Investment opportunities related to restoration of consumption scenarios after the epidemic:
[International Finance Consumption Union]After the epidemic, consumers suggest paying attention to several main lines:
⚡️1) Service and offline consumption will be the first to rebound from the bottom, and consumption in hotels, duty-free, business districts, offline stores, etc. is expected to rebound at the bottom; at the same time, the recovery of travel will drive the demand for beauty, luggage, sports shoes and clothing to rebound.
⚡️2) Catering is expected to gain the revenge consumption of catering and beer brought about by the restoration of retaliatory consumption scenarios, and release the demand for liquor (high-end/sub-high-end).[Beer]The peak season is imminent, and the demand rebound is expected to be stronger;[Liquor]high-end demand is rigid, the proportion of sub-high-end banquets is higher, and the real estate wine area in Jiangsu and Anhui is slightly affected by the spillover of the epidemic, all of which will benefit from the restoration of the scene and the control of the epidemic.
⚡️3) Home appliances (refrigerators, freezers, small kitchen appliances), household appliances, home textiles, etc. affected by logistics during the epidemic may increase in a concentrated release in the second quarter with the smooth flow of logistics.
⚡️4) The gold and jewelry epidemic has a big drag on its short-term retail sales, but the recovery after the epidemic is very certain.
Recommended targets: Jiumaojiu/Haidilao/Hailunsi, Jinjiang/Huazhu/BTG, Chow Tai Fook/ Chao Acer/ Chow Da Sang, Haier/ Midea/ Xin Bao/ Jiu Yang, China Resources/ Tsingtao Beer/ Heavy Beer, etc.
【Transportation by Zheng Shuming】
⚡️1) As of April 11, the throughput index of national public logistics parks was -38% (+6pct), and the throughput index of distribution centers of major express companies was -38% (+6pct), and the decline rate has narrowed. According to the feedback from express delivery companies, the decline in express delivery business volume has improved to more than 20%, and the trend is recovering. In response to the multi-layered and one-size-fits-all traffic control measures for freight vehicles in some areas, the national ministries and commissions have issued relevant policies. We believe that the logistics obstruction will be alleviated.
⚡️2) At present, due to the interruption of express delivery and the delay of e-commerce delivery, the business volume of express delivery business in April is expected to decline year-on-year. We believe that the demand for e-commerce consumption is still there. After the epidemic is expected to be brought under control, June will enter the traditional peak season, the suppressed consumer demand is expected to be released, and the growth rate of express delivery business is expected to increase by more than 30%. The inflection point can be seen from the new asymptomatic infections and the proportion of confirmed cases in Shanghai, and the market is expected to rise first. , then the express price will pick up.
It is recommended to focus on: Yunda Co., Ltd., YTO Express, SF Holding.
Epidemic reversal data node:
【Medical Yuan Wei】
⚡️1) After the outbreak of the Omicron virus strain in January 2022, the overseas epidemic situation is currently in a plateau, and the epidemic situation is generally stable. Considering the adjustment of overseas epidemic prevention measures, the future overseas epidemic situation will largely depend on In the future, the mutation of the new crown vaccine.
⚡️2) At present, the epidemic situation in some parts of China, such as Shanghai and Jilin, is still running at a high level. For the prediction of the inflection point, you can refer to the research and judgment of scientific research institutions such as Lanzhou University. In general, according to various opinions, it is still necessary to observe whether the subsequent new cases will continue to decline in the next few days. In addition, the change in the number of confirmed cases/asymptomatic infections found outside of isolation and control is also an important reference indicator.
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