PARIS – It is her third Elysée race, and she has never been closer to victory. Even if now the hardest part begins, Marine Le Pen faces the campaign for the ballot with a base of 24.2% of the votes, more than 4 points behind Emmanuel Macron according to the first exit polls.
Fifty years old, divorced with three children, since 2011 at the helm of the former Front National, today Rassemblement National, she managed to intercept the priority of the French in the campaign (the defense of purchasing power) and to sweeten her reputation as a leader of extreme right.
The National Marine
“She softened her image and established herself as the leader closest to the people,” notes political scientist Jérôme Jaffré. “She moves among the French like a fish in water,” he sums up.
While the head of state was busy managing the Ukrainian war in the Elysée, the leader of the Rassemblement National toured France. In her speeches she was greeted by the militants with kisses and requests for selfies. “She has become a nice and familiar character,” observes Jaffré.
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The whole of France now calls her only “Marine”, with no more surname. “And no one asks her how she will implement her measures without costing billions, or fears that if her policies are implemented, we will end up being kicked out of Europe, or that she will destroy the European Union.”
The many defeats – even the catastrophic TV duel with Macron in 2017 – made her seem more human. And so were the blows she received in the family. Before her, her quarrels with her father Jean-Marie about her denial provocations. “It was tough, but I forgave him,” she said.
She was moved on live TV because her niece Marion Maréchal had decided to support Eric Zemmour. Her passion for cats – she graduated as a breeder – flaunted in magazines helped soften her image of her.
The match won against Zemmour
“In October they gave us for dead, one of the many funerals they celebrated in advance,” recalls Sébastien Chenu, spokesperson for the candidate. At the time, Eric Zemmour had risen up to 17%, surpassing the leader of the Rassemblement National. And instead, leaving the new rival agitated between provocations and controversies, Le Pen quickly normalized. “In the presence of her, we seem reasonable, serious, more ready to govern” she commented already in the fall.
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Since December the curves have begun to reverse: Le Pen has risen, and Zemmour has begun to descend. The war in Ukraine dealt the fatal blow to the columnist: not only because of his ties with Putin, but because he immediately closed the doors to Ukrainian refugees, while Le Pen – sensing a different attitude of the French in the face of the upcoming crisis – was lined up for the reception.
The Chirac model
Frédéric Dabi argues that Le Pen has “chiracized”, now has a popular profile close to that of Jacques Chirac. The former right-wing president had won the 1995 campaign with a campaign among the people, boasting his love for apples, simple and healthy fruit. “We made an undercover campaign, among the real problems, very similar to that of Chirac,” confirms spokesman Chénu.
Le Pen has avoided talking in the countryside about the most controversial issues of his program, from the referendum on Immigration to change the Constitution, giving priority to the French for some services and subsidies, to the abolition of the ius soli, to the 5 billion cut of the contribution of France to the EU. Even if he no longer proposes Frexit, he avoids dwelling on his proposal for the supremacy of national law over European law, drawing inspiration from Poland.
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“In the eyes of a part of the French it appears less dangerous, less extreme and willing to really change things. They are three important scorers ”notes Brice Teinturier, director of the Ipsos institute. In an orphaned landscape of ideologies, the leader of the far right proposes a strong political identity. “For better or for worse – comments Teinturier – we understand her vision and the type of society she proposes, with the return to strong authority, the refusal of immigration, social protection for the weakest”.