control carbon emissions. Coupled with the gradual recovery of the global economy from the epidemic, the supply of natural gas is in short supply and prices have skyrocketed.
Game of America, Russia and Europe
However, despite multiple factors that have led to Europe’s deep energy crisis, Western public opinion has targeted Russia, Europe’s main natural gas supplier. As a commonplace topic, natural gas and its transportation pipelines are portrayed as a trump card for Russian President Vladimir Putin to coerce and manipulate Europe. The implication is undoubtedly that Russia should bear the main responsibility for Europe’s current predicament, and US natural gas has become Europe’s life-saving. straw.
In fact, many professional analysis organizations in Europe and the United States pointed out that the soaring natural gas price is determined by multiple economic fundamentals, which is far beyond the control of a single country. Putin has issued instructions at the end of October to gradually increase the supply of natural gas to Europe from November 8.
Quite subtlely, when the Russian-European relations seem to be easing, the smoke of gunpowder in eastern Ukraine has risen again. Ukraine recently confirmed the use of drones to launch attacks against pro-Russian armed forces in the east, causing serious dissatisfaction with Russia. The US Secretary of Defense Austin just visited Ukraine in October to encourage Ukraine to join NATO. After that, U.S. warships and planes entered the Black Sea many times, creating tensions.
Although the Russian-European “Beixi”-2 natural gas pipeline has been completed, it will take several months before it can be put into operation. With its geographical advantages, Ukraine still has a considerable say in Russia’s gas supply to Europe.
The game between the United States, Russia and Europe around the energy issue will obviously not be over in a short period of time, but it is certain that rising energy prices will not only make the test of this severe winter particularly difficult, but will also drag down the recovery of the global economy and the overall social consumption capacity. In the end, the bitter fruit can only be borne by the people of all countries.
Our reporter Yang YifanReturn to Sohu to see more
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