As the first anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict approached on Friday, fighting was at its most intense in eastern Ukraine.
Authorities in Kiev – including President Volodymyr Zelenskiy – have warned that a new Russian offensive is underway, and Ukrainian government forces are expected to plan a counterattack in the spring, aided by new supplies of Western weapons.
Over the next six months, the nature of the conflict will change significantly.
Both sides will be trying to capture large swaths of territory, and any attack will come at a high human cost on one side.
It remains to be seen whether Ukraine will carry its new weapons in a way that can make a difference, and whether Kiev’s forces can cross the Dnieper in the south and attack Russia’s network of defensive lines in key areas crucial to the war.
Russia must also be seen as winning, especially with so many lives lost on the battlefield.
While its military is adapting, it is doubtful it will be able to change enough and adopt new ways of fighting before its military is destroyed.
There is a sense of a drain of experienced Russian troops, now understood to be an attempt to rearm an increasingly civic conscript army that may be more numerous but less capable.
What is happening now?
Moscow is struggling to retake Ukrainian towns in the eastern Donbas region despite an influx of tens of thousands of New Russian conscripts, backed by airborne and naval infantry units brought in from bases near the Pacific Ocean.
Donetsk’s Bachmut remains the focus for Russia.
For several months, the Russian high command has heavily used Wagner Group mercenaries in the city, mainly criminals serving in the Freedom Fight in Ukraine.
Crowd attacks rarely worked in World War I, and proved disastrous.
Russian prisoners refused to volunteer for such sweeping devastation, prison recruitment programs were shut down, and Wagner Group troops were withdrawn from the front.
Further south, the Russian offensive to capture Vuhledar met equally fierce resistance.
Russian armor was wiped out by a combination of Ukrainian artillery, clever mine placement, and direct fire, one pass after another.
Major Battles Across Ukraine
Since February 24, 2022, Russia has launched multiple offensives inside Ukraine, capturing key cities and strategic ports, and in response, Ukraine has launched multiple counteroffensives to regain lost ground (Al Jazeera)
How does weather change affect warfare?
Most of the Russian attacks took place when the ground was hard and the temperature was sub-zero.
Within a month, though, that will change.
Prolonged rains can turn previously easily traversed fields into muddy mires, slowing movement.
This wouldn’t stop the Russians from attacking, but it would force the armor and infantry to stay on the road if they wanted to move fast, making them easier to target and destroy.
Wet weather would also hamper any plans for Ukraine to launch an offensive in the spring.
Russian troops have been carefully reinforced in the south, and Ukrainian forces will have to move quickly across open spaces in the area to avoid damage in the open.
Mires and rain can hinder these efforts.
Where are the tanks promised by the West?
It will take time for the West to deliver the newly promised supply of tanks, which will have an impact on the outcome of the war.
Ukrainian aircrews will need to be trained to take advantage of higher quality optics and software that give tanks like the Leopard 2, Challenger 2 and Abrams an edge in combat.
Ukraine is increasingly adopting Western digitized mechanized logistics and warehousing.
Ukraine’s need to increase foreign weapons systems means keeping them operational as effective military tools is as important as training tank crews.
While capable of being powerful weapons, if tanks lack fuel, spare parts, or ammunition, they become nearly useless and easily destroyed on the battlefield.
What is the danger of a long war?
As if the conflict would not end any time soon, both Ukraine and Russia insisted on victory conditions that the other could not accept.
Russia will not retreat unless forced to, Ukraine is reluctant to cede territory it has lost in the conflict, and both sides have said the other has no chance of owning Crimea.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it clear that the war will continue until Ukraine regains every inch of land.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is also aware that Crimea offers Russia its only permanent warm-water port, where the powerful Black Sea Fleet is based in Sevastopol.
With compromise unlikely, other factors will come into play.
The chances of Western donor fatigue will rise as NATO members grapple with rising energy costs, defense budget increases and aid to allies such as Turkey in response to its devastating earthquake.
A steady and growing supply of high-tech weapons, ammunition, training centers and, in the long run, Western tanks and possibly fighter jets, will be crucial if Ukraine is to win.
It will cost billions of dollars, and NATO’s financial resources, while deep, are not unlimited.
As the conflict drags on, the Russian military will begin to adapt and learn from its many mistakes.
Does Russia have an advantage?
Russia has a long history of military failures, including incompetent leadership, poor training and poor equipment.
In 1939, the Soviet invasion of Finland ended in less than four months, followed by disastrous fighting as Germany invaded the Soviet Union.
The Chechen wars started out as disasters for Russia, but in each war, Moscow accepted losses, learned from its mistakes, and fought harder—eventually triumphing over its opponents.
Russia now has a stronger industrial base and a higher number of conscripts than Ukraine.
Its economy is not yet at war, although steps have been taken to increase arms production.
Russia can more easily make up for lost manpower than Ukraine, which has a smaller population.
Tactics are also changing.
In early February, a kamikaze unmanned surface vehicle of unknown design and unknown affiliation attacked a bridge in Ukraine.
This belongs to Russia, indicating that Moscow has manufactured and deployed weapons that have only been used in Ukraine.
Fast boats now accompany and protect Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea, making sure they themselves are not targeted by drones.
Taking advantage of recruits best suited for defensive operations, the Russian army built a large and intricate network of trenches and fortifications in the south.
The flat, featureless terrain provided little cover for the attacking troops, and the Ukrainian forces first had to cross the Dnieper in numbers in order to have an impact on the attack.
Russia plans to fight for every inch of Ukraine, and so does Ukraine.
In a protracted war of attrition, Russia would likely have the manpower advantage, as it could substantially increase the size of its armed forces.
Russia’s industrial base was intact and well-funded, while Ukraine lost vital sources of coal, steel, and other war-critical supplies.
The continued damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has not only made life miserable for Ukrainians, but the country has become increasingly reliant on foreign imports and goodwill as industry falters, factories cannot be powered and steel cannot be smelted.