TEL AVIV – With 97% of the ballots scrutinized, the stalemate in Israeli politics is clearer: a new government Netanyahu with the support of Naftali Bennett it does not get the 61 seats needed to make up a majority. They stop at 59, including the religious-nationalist right of Betzalel Smotrich (6 seats), which leads for the first time in the Knesset also Itamar Ben Gvir, “The settler’s advocate”, considered an extremist even by many sections of Likud.
Elections in Israel, the vote in the shadow of Covid. And it’s still a referendum on Netanyahu’s future
by Sharon Nizza
With 30 seats and a gap of 13 from the second party (Yesh Atid of Yair Lapid, 17 seats), Netanyahu is the winner of these elections, but, as in the three previous elections of the last two years, if he fails to put in standing a coalition, in the realm of proportional even 30 seats are not the salvation. And setting up a coalition after the allies’ scorched earth over the years seems to be a more difficult undertaking than ever.
Israel elections, head to head in exit polls. Likud first party, alliances puzzle remains
by Sharon Nizza
While the fourth elections fell with perfect timing, with the electoral campaign coinciding with the vaccination, a possible return to the polls in the summer is not propitious: in the midst of the trial phase of the trial of the prime minister which resumes on April 5, and with the attenuated vaccine effect. And if, despite the worldwide acknowledged success of the inoculation campaign, it won 30 seats – losing 6 to right-wing opponents – there is no guarantee of a clearer victory. So it is critical to find the 61.
Israeli bombing of Gaza: retaliation after the launch of a rocket on the day of the vote
The most discussed scenario concerns the support of a Netanyahu government by Ra’am, the party of Mansour Abbas, an Arab parliamentarian who left the United Arab List precisely to support a pragmatic line that does not preclude support for a right-wing government. The exit polls did not detect them, while the real data gives them 4 or 5 seats. Here it remains difficult to think of the coexistence between the party that gathers the Islamic vote and the nationalist right that opposes any dialogue with the Palestinians. Although Ra’am’s pragmatic position may surprise and at the moment Abbas, who is doing everything to be the tip of the balance, declares that “he does not exclude anyone who does not exclude him”. Netanyahu’s emissaries are now working on another option, looking for deserters among the opposition – absurdly even between Blue and White of Benny Gantz (8 seats), with which he has just broken the government alliance.
Elections in Israel: now the ace could be the Arab party of Mansour Abbas
by Sharon Nizza
The “anti Bibi” can achieve a majority by putting together an unlikely coalition with Arab parties, leftists, secular and religious nationalists, in which the only glue would be the will to send Netanyahu home. Another option: 15 ultra-Orthodox seats join the opposing team in Netanyahu, without Arabs and without Lieberman (the only one who wouldn’t sit with the haredim). There is a precedent when Rabin in 1992 he made the very secular people of Meretz coexist with the religious of Shas. But Netanyahu’s real hope is that on Friday, after the count of half a million ballots of those who voted outside their seats, the two coveted seats will come from there.
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