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Polls ups and downs in Germany’s election situation, variable_News_中国网

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Xinhua News Agency, Berlin, August 11th (International Observation) The ups and downs of the polls and Germany’s elections are changing

Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Yuan

The German media recently published a survey report by INSA Public Opinion Research Institute and Public Opinion Research Company, which showed that the support rate of the German Union Party (consisting of the Christian Democratic Union and its sister party, the Christian Social Union) and the Green Party has recently declined. The support rate of the Democratic Party (Social Democratic Party) has increased significantly.

Some media and analysts believe that the July floods and the recent rise of the new crown epidemic are the reasons for the changes in the support rate of the parties, and the trend of the epidemic will also affect the future direction of the support rate. These changes may bring new variables to the Bundestag elections to be held in September.

Approval rates are mixed

The results of this poll show that the current support rate of the Coalition Party, which was ranked first in support before, is 26%, which is 3 percentage points lower than in mid-to-early July. An increase of 3 percentage points. The support rate of the Green Party, which had previously ranked second, was 18%, a sharp drop of 6 percentage points from its peak in early May. The previous third-ranked Social Democratic Party’s approval rate is 18%, which is 3 percentage points higher than the low point in early May, and has been on par with the Green Party. The support rates of the remaining three major parties, the Liberal Democratic Party (Liberal Democratic Party), the German Choice Party, and the Left Party were 12%, 11%, and 7% respectively, roughly the medians in recent months, and the support rates of these three parties The overall change is not large.

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According to the election rules of the German Bundestag, voters vote for the supporting party, and the party with the highest number of votes has the priority to form a cabinet. This means that, according to the current poll support rate, the Coalition Party will likely dominate the cabinet formation process, and its candidate Amin Raschelt will be more likely to become the future prime minister and succeed the current Prime Minister Merkel.

However, the personal support rate data of the prime minister candidate in this poll shows that the prime minister candidate Olaf Scholz recommended by the Social Democratic Party is the most popular, with a support rate of 27%, and the support rate of Raschett is only 14%. The Green Party Annalena Belbok was elected at 13%.

It is not difficult to see that the Social Democratic Party has recently shown a strong upward trend, whether it is the party support rate or the personal support rate of the prime minister candidate. A few months ago, the Green Party, which once tied or even surpassed the Coalition in other company polls, showed signs of decline. Although the Coalition Party still maintains the highest approval rate, Raschelt’s low approval rate obviously also sounded a wake-up call for the party.

Disaster situation and epidemic situation bring variables

Many German media pointed out that the floods in July were an important factor in the change in approval ratings. A video circulated on social networks showed that when German President Steinmeier visited the disaster area on July 17, Rachelt, who was in the back row, chatted and laughed with a number of fellow officials, and laughed at one time. This video caused widespread criticism of Rashet from the public and politicians, and it also affected the support rate of the Coalition Party.

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As the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of the Federal Government, Scholz, the candidate of the Social Democratic Party, visited the disaster area several times after the disaster, and announced an emergency relief plan, planning to allocate 400 million euros (about 3 billion yuan) to help the victims rebuild. This has gained a lot of popularity for Scholz.

Although the Green Party candidate Bell Burke has also visited the disaster area many times, the Green Party is not the ruling party at the moment, and this move will inevitably be a political show. At the same time, her recent series of scandals, including water in her resume and suspected plagiarism in her new book, have also dragged down her approval ratings.

In addition to the flood disaster, the change in the support rate is also closely related to the prevention and control situation of the new crown epidemic in Germany. Many analysts pointed out that if the epidemic situation improves, the support rate of the ruling coalition party and the Social Democratic Party will rise; if the epidemic is severe, the ruling party will be criticized and the support rate will fall.

At this stage, Germany is in the early stages of the fourth wave of outbreaks, and the infection rate in 7 days (the number of newly confirmed cases per 100,000 people in 7 days) has continued to rise in the past month. The federal government is arguing about countermeasures. The focus includes whether the city should be closed again, whether people who have completed the vaccination should be given more freedom, and whether nucleic acid testing should be charged to promote people’s vaccination. The different opinions of different parties will greatly affect their support rate.

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The ruling combination may have new possibilities

It is now less than 50 days before the election of the Bundestag on September 26. According to the support rate of the German political parties at this stage, the new ruling coalition may have multiple combinations.

Previously, the Coalition Party, the Green Party, and the Liberal Democratic Party were considered the most likely to form a ruling coalition, and their approval ratings combined exceeded 50%. The representative colors of the three parties are black, green, and yellow, which are exactly the three colors of the Jamaican flag, so they are widely referred to by the media as the “Jamaica combination”.

As the support rate of the Social Democratic Party has risen in recent polls, and the support rates of the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party, and the Liberal Democratic Party add up to nearly 50%, there is another possibility for the formation of the ruling coalition. The representative colors of the three parties are red, green, and yellow, so they are called “traffic light combinations” by the media. However, because the Liberal Democratic Party leans to the right on the German political spectrum, and its policy propositions are more difficult to be compatible with the Social Democratic Party and the Green Party, the probability of this combination is relatively low.

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