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The event that caused a sensation in international public opinion last week was that the three parties that won the German Chancellor’s election completed negotiations on forming a cabinet on November 24 and are about to be sworn in. What caused a sensation in particular: For China, the government’s governance program is very different from Merkel’s era, and basically stands on the opposite side of China, at least compared with Merkel’s era.
This situation occurs because the pro-American Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party of the three parties actually control the key and powerful sectors of the new German government, while the pro-Russian Social Democratic Party, the major party in the government, is under great pressure. Making a difference is a big question mark.
The new German government is constrained by two small parties
From the perspective of policy propositions or the occupation of positions in powerful government departments, the influence of the pro-American Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party on the new German government is obvious.
First of all, from the perspective of the policy propositions of the new government, the influence of the two small parties on the new German government is clear at a glance, especially the China policy.
Regarding China policy, the ruling coalition document mentioned Taiwan for the first time in the German government’s policy, stating: “Any change in the status quo of the Taiwan Strait must be peaceful and mutually agreed. Under the framework of the EU’s one-China policy, We support democratic Taiwan’s participation in relevant international organizations.” The essence of this policy is to “intensify efforts to maintain Taiwan’s status quo, try to include Taiwan in international organizations such as the World Health Organization, and try to seek cooperation to allow Taiwan to participate in technical international organizations, and Taiwan’s capabilities It will be very popular.” Whether this policy is correct or not, but putting forward demands on China’s internal affairs is itself a serious problem.
In the field of human rights, the document states that “we clearly deal with China’s human rights violations, especially in Xinjiang. The principle of “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong must be re-established.” Here, the Hong Kong issue is also China’s internal affair, and the new government will raise the issue in this way. Cause problems, let alone solve them.
On the issue of forced labor, the agreement stated that “we support the EU’s proposal to ban imports from forced labor.” When referring to the EU’s expected mechanism for tracking forced labor products, the agreement said: “The law on due diligence of companies in the supply chain will remain unchanged and be improved if necessary.”
Regarding the China-EU Investment Agreement, the document said: “Due to various reasons, the EU Council is currently unable to approve the EU-China Investment Agreement.” This is interpreted as: As long as China’s sanctions against members of the European Parliament are in place, the European Parliament will This investment agreement will not be passed.
The new German government has included Sino-German relations in the scope of negotiations with the United States, and at the same time strengthened consultations with the European Union on this.
In terms of cooperation with the United States, the document states: “We seek to conduct close transatlantic coordination on China policy and cooperate with like-minded countries to reduce strategic dependence.” Such a position is at least suspected of anti-China alliance with the United States.
According to the document, the intergovernmental consultations between Germany and China will continue, but “more prior consultations will be held with the European Union, and officials of the European Commission may join them on a topic-by-topic basis.” In this regard, the document also calls for an agreement with Japan. Similar arrangements. This is the first time that the new German government mentioned the Indo-Pacific region in the alliance agreement. The document says: “For us, Asia is no longer just about China.” In this regard, Germany as an extraterritorial country also shares the same position as the United States.
The document’s expectation for China’s diplomacy is: “Our expectation for China’s foreign policy is that it will play a responsible role for the peace and stability of neighboring countries.” The three political parties stated that they advocate the settlement of the South China Sea and the South China Sea on the basis of international law of the sea. Territorial disputes in the East China Sea, and hope that China and other nuclear-weapon states will be more effectively included in nuclear disarmament and arms control.
Judging from the above content, the conclusion is obvious: Sino-German relations will enter a very sensitive and uneasy stage, at least in the first year of the new government, there is a high probability that this will happen, and diplomatic collisions between China and Germany may be inevitable. It is precisely because of this that, Janka Otell, Director of the European Commission for Foreign Relations in Asia, said: “This opens a new chapter in German-Chinese relations.” Compared to the Merkel era, this is probably the case.
However, the EU’s diplomatic authority in China believes that the new German government has not yet been formed, and we still need to look at the specific actions below it. “It is mostly speculation now.”
The above-mentioned position of the new German government is not the traditional policy position of the Social Democratic Party, but the position of the pro-American German Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party. The big party, the Social Democratic Party, in the new government has obeyed the positions of the two smaller parties. This constitutes one of the basic political features of the new German government.
Another point is that the new German government’s China policy has been consistent with that of the United States, whether it is Taiwan issues, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, human rights and other fields, and even China’s policies in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and even the Indo-Pacific region, and even nuclear weapons. Above, the new government plans to form a close coordination mechanism with the United States, and the policy positions are the same.
But objectively speaking, with the exception of the Taiwan issue, other diplomatic positions of the new government are not new to the international community. They are only relatively new to the Merkel era. However, at the implementation level, it does give people a very bad impression. EU business leaders in China told the author: Belberk, the Green Party co-chairman, who is likely to be the foreign minister of the new German government, is very unfamiliar with diplomatic work. “I hope that Chinese diplomats can relax her at work.” Very popular. In this regard, the author said: She stated that one of the new government’s China policies is to allow Taiwan to join international organizations. If she encounters the Taiwan issue as soon as she takes office, and the results are handled badly, things will become complicated.
And according to the author’s understanding, at least some EU countries are skeptical of the foreign policy of the new German government. At the same time, a person from the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China told the author: I am very worried that this female foreign minister will make things very complicated.
At the same time, the current ministerial positions in the core power departments of the new German government are reported to be mainly held by the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party of the three ruling parties, including the positions of Minister of Foreign Affairs, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy, and Minister of Finance.
As a result, the internal and foreign policies of the new German government will surely be deeply influenced by the above two small parties. The characteristics of the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party are that they emphasize values and ideologies, and act publicly, with strong opposition parties. Features. This constitutes another basic political feature of the new German government. All this is expected to be a lot of trouble for China.
We still need to see in the future, but we also need to be prepared
The situation of the future bilateral relations between China and the new German government has been roughly determined, but it still needs to be observed. After all, the new German government has not yet taken office; at the same time, China must also be prepared to meet new challenges, because this will affect the world situation and China’s external environment. The impact of will not be underestimated. The author believes that, based on the experience of recent years, the Chinese government should attach great importance to and properly handle the following points when dealing with this new challenge, including: distinguishing between officials and citizens; legislating to solve the problem of Taiwan’s entry into the international society; and attaching importance to development Relations with old European countries that are not members of the European Union.
The author first believes that the main reason why the future development of Sino-German relations still needs to be observed at present is that although the German Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party value values and ideology and their behavior is public, the future of German Chancellor Schultz is still unclear; At the same time, the Social Democratic Party, the largest party in the ruling coalition it represents, has a long and close relationship with China.
EU business leaders who have close economic and trade relations with China told the author: “Schultz is a smart and very pragmatic person.” This sentence implies: in a severe world epidemic, if Sino-German relations become too rigid and affect He will deal with the German economy “pragmatically”, at least he will not allow the Green Party and the Liberal Democratic Party to act freely. On the other hand, in addition to being pro-Russian, the German Social Democratic Party also has a close relationship with China and a long history of exchanges. This at least means that the communication channels between China and Germany exist and are unobstructed. This will happen when there are problems in the future bilateral relations. , Is conducive to solving the problem.
And if there are real problems in the relationship between China and the new German government in the future, China must act cautiously. The author believes that based on the experience of the past one or two years, the first one should be: the struggle and game with Germany is limited to the German government, and German businesses and ordinary people must not be involved. Otherwise, it will not only harm the economic and trade interests of both sides, but also harm the innocent, and cause a more profound and bad influence on China.
As for the Taiwan issue, a current trend is that the Taiwan issue may become an international issue within a certain range, and its roots are focused on Taiwan’s entry into the international community and participation in the activities of international organizations.
The author believes that China must legislate to resolve the issue of Taiwan’s entry into the international community and its participation in its activities. At present, China’s entry into the international community and participation in related activities by Taiwan is basically based on domestic policies rather than laws. When China negotiates with other countries or international organizations on this issue, it is often difficult to get the understanding and acceptance of other parties. For example, the World Health Organization has criticized China for not allowing the DPP government to participate in the World Health Organization’s global fight against the epidemic. Because of the fact that Taiwan was allowed to join the World Health Organization by the Chinese government during the Ma Ying-jeou era, and became an observer country, the Kuomintang government was allowed to participate in WHO activities, but the DPP government was not allowed. This is a typical domestic policy, not a law. , And the WHO, as an agency of the United Nations system, cannot and has no obligation to intervene in China’s internal politics. Therefore, the National People’s Congress of China must formulate a law to regulate Taiwan’s entry into the international community, and must seek truth from facts, otherwise the current policy operations will inevitably be difficult to sustain, especially in the current Sino-US relations. Cause widespread international conflicts.
Finally, in view of the current reality and situation of China-EU relations, in addition to developing relations with the EU, China should also attach great importance to developing relations with non-EU countries in old Europe. The necessity for this is that once the relationship between China and the EU falls sharply or breaks down in the future, these old European countries can act as a bridge to both parties in the conflict. Moreover, many of these old European countries that are not members of the European Union are developed countries themselves. For example, Switzerland has many business opportunities with China and themselves.
(Note: The author is the secretary-general of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher of the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author’s personal views. The editor’s mailbox [email protected])