[Epoch Times, August 7, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Lin Cenxin interviewed and reported) From August 4th to 7th, the CCP launched military exercises and live ammunition around Taiwan, attracting attention from the outside world. The reporter interviewed senior military critic Qi Leyi on the 7th to analyze the political and military implications of the CCP’s military exercises, as well as Taiwan’s role in the two camps of democracy and autocracy.
The one-China principle behind the CCP’s military exercises faces challenges
The CCP’s military claims to use this military exercise to demonstrate its deterrent power. Qi Leyi believes that the so-called deterrence should be deterrence before the event, not after the event. To appease the incited and high national sentiment in the country, it is more worried about the effect of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.
The CCP has designated 6 training areas around Taiwan. All 6 areas are located in the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone. One of them is within the territorial waters off the coast of Kaohsiung, less than 20 kilometers from the land. It will place its firepower in these areas. , Qi Leyi said that the CCP intends to declare that the Taiwan Strait is not an international waters, does not recognize Taiwan’s sovereignty, and has no claim to the middle line of the strait, but more importantly, this military exercise revealed the CCP’s concerns.
“It is worried that the relationship between Taiwan and the United States will heat up, and that there will be subsequent visits to Taiwan by US dignitaries higher than Pelosi, or that speakers of other European countries may also visit Taiwan. Unseen challenges, which are extremely serious.”
The CCP’s intention to attack Taiwan is obvious, the United States, Japan and Taiwan search for intelligence
At the military level, Qi Leyi believes that the CCP’s military exercise is not a show or performance, but a verification of its combat-level joint combat capability in the theater. , and the joint logistics support force, all of which are relatively small numbers of elites, and almost all of their new weapons and equipment are out, this is not a performance, it is a drill.”
“Especially in the missile part, as well as the army’s long-range rocket launchers, they are all fired for hundreds of kilometers, and the training locations include eastern Taiwan and the Bashi Strait, taking into account the possible future intervention of the United States and Japan to aid Taiwan.”
“This matter has become more and more clear. When necessary, the CCP will really use force to attack Taiwan. Whether it is successful or not is another matter, but its intention to use force is very strong.” Qi Leyi said, as for Taiwan, it has been doing Complete intelligence search and analysis, not only Taiwan is collecting intelligence information, but Japan and the United States are also collecting it.
He suggested that after this military exercise, Taiwan, Japan, and the United States should first attach importance to the exchange and sharing of intelligence and information.
If there is something in Taiwan, if there is something in Japan, it means that there is something in the Japan-US alliance.
One of the CCP’s training areas is designated in Japan’s exclusive economic zone, and five missiles landed in Japan’s economic zone. Qi Leyi said, this proves what former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, “If there is something in Taiwan, it is equivalent to something in Japan. It is equivalent to the Japan-US alliance.” Because the islands of Taiwan and Japan are close, and the air defense identification zone is connected, I believe that after this military exercise, the three sides of the United States, Japan and Taiwan may take this opportunity to launch some specific and targeted cooperation on security issues .
He believes that this time the CCP’s military exercise against Taiwan has reduced the scope of the exercise to Taiwan’s territorial waters, compressed the depth of Taiwan’s defense, and frequently crossed the middle line of the Strait, which will pose a lot of pressure on the future defense operations of Taiwan, Penghu, Jinma, and horses. Commitments and concerns about security across the Taiwan Strait should enter a substantive stage. Just like the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukraine’s ability to survive until now is directly related to the training assistance provided by NATO and the United States to Ukraine after the Ukraine crisis occurred in 2014.
“Taiwan is not as good as Ukraine, which has land to transport supplies. How to respond poses a new challenge to the commitment of the United States. The United States, Japan and Taiwan really want to take this opportunity to launch some more specific and targeted security measures. Collaboration and cooperation.” Qi Leyi said.
The two camps of democracy and authoritarianism confront Taiwan at the forefront
After Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, the British Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee also reported that it will visit Taiwan in November, and the German Parliamentary Human Rights Committee is expected to send a delegation to Taiwan at the end of October. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, chairman of the German parliamentary defense committee, said that the CCP’s show of power is really unnecessary and only reflects its insecurity.
“Actually, from Wang Yi’s talk in the past few days, it reflects that Beijing is really anxious.” Qi Leyi believes that these countries’ expressions of support for Taiwan and their successive visits to Taiwan come not only from the geographical significance, but also from the democratic significance. . After the Russian-Ukrainian War, the world has become more and more obvious in the struggle between the two camps of democracy and autocracy, and the Taiwan Strait crisis has intensified this trend.
He said that for a long time, the momentum of world democracy has declined, and the arrogance of autocracy has risen. After the Russian-Ukrainian war, democratic countries were alerted to the imminent war, and they were alert. , will bring democracies more united.
In March of this year, Wang Yi criticized the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy and said that the U.S. had a “May 4, 32” formation in the Asia-Pacific region. Qi Leyi said that Wang Yi was referring to the Five Eyes Alliance, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, and the U.S.-UK-Australia Trilateral Security Partnership. Mechanism, US-Japan military alliance, “Wang Yi only dares to say that these are strategic containment and containment of China (community), but in fact these maritime coordination and alliances are behind democratic alliances, and democracy against autocracy is the whole The essence of the matter. And Taiwan is a democracy at the forefront, which means a lot.”
Responsible editor: Gao Jing#