Original title:[SMM analysis]Multi-factor superposition of new energy vehicles “core panic” continues
Since Q1 2021, Due to insufficient supply of automotive chips and other reasons,A large number of auto companies temporarily suspend or reduce production,Automobile industryIt has been greatly impacted, involving many car companies and brands, including:
public: Volkswagen’s Emden plant reduced its working hours on January 18-29, and its Wolfsburg plant was closed on January 4-18 to reduce its working hours; SEAT’s Matorel plant in Spain reduced its production by 18,000 vehicles;
Nissan: Nissan’s Opama plant in Kanagawa Prefecture reduced its January output from 15,000 to 5,000;
Wei Lai：Wei LaiHefei JianghuaiWei LaiThe manufacturing plant will stop production from March 29th to April 2nd;
Toyota: Toyota’s San Antonio, Texas plant cut 40% production in January, and the four plants in Sao Paulo, Brazil ceased production from March 29 to April 5;
Honda: Honda’s Suzuki plant in Japan’s three prefectures reduced production by about 4,000 vehicles, and the Swindon plant in the UK suspended production on January 18-21;
Audi: Audi’s Neckarsum and Ingolstadt plants in Germany reduced working hours on January 18-29, and the San Jose Chiapa plant in Mexico re-arranged production time.
Why is there insufficient supply of automotive chips? We can analyze this point from two parts: the supply and demand side and the demand side.
Demand side: prediction errors of car companies + heavy consumption of consumer electronics + increase in unit consumption of new energy vehicles
1.Auto companies cut orders on the upstream supply chain due to the epidemic，The downstream recovery exceeded expectations.
Car companies made a mistake in their predictions.The outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020 has hit car sales. April 2020 is the lowest point, with sales of only 3.97 million vehicles. Therefore, car companies generally predict that the overall car sales in 2020 will be poor, and they have cut orders on the upstream supply chain. However, due to the effective control of the epidemic in China and other countries, global passenger vehicle sales in 2020 were 66.75 million, which actually only dropped by 14%. Among them, new energy vehicles increased without falling, with a year-on-year increase of 39%.whenAutomobile industryWhen the order is cut, the production capacity is allocated to consumer electronics products such as mobile phones, laptops and tablets. When automakers find that sales pick up in 2020Q3, and then increase production capacity, according to the semiconductor factory production cycle, it usually takes 4-6 months to recover. As of May 2021, the chip delivery cycle is as long as one year. Production capacity allocation is difficult to achieve in the short term, so it is difficult to obtain timely supply of automotive chips in the short term.
2。Consumer electronics seize production capacity
epidemicAfter the outbreak, remote office, online education, etc.promoteConsumer electronicsDemand broke out.In 2020, global notebook computer shipments reached 201 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22.5%; global tablet computer shipments were 164 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.6%. The growth rate is the highest in recent years. In addition, mobile phone manufacturers stock up a lot. In 2020, Huawei encountered US sanctions. On the one hand, other mobile phone manufacturers were worried about the shortage of their own chips. On the other hand, they considered to seize the market that Huawei had lost due to the shortage of chips. Therefore, they also increased their stock of chips. In 2020, the world’s major mobile phone manufacturers have substantially increased their chip purchases, of whichapplePurchased 53.62 billion U.S. dollars, ranking first, with a year-on-year increase of 24.0%; Samsung purchased 36.42 billion U.S. dollars, ranking second, with an increase of 20.4% year-on-year; Huawei purchased 19.09 billion U.S. dollars, ranking third, with a year-on-year decrease of 23.5%; Xiaomi purchased 8.79 billion U.S. dollars, Ranked eighth, the highest in history, with a year-on-year increase of 26.0%. The increase in consumer electronics demand has led to a sharp increase in orders for consumer-grade chips, occupying a large number of chip foundry companies’ production capacity, superimposing the advanced manufacturing processes used in consumer-grade chips, and higher profit margins, further compressing the production capacity of automotive chip foundry.
3.The use of new energy vehicles’ bicycle chips has increased significantly
The automobile industry is developing towards electrification, intelligence, networking and sharing.As the concept of the “new four modernizations” gains popularity, the market has put forward higher requirements for the electrification and intelligence of automobiles. However, the realization of many of its functions is based on automotive semiconductors, which will bring unprecedented development to the automotive chip market. According to data from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the number of on-board chips for modern cars is increasing, and the chip usage of new energy cars is generally higher than that of traditional fuel cars. In 2017, China‘s traditional fuel vehicle chip usage was 580/vehicle, while the average number of chips for new energy vehicles was 813/vehicle.The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that by 2022, the number of chips used in China’s traditional fuel vehicles will be 934 per unit, while ChinaGuoxin EnergyThe average number of chips in automobiles will be as high as 1,459 per vehicle. With the rapid increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the dual drive accompanied by the large increase in the amount of bicycle chips for new energy vehicles will lead to a boom in the automotive chip market, and there will be a phenomenon that demand exceeds supply.
Supply side:High barriers + chip industry chain supply problems
Automotive chips are extremely demanding.Compared with consumer chips and general industrial chips, automotive-grade chips have stricter requirements in terms of temperature, humidity, error rate, and use time, resulting in a long development cycle and greater difficulty. At the same time, due to the personal safety involved, extremely high safety and reliability are required. It is understood that compared to consumer-grade and industrial-grade chips, automotive-grade chips require that the chip can withstand a temperature range of -40°C-155°C, with an error rate strictly controlled at 0, and a service life of up to 15 years. It took as long as 30 years. It is difficult for other suppliers to enter the automotive chip supply chain in the short term.
andchipTechnology is mostly monopolized by Western manufacturers。The concentration of automotive chip manufacturers is high. According to statistics, NXP, Infineon and Renesas are among the top three in the global automotive electronics market share. Overall, the global automotive chip supplier competition is more concentrated, with TOP5 market share of nearly 50%, and TOP8 market share of more than 60%. From the perspective of market share, European, American and Japanese companies have a huge lead, accounting for 92% of the total, while Chinese companies only account for 3%. The superposition of the two major factors of high-tech barriers and monopolistic behavior has resulted in fewer new entrants in the industry, slower capacity expansion and mostly limited by the operating conditions of the leading companies. When the downstream demand is in volume, the upstream capacity cannot quickly match it. It is also one of the important reasons why the current shortage of chips continues.
2.Under the influence of the epidemic, the production of various links in the chip industry chain is reduced, and the inventory is insufficient
epidemicMakechipAll links of the industry chainDecreased production levels.From February to February 2020, the epidemic has led to the suspension of production in many places around the world. Due to the uncertainty of future demand, the chip industry chain has cut demand from OEM to upstream foundry, and the upstream foundry has booked a large amount of capacity. Reduction, the overall inventory of the industry is low, not enough to cope with the market outlook for the outbreak of demand. In the second half of 2020, domestic automobile demand has recovered more than expected. Chip IC factories’ orders surged 1-2 times from May to June in 20 years, and further increased to 3-4 times from October to December, but upstream wafer production capacity could not keep up with demand. With rapid growth, the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry chain has continued to intensify since May-June 20, and the chip delivery cycle as of May 2021 is as long as one year. In addition, in addition to the epidemic, some other events and disasters also restrict the production of chips, such as:
On February 13, 2021, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurred in the eastern seas of Fukushima, Japan, affecting the production of semiconductor materials and foundries such as Shin-Etsu Chemical, SUMCO, and Renesas Electronics;
In February 2021, a cold wave in Texas hit, and NXP and Infineon’s Austin plants shut down. The former is expected to lose one month of production capacity, and the latter is expected to resume its original production in June 2021.
On March 19, 2021, a fire at Renesas Electronics’ Naka factory caused the production of 12-inch chips to be suspended, of which about two-thirds of the products are automotive chips, and full production is expected to resume at the end of May;
Since May 2021, the epidemic has intensified in the semiconductor production areas of Malaysia, Taiwan, and other places, which has also affected the supply of chips to a certain extent.
The earthquake in Japan, the cold wave in Texas, and the fire in Renesas have affected the production of major MCU manufacturers such as Renesas Electronics, NXP, and Infineon. The delivery of orders has been postponed, which has worsened the shortage of chip supply.
In general, the current shortage of automotive chips is caused by a combination of many factors. As a technology-intensive industry, the chip industry’s high barriers and the industry characteristics of leading companies’ technology monopoly superimposed on supply and demand imbalances have led to slower overall capacity expansion. In the short term It is difficult for the supply to increase significantly. Therefore, the problem of chip shortage will affect new energy sources for a long time in the future.Automobile industryIt will have a continuous impact and will pose severe challenges to the stability of the supply chain of major auto companies, the adjustment of production rhythm, and cost control.
(Article source: SMM)
(Editor in charge: DF545)
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