Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, which have equipped themselves with enormous refineries, are rather increasing the production of fuels and exporting them in record quantities to Europe, already engaged in the search for alternative suppliers, especially for diesel: Moscow almost satisfied 40% of our consumption.
The general secretary of OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo, raised the white flag: «It is clear that Russia’s exports, over 7 million barrels a day of crude oil and other liquids, cannot be recovered high. The reserve capacity simply does not exist, ”he said, addressing the technical committee for the preparation of today’s OPEC + summit.
The Russian-Saudi-led committee itself has put on the table forecasts that today seem surreal, barring a severe global recession: in 2022 there should be an excess supply of 1.9 million barrels per day on the oil market.
Yet even the Russian government a few days ago admitted that it expects a drop in production of 17%, the lowest since 2003: between 8.7 and 9.5 million barrels per day. And OPEC has been struggling for months to extract in line with production quotas: in March (the last month for which official data are available) it extracted 1.5 mbg less than the agreements and the situation is worsening.
According to the OPEC + agreements, last month the organization should have produced 274 thousand bg more, but in reality it added just 10 thousand bg to the market according to Bloomberg. Libya, exempt from quotas, has seen production drop from 1.3 million barrels per day to just 800 thousand since mid-April due to new clashes and protests in the country.